Time for Shorts and Possibly Severe Weather Late Thursday Evening

Sunrise Service Observers Easter Morning in Cocoa Beach, Florida

TODAY: Sunny, pleasant, and mostly clear. Joyfully Beautified Easter To you!

MONDAY: Slight chance of late afternoon and early evening showers, possibly will need to introduce some thunder in a few areas along and east of I-95 along any sea breeze convergence boundaries after 4 or 5PM up and down the east coast as a front glides down the coast which will have only a minor impact on the temperatures.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: Initially northerly winds on Tuesday will swing to the east to east-southeast by nightfall and become more southeast on Wednesday . Highs in the mid-upper 70Fs near beaches but coolest along A1A to the dunes where ocean temperature effects of cool water will be ongoing into late April when an onshore wind prevails.

THURSDAY: Model guidance has been consistent for a least a rainy or stormy period sometime late day Thursday and more so over night toward the 10PM -3AM time frame. Although instability is not ample alone for strong storms, vertical velocities are nuts 'high' on the GFS model,  regardless,  with good mid-level lapse rates from cold air aloft and turning wind profiles could result in at least a severe thunderstorm if not tornado watch late Thursday. Much to watch for in this regard , but for now, a heads up. Either way, rain chances look quite good up to this point in time spreading across the state beginning early afternoon from the west and north and into Central Florida near or after sunset .

FRIDAY: Chance of rain continues from Central and South through at least noon time but quickly dwindles to zero as north winds set in. This time period will need even more fine tuning than the Thursday outlook to see exactly how long and where rain will linger. Good news is, there is almost no cold air behind this front. Hopefully for  "the warm air preferred"  this non-event temperature wise frontal boundary will set the trend. It will soon to be too late for much of a potent cold air mass to impact the area. The last cold spell was a good 10-20 degrees below normal with record lows set in many locations, sometimes consecutive mornings in a row.

BEYOND: Little chance of rain with a quick warm up to near normal temperatures and dry toward all off the following week.

"And he bent down..and scribbled something in the dirt..."

Record Low Highs and Low Lows to Slowly Warm through Easter

Temperature Spread Depiction Before Sunrise This Wednesday Morning
During the Full Moon at 5:27 AM on this March 27th

TODAY: Record lows this morning, a record low high at Vero yesterday. Winds much lighter today though so more pleasant. Another cold morning on tap for Thursday morning  with more record lows possible. Melbourne got down to 39F while the porch rested at 45F. Some patchy frost is possible Thursday morning before sunrise, especially from near Ocala and Northern Lake County up the northern spine of the state in lower lying areas as skies remain clear.

THURSDAY: As noted above in the morning, with a notable warming trend commencing by mid-late morning with highs mainly in the 60Fs. Temperatures still below normal though from 10F -20F degrees. Light NNW-N wind might become slightly onshore right at the beaches by mid-afternoon.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: Winds continuing to become NE-E to eventually SE-SSE as noted on the previous post for Easter. Morning lows from the Cape South notably warmer overnight Friday and through the weekend barely getting below 60F Saturday morning, but much cooler away from the beaches. Easter is the warmest day on tap until Monday when we could get above normal readings.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Guidance is finicky about what will happen with the next front, considering how far out in time this is as of today, that is not at all unusual. Although there could be a shot of showers or even thunder South Florida on Monday (interior), suspect further north on one or both days (that is Sunday/Monday) the east coast could see a late day cloud deck as a result of late day sea-breeze convergence, but rain chances look overall minimal or light at that.

BEYOND: So far, that next front goes through nearly unnoticed except for a cloud deck, but there are signs it could lay the foundation for a surface low to form near the Loop Current in the Gulf. If so, there would be a chance of severe weather in the forecast late next week around April 4th  or 5th. Still too far off to say with any degree of certainty. Otherwise, normal temperatures and pleasant until then beginning Easter Day.

Return to near Winter-Like Temperatures This Week

Prefrontal Trough (dashed black line) is moving east and south this afternoon. The parent cold front in blue lags 12-18 hours behind this boundary and will cross North Central to Central Florida over night

TODAY: Breezy SW-WSW winds 15-25mph with stronger gusts ahead of pre-frontal trough and parent cold front.  Although there is a chance of strong storms with this boundary as it moves down the state this afternoon, at this time it appears that sufficient moisture to support said activity will be drawn off the to northeast around the low centered over South Carolina, so chances look pretty slim except along the west coast as far south as Tampa Bay. This is not a guaranteed certainty, but radar trends support this line of thinking, at least so far. Otherwise, breezy and warm. Winds could be quite gusty in and near rain or thunder which is expected to enter the Beach Line area around 3pm or so. Now, whether any rain will be associated with the boundary is sketchy at best. 

