Thunder Likely in "Pockets" Today, Especially East Side

Weak Thunderstorm Hovering into Cape Canaveral on Tuesday

TODAY: Short post today due to time constraints. Upper low that was near JAX yesterday lifting NW into Central Georgia as mid level trough that was across North Central weakens and lifts north. High pressure ridge beginning to build into South Florida will result between those two in stronger WSW to ENE steering today holding off sea- breezes north of Sebastian except toward the immediate barrier islands as winds at 2000 ft are two strong for much more than a shallow boundary.


Further south, Lake Breezes along the North side of the Lake and the better chance of the sea breeze east of it could enhanced convergence and storms especially since latest guidance shows much stronger instability being advected into this area off the Atlantic.

Showers with thunder already moving in on the west coast. What effect this will have on locations along and north of I-4 is unknown. An outflow boundary is already noted ahead of these storms showers which will move toward the WNW-NW through the late morning hours into the early afternoon. Convergence might be enhanced over the east 1/2 of the state as heating commenced, but then again, so might cloud cover there.

South of I-4 is where the better likelihood of an semblance of a sea-breeze is possible near the coast but further in from the coast over SE Florida. There is some cloud cover in this area this morning but it is moving around a bit and might dissolve itself by noon time.


THURSDAY: SAL air mass impinges into South Florida by late day and might deter activity most of south Florida but Central and North will not be fazed. Activity will be a bit more isolated Thursday and Friday as the dry air mass lifts north across Central by late Friday or Saturday and further north on Sunday, as activity resumes over South Florida by Saturday and more areas on Monday as it shrinks in size. In short, Central looks pretty dry on Saturday but more active Sunday and Monday.

TUESDAY, Cape Canaveral

BEYOND: Another SAL surge is seen to move in to the state by early next week toward mid-week which will be the next bone of contention.