Strong To Severe Weather Possible on Wednesday

Latest visible satellite image from this Tuesday morning. A cold frontal trough is taking shape into the GOM (Gulf of Mexico)..shown. The Low over Texas is in the upper levels with a surface low further to the east in developmental stages. High pressure is gradually easing off the east coast of Florida with very light winds over much of the state gradually becoming SE-SSE today and S to SSW-SW on Wednesday as the high pressure moves further away and the front approaches.

TODAY: Peninsular Florida in the prime time of niceties today. Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs (do I hear a low 80F somewhere?)  except near the beaches and their cooler sea surface temperatures. Light winds and only a few clouds except toward the Panhandle and North Florida where denser clouds are producing potentially light rainfall over the Panhandle or at least dense cloud cover.  The image above is annotating areas of potential weather wary concerns for Wednesday. More on this in the next image.


Overnight lows tonight in the 60Fs state wide as clouds and moisture increases and winds become due south and pick up toward the 10mph range and stronger toward daybreak.


WEDNESDAY: Front crossing through. Winds becoming S-SSW at 12-20mph, possibly gusty. Increasing clouds Central and South right after day break with rains and possible storms already in progress NW Florida approaching the West coast from near Sarasota and north then across toward JAX early through mid-morning.  Winds at various levels of the atmosphere per the morning GFS Model Forecast Run show  sufficient speed shear / bulk shear  and even a little directional shear toward NE Florida Southward toward Ocala/Daytona/Sanford/North Titusville working into early afternoon, through various levels of the atmosphere to support winds gusts in the 40-55mph range in any heavy rain storm or thunderstorm. Thus, believe there COULD be a severe thunderstorm watch in affect at various times for different areas beginning early day through early evening (South Florida). Image for 10AM tomorrow morning per the GFS run with personal annotations...below:

In red is where I'm thinking lies a potential for severe winds at or above 58mph in gusts or even brief straight-line in any thunderstorm that can organize. Could be a brief tornado 'spin-off', but organized Deep Layer directional wind sheer is not really appearing to be sufficient for a flat out call on such formations as of this morning. South of the most southern red line, potential strong winds below severe category. Note that there is a second front to come some time toward overnight Friday night/early Saturday.

 
WEDNESDAY (CONT'D:) Rainfall to progress from west to east (and southward) during early to mid morning, first impacting the west side of Florida as far South as Sarasota well before reaching far East Central. Could be hearing strong to severe storm reports filtering in by mid-morning well before rainfall reaches the east coast. The Storm Prediction Center early today has ALL of Florida under a "See Text", meaning they are watching the situation, but not ready to hoist any 'for certainties' for a severe potential. If that were the case, Florida would be in what is referred to by their stringent guidelines as at least a "Slight Risk" (for severe weather). "See Text" in this case could mean that wide-spread severe weather is not expected, in which case any alerts or warnings to be issued will be on a case by case basis, and are not of a high enough threat at this point for the state to be under closer scrutiny for a full blow 'threat' .  Rainfall should be reaching south of I-4 after 12-1pm and progress Southeast ward through the remainder of the state mid afternoon through mid-evening before ending all areas well before midnight Wednesday evening.


THURSDAY/FRIDAY: Westerly winds and partly cloudy skies with highs in the lower-mid 70Fs and lows in the 50Fs..partly cloudy. The second front is forecast so far to be crossing through overnight Friday night toward Saturday morning. The details on this boundary's passage will need to be refined as the time draws closer.


WEEKEND: Drier and much cooler to cold in the mornings. It is possible highs will never crack 60F Central and North on Saturday, with a slow warming trend albeit remaining below normal on Sunday. Cool start Monday morning with what might be a big recovery into mid-week next week as temperature recover to seasonal norms, if not a notch above those.

"Cloudy With A Chance of Meatballs"