Strong-Marginal Severe Storms Through Wednesday, Tropical Stand By Potential

Image not all inclusive as all along the east coast and along and North of I-4 have the 'red potential for strong

TODAY: Deep mid-upper level trough which is quite unusually placed so far south continues in place extending north to south from near James Bay toward the Deep South and well into the Gulf. Surface ridge south of Florida places SW-WSW storm steering currents across the state between those two features. 

KSC sounding shows mid-level temperatures have dropped back down a degree or two, and more cooling could occur this afternoon at that level.  It also appears a sea breeze will form potentially as far north as Volusia, but more likely Brevard and South to get toward  US1/I-95 north of the Big Lake. Highest instability across the South 1/2 of the state and toward the east coast of Central, but this will be greatly contingent on cloud cover across Volusia. Shear and the presence of divergence aloft north of I-4 strongest but greatest combination of divergence and instability could be toward Brevard late today toward sunset. Moisture no issue with varying dry and moist slots throughout the column of storm bearing heights in the atmosphere. 

Given the factors today, there could be small hail (non-damaging), and strong wind gusts toward 40-55mph, especially after 5pm, but all storms could contain frequent lightning and some excessively so especially where outflow boundaries collide with the east coast sea breeze and as storms work against that breeze toward the east coast after 5pm south of I-4 and more so near and south of 528 to Ft. Pierce. Onset earliest along and north of I-4 with outflows working south from the north increasing shear at the mid-levels Central and low level shear on approaching activity due to sea breeze along the East Coast Brevard/Indian River/St Lucie counties where also low level coastal surface vorticity/slight helicity could be present. It all comes down to timing though, and if late, things could change quickly after 5-6pm for Brevard south to St. Lucie. Waterspouts might become an issue, or funnel clouds might be observed in one or two instances as well. Dragon flies are hovering this morning.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Differing variations of this theme continue, with perhaps a better chance of stronger storms on Tuesday..but all in all it's a day by day, play by play.

BEYOND/TROPICS: Surface ridge continues to be forecast to lift to Central by later in the weak as a tropical disturbance is forecast to become a depression by the two main models approaching Cuba. The latest GFS (two consecutive runs) as well as the latest ECMWF made available early this A.M. both show this disturbance to curve around the southern periphery of this ridge toward South Florida which cannot lift out due to the departing trough to the north that is effecting our weather the past two days through mid-week this week. 

This would be good timing for such a scenario since a trough of this depth now in place would by then no longer be taking hold (for so long) at this early time of the year (that is, for a trough this deep that looks more like fall). 

The GFS takes this disturbance as a solid tropical storm up the west coast ..but the latter run now coming in as I type takes it up the Center of the state. The ECMWF is showing a similar scenario.

Thus, by Monday (this time next week) we MIGHT already be in some form of a tropical alert mode for strong gusty winds, heavy rainfall totals in a short amount of time, and a tornado watch. All this is preliminary considering how far out in time this is...time will tell.  The GFS then brings a second disturbance to follow the same general course but a bit further north toward the east coast, but the signal is very very weak right now and it is so far out in time the ECMWF (the European model) does not even go this far out. Crystal ball mode. 

In summary, confidence level has doubled since yesterday in the first case for 'something' to effect Florida next week..this will likely be heralded across all air- waves today and on TV at some point, but it is not definite.