MONDAY: The actual cold front is expected to reach the area around I-4 sometime around 4AM and cross Dead Central within an hour before or after sunrise. Winds becoming WNW as much drier air filters down the state, but still not too cool outside until the sun starts to set and the cold air advection becomes more realized Monday evening.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY MORNING: Quite cool to cold, especially along and west of I-95 in the morning hours through mid-morning. Frost might enter the forecast from Orlando and North by Thursday and Friday mornings as winds calm down sufficiently. Lows right at the coast in the mid-upper 40Fs and highs in the low-mid 60Fs. The coolest overall day appears will be Wednesday with Thursday not far behind in the morning hours at least.

NEXT WEEKEND (EASTER): Gradual warming trend most notable begins Saturday, and even warmer on Easter Sunday with sunny skies and light winds after Wednesday from the ENE to East, becoming Southeast by Easter. It also looks so far that it could be a while before rain enters the forecast again with several more warm days ahead from Easter into the first 5 days of April.

Strong to Severe Storms Possible Saturday and Sunday

FRIDAY NOON: It appears a warm front is starting to form across Central Florida as of early afternoon. This boundary will lift north later today through tonight to the Florida/Georgia Border. Chances of isolated showers and maybe some thunder across the Southern 1/3 of Florida although cloud cover will likely result in only showers for the most part

TODAY: Several changes taking place today through Sunday Night. A warm front is forming across Central Florida which will lift north later today and tonight. The better moisture mostly coming in from the west and south will most affect the Southern 1/3 of the state. Meanwhile a low pressure area is forming toward East Texas. That system will drag a cold front across Central Florida Late Sunday.

In the meantime, easterly winds will become more Southeast with time and south to SW by Saturday. Possible fog over night in some areas or light rain as the warm front lifts north.

SATURDAY: A weak low will form along the warm front which will be into South Georgia by noon time. That low could start to move toward the east and result with daytime heating in a pseudo pre-frontal trough which would act as a mechanism of convergence down at least the northern 1./3 of the state. Greater instability anticipated across North Central, while wind fields could set up for the potential of severe weather north of I-4 and much more possible along the I-10 especially at and west of Tallahassee, although the area from Gainesville toward JAX might need to bear this closely in mind.

SATURDAY AFTER 2PM: Daytime heating and some of the best instability we've seen across Florida for many months now combined with better moisture fields and shearing winds both directionally and with speed, although not truly significant but combined with very cold air aloft could result in some isolated stronger storms across a part of Central Florida, but more likely near and north of I-4. This is noted near and north of the orange line in the image below. 

SUNDAY has been the better day as it appears for Severe weather , but there is a chance that for Central it will occur on "the day before the day". Wouldn't be the first time so does bear watching in the next two to three model runs and then in short term model runs and analysis as Saturday evolves to see if perhaps Saturday doesn't throw a few surprise curve balls. Cloud cover could shoot down the potential quite easily. The image below shows this area and another for Sunday.

Severe Chances best this weekend north of the red line with a  secondary area on Saturday north of the orange line. On Sunday the better areas to watch are between the purple lines. Further south, this part of Florida will not likely see the best extent of wind fields nor instability as the line of activity will enter this region for the most part well after peak heating (assuming there is not already cloud cover)

PALM SUNDAY: Another shot of rain storms , thunder some strong over North Central and parts of Dead Central if not South Central as well though not shown in the image above. Noting that the NAM model is quite sparse on precipitation for the most part the entire weekend, so this could all equate to a Bust-cast Fail mode Flop-ation Surmise-orama based on the GFS, but based on discussions from official outlets who have better access to a detailed ECMWF (European) model, a play on the push-for-rain seems to be the best option at this point. Winds SW/breezy and warm especially south of I-4 with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs assuming cloud coverage is not too extensive.

MONDAY-THURSDAY: Much cooler with near cold mornings where frost might end up being possible from Lake County and north, but the immediate east coast as usual from the Cape and South along A1A to the Keys will escape the worst of the worst of it. Some very cool afternoons will return as well with highs in the 60Fs on Monday and Tuesday (if not Wednesday as well). 

