Temperatures to Continue Above Normal Through Wednesday

Sunrise at Cape Canaveral, Florida in January (70F Degrees at time)

TODAY: Not much of a change locally within our current local and large-scale (synoptic) pattern. Closer investigation of model guidance, latest hourly surface observations,  and the KSC morning sounding at 6AM shows a low level high pressure centered well to the east of the state with the ridge axis  stretching westward across Central Florida. In the mid-levels the high pressure center (aloft) is only about 100-200 miles east of the state. This set up is making for ESE winds (light) at the lowest atmospheric level, then veering more from the south at about 5000 through 18,000 ft above those low level winds. 

Also shown is two inversions with each ridge axis. One caps off a very shallow deck of only about 200-400ft  above the ground making for fog (some fairly dense) nearest the ridge axis (Central Florida); the latter inversion is associated with the mid level ridge axis around 4700 ft. Above that level it is quite dry. Very little change in this particular set up is foreseen through Tuesday.

THUS: Some fog this morning, with rapid clearing by 8AM- 10AM. Highs similar to yesterday . There is a chance of patches of stratocumulus cloud decks appearing and disappearing in random fashion along that 5100 ft inversion located underneath the mid-level ridge axis near 11,000 ft from moisture trapped below either of those levels, especially after the fog burns off and re-materializes as a cloud deck aloft.  Otherwise, temperatures continuing to run about 7 - 14   degrees above normal with warmest overnight lows along the outer barrier islands, being surrounded by bodies of water on all sides.

The only change to occur into Wednesday will be cooler morning lows, especially along the East side of the state as low level winds begin to acquire a Southwest component (particularly Monday - Wednesday mornings); likewise, this will allow afternoon highs to become warmer in those same locations with less chance of a sea breeze (especially Tuesday and Wednesday) outside of any cloud patches that could develop.

BEYOND WEDNESDAY: Around the 17th now as when a front that continuously is being re-enforced but blocked from Florida because of the high pressure centers east of the state will finally begin to slide south. Guidance is split on whether that will occur on Wednesday night or a few days later. Most offices (official forecast offices) are siding with the Wednesday night into Thursday time frame, but will hold back in this post from being sold just yet (as they have also alluded to). The GFS has been doing pretty good this winter in the 6-10 day time frame. Either way though, not much precipitation if any is anticipated with the front as most of the energy associated with it will have ejected into the Northeast States before the front gets here. 

Since the Jet Stream remains north of I-10, the boundary will again like those of recent fronts be shallow. North winds though could advect cooler air in with mid-upper 50Fs for lows and highs in the 60Fs (Central and warmer South) for several days under high level cirrus clouds.

Hibiscus Petaled in Morning Dew

BEYOND THE BEYOND: As has been the GFS trend, heading out into untrustworthy territory time, the greater beyond shows a cold spell approaching toward the 22nd; however, the GFS bounces back and forth and all around with this scenario and has been doing so all winter in the long range (case in point, a few weeks ago it was forecasting it to be quite cold around the 18th with highs in the 40Fs and 50Fs).