Storms Today West Interior Toward JAX /TLH and PNS

RECAP: Image above shows highlighted area in yesterday's post...in the purple zone.  As it was, much of the region thought to have strongest activity there and in orange (more isolated) came close to fruition as can be seen below. There was several severe thunderstorm warnings late afternoon and into the mid-evening, yet only a few reports came in, those to the north from 'wind damage' caused by fallen trees. Thus, we will never know if it was actually severe category winds that caused the trees to fall. Otherwise, there was tremendous amounts of lightning activity, but frequent to excessive lightning does not quantify a storm as being severe. One strike from one small thunder-'shower' is just as deadly as 5000. Often , in fact, it is the first strike or first few..or the last strikes that do the bodily damage and not the frequent ones in between. Thus, 'when it roars head indoors' (if it is not too late). Because the damage can be done before one hears the roars.
Below is a sample of lightning (the white cluster last night) as well as some of the warnings, only a few samples. That 4th area which was two warnings at once correlates with the most lightning.

TODAY: Totally different story. Ridge in the mid levels is lifting across much of North Central Today messing with steering currents. Most activity in the area of interest for the blog will be noted below down the North interior toward the west side of the state, mainly after 5-6pm when sea breezes  and boundaries meet . Temps aloft are still cold enough for stronger storms with tiny hail , strong wind gusts, and frequent lightning, although do not think it will be the show we had last night.

We can see here the Craven Brooks significant Severe Weather parameter was getting 'juiced up' well before any of the storms in Central had even begun late yesterday! But it was not long after ward the chaos erupted from a few single storms from Daytona And North to one big  lightning parade, much of which was abetted by a series of propagating storms all the south from SW Florida which worked northward.

Today's Areas of Interest in General with Captions.

TUESDAY: High pressure still in control while a low pressure trough aloft and a weak frontal boundary begin to approach the state. Believe similar conditions tomorrow will exist but with slightly better steering toward the East than today. All in all..we can probably shift the northern area of interest to the east another 50 miles in general..if not more so from Flagler County North and  perhaps the DAB area. The trough will be sinking south into the late afternoon and all night, some activity in which case could approach Brevard's more northern area from the NW-NNW after dark.


WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY: Two frontal boundaries really are in play on Wednesday with one near Central and the other much further north. Either way might not make a difference since sea breeze interactions will be the secondary if not primary focus, ample instability, and slightly stronger winds aloft. Expecting thunder as far south as portions of South Central and possibly lasting late night east central portions south of New Smyrna Beach as the first boundary works south.


By Thursday the southern boundary washes out with the second one sinking south to replace it. Wednesday 's activity should break the dam for South Florida, so  we could see near statewide activity Thursday afternoon, but the greater details at this time are beyond even bothering to contemplate.


FRIDAY: The secondary boundary will press to South Florida over night Friday night at the latest, with the bigger focus South of I -4 on Friday, possibly beginning early on in the day. After dark strong and stacked high pressure builds off the mid Atlantic coast behind this boundary and into the Western Atlantic, followed and accompanied by deep ENE-NE winds at the surface and aloft blowing across warmer ocean waters and accompanied by still cold air aloft. This could bring a big shift in the pattern through Sunday with timing being an issue. 


SATURDAY: Could see early showers and some thunder east side spreading to the W-SW coast by night fall. Then on Sunday/Monday time frame looks more like a secondary wind surge accompanied by deeper ENE-NE winds under cold air aloft and above warmer ocean waters  which could send in surges of convective bands of rain showers, mainly for the coast, but spreading inland during the day as thunder.


BEYOND: The issue with the tropics remains uncertain for earlier next week. One model run will show a n Atmospheric Tsunami working north accompanied by heavy rains, the next run will show most of the activity skirting to the east of the state. It seems most likely though that by early to mid next week the next change in the pattern will commence and that if nothing more, the wet season will officially have begun no matter what the chain of events it is that unfolds.