Beginning of 'Convective Season' on Saturday?

Image showing 850mb (5000 ft) Dew point temperatures Country Wide . An indicator of the amount of moisture at that level in the atmosphere. Note how 'bone dry white' it is over Florida, the Northeast States, and much of the SW U.S

TODAY: That big system that swiped through Florida over the weekend was quite the dynamo in the moisture depletion category. This image above shows just that in the moisture level content over much of the eastern portion of the U.S. This could be close to being the temporal   few day period of relative drier air over Florida once we approach the weekend (as moisture increases) until the first cold snap this  upcoming winter. Very rich, moisture laden air resides toward the lower right hand portion of the image which we can look at in a moment.


All things aside , skin itching , brittle boned, eye watering, near Desert Southwest like (well, not quite) air resides over the Sunshine state through today and Wednesday. Thank goodness it will not last long lest the landmass turn into a dusty metamorphosis of random devaporizing. Poof in a exhale of dust.


All other commonalities aside, this could be the least of the last but not forgotten period of such absurdities in this category as the unclimatological winter of 2011-2012 ends and we head well into yet another season I suspect will also be non-'climatological', although in just exactly what way it is hard to say.


Quite cool this morning with a temperature around 46F at MLB alone, with the A1A strip running in the low-mid 50Fs. Today will be the coolest day of the lot around the clock. Rapid temperature drop in such conditions with the setting sun and very little wind. Wednesday morning near the beaches will be similar to today, but the morning lows will be most cool from a statewide perspective as high pressure now to the west which is squeezing out our atmosphere not only due to northerly mid-level winds off the U.S landmass, but also because we are under the descending side of that approaching system.  Sound the Severe Stability Index Alert, the sky is clear!  Wednesday to be another day like today, but the high pressure system will already be east of the state by mid-day allowing easterly winds to begin to offset the pattern, and slow moisturization commences. Wednesday will be a good 5F or more degrees warmer, but Thursday morn will be briefly 'cool' once again, but much warmer by afternoon. Heading into Friday afternoon we could be looking at  the "Big leap Forward" in temperatures while areas toward the Southern Plains are already well toward the upper 90Fs. 


Meanwhile, the high pressure starts to draw forth water from the Caribbean Well with winds from the southeast, ushering increasing moisture from the south and what looks to be a day of bona-fide thunder on Saturday toward mainly the West side of the state. This is the first day guidance has shown Precipitable water values reaching 2" since last October, and appears to be from late day convergence.

PWAT Saturday. Note all the moisture still yet to the South over the Caribbean.

 It is hard to tell from this image above, that a frontal boundary by this point in time will be sinking southward toward the state, with a better chance of showers and maybe thunder on Sunday nearly statewide, but not all encompassing. Looks like a 30-40% coverage type of day.  The boundary after this point is forecast to loiter and fizzle close to Central Florida but followed by another in similar fashion resulting in easterlies upward into the mid levels which continue to douse the atmosphere with moisture richness. Although rain chances will be bouncing around hither and yon, with rain 'chances' in the forecast more often than not, it is hard to pin point that far out in the future the detailed hows and whys other than SE flow..with possible onshore ocean showers converting to thunder along the west side. So be it, or not; time will tell..it always does.