Increase in Rain/Storm Chances Each Day - Easter Preliminary Outlook

Shown is now the THIRD upper low in the same amount of weeks to enter the Desert SW Region. The question has been which direction will it take, to the North or toward the South as has been the case with the previous two systems. Latest guidance reads "South", and so, this post follows on that premise.

TODAY: Storms over the Gulf of Mexico, as seen in the water vapor image above. Increasing moisture could lead to another morning of low clouds/fog Tuesday once again with a shallow inversion present ..this would burn off in locations where fog exists and blows east through mid-morning. Otherwise, sea breezes at play on Tuesday could result in inland showers and perhaps thunder to be determined in the next 24 hours. So far, it appears showers Tuesday, and maybe Thunder Wednesday and/or Thursday.


FROM THERE we progress to Friday under the supposition that the upper level low shown above will progress first toward the ENE then E then drop south as was the case with the previous two systems. The last one took quite a drop though from the upper Midwest (Illinois) ..something in between the two paths could eventually evolve, but it is simply too early in the game plan to be definitive. Otherwise, Friday and Thursday late appear to be good days for rain chances (more so Friday)..and one of those days could have strong storms contingent upon outlying factors that are TBD.


SATURDAY: Frontal boundary to approach 'around this day time phase' either way, either track of low. And as such, the surface front glides through followed by the supporting mid-level trough within 24 hours. This leads to a surge of onshore winds and shallow enough moisture to bring in clouds and perhaps light rain as well.


SUNDAY: (EASTER) - Preliminary: GFS has been consistent the past 4 runs to bring in stronger onshore winds overnight Saturday night or Sunday, with the latest run as soon as late day Saturday. Easter Sunday, then, could result in cloudy skies and winds from the ENE-E at 20-30mph. Not a good day for Beach Side Services. To be monitored for continuity and subsequent updates here. 

Late today, 700mb analysis shows mid level High Pressure approaching Florida. and moving eastward with time as the low to the west moves east as well.

But first, we have the next 4 days to monitor. All in all, high temperatures could be held back due to high clouds (some days) but still in the 80Fs (at least). Low cloud mornings, clearing and warm, with an ever increasing chance of showers inland and working toward (or trying to) the East Coast early-mid evening as a result of increasing instability , moisture, and west to east mid level winds ahead of an onward (eastward) moving area of high pressure over the state of Florida. So far, Friday looks like a good chance of rain statewide, especially South Half in the mid-late afternoon, and north half earlier.