EASTER OUTLOOK: So far, it looks to be quite warm on Easter with another system perfectly timed to be on the approach. SW winds and warm.

Dry and Cooler on Thursday, Then More Dry Upon Dry

TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY shows a secondary front to cross Florida into tonight. Also shown, high pressure to build into the norhtern
 Gulf then cross Florida Friday into Saturday evening

TODAY/TONIGHT: Satellite imagery early afternoon clearly shows the cold front of yesterday well south of Florida. High atmospheric level cirrus clouds streaming mainly across the Southern 1/3 of the state with some very very thin cirrus to approach Central later today which could go un-noticed entirely. Otherwise, a secondary boundary is to cross the state later today (shown above) from the north with no effect other than to re-enforce the dry and cooler air mass tonight through Thursday. Cooler inland tonight with lows through the 40Fs but possibly remaining in the lower 50Fs from Canaveral and South mainly along the A1A strip. NNW wind breezes today but decreasing toward and after sunset.

THURSDAY: Overall the coolest day with lows noted as above and highs mainly in the lower 60Fs with inland mid-60Fs possible with a more northerly wind.

FRIDAY: Statewide the coolest morning, but also a notable warm up in the afternoon with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs and sunny with a WNW wind. The High Pressure area seen above will have dropped into the Northern Gulf and will be crossing Florida Friday Night into Satruday and will be will off shore of Florida to the east south east on Sunday. 

WEEKEND: Highs in the mid 70Fs to some lower 80Fs. Winds westerly, but with such a light vectorial component (strength- vectors are measured by both direction and magnitude) it is possible an afternoon sea breeze will develop causing temperatures especially east of US1 and then more-so toward A1A to remain in the lower 70Fs, before reaching the 'maybe mid 70Fs' before the sea breeze sets in (if it does). If it does not, highs could reach the upper 70Fs statewide, to lower 80Fs west of US1.

NEXT WEEK: Next front still appears will go through DRY late Tuesday after which more high pressure originating from a more northerly component rather than from the west drops south resulting in a more easterly, onshore flow...eventually becoming more SE - S by the yet next weekend of Palm Sunday. Thus, continued dry and consistently warmer across the boards beginning late next week for a good 5 days to follow.

The next potentially more significant change in this dry pattern is not showing its face even in the distant crystal ball future until sometime around the 23rd to the 28th of March time frame. Up until that time, cool mornings with below normal temperatures will return to normal then above normal by this weekend then return back to normal again as a result of the easterly flow coming off cool ocean shelf waters after the front of next week. All this is a far cry from the Storm of the Century which had crossed Florida as of last night 20 years ago to the date. 

 

Increasing Clouds Today, Showery Tuesday, Cooler

Filtered sunlight today with a chance of increasing high clouds toward late afternoon into the evening. As a result. warmer this evening the previous evenings especially near the coast.

TODAY: Increasing high clouds possible especially from Central Florida and North after 3:30PM with filtered sunlight. Warmest afternoon high temperatures west of I-95 approaching the 80F mark. Coolest from Volusia County and north with coastal highs in the mid to upper 70Fs in generalm especially from Vero and south. Overnight lows in the low to mid 60Fs, with some 50Fs well inland.

TUESDAY: Cold front will enter North Central by early afternoon with a weak prefrontal trough over and near Central Florida by mid-late morning. Cloudy with light showers and maybe some rumbles of thunder along the Gulf Coast near Cedar Key pressing toward Tampa by late morning to early afternoon. Rain showers or denser overcast most of Central most of the day with a SSW-SW wind. Some pockets of heavier rain are possible but they should be brief if at all due to fairly fast motion of rain producing clouds.

WEDNESDAY: Front will have cleared Florida as high pressure builds east ward across the northern Gulf. This puts Florida in northerly flow. There is a chance of High Clouds also on Wednesday Central and South, with highs in the upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs, but considerably drier in the lower levels. Temperatures make a more notable fall Wednesday night.

THURSDAY: Much cooler with inland lows through the 40Fs and maybe some upper 30F far northern Lake County and north with upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs along the east coast from the Cape and South. Cooler Thursday afternoon with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs with clearing skies and North winds through Friday when it will be a bit warmer in the afternoon but remain cool to cold overnight, mainly inland and toward the West Coast.

SATURDAY: The high pressure will be sprawled out and flattened across Florida and slowly drop south in response to another front passing north of Florida. This front will eventually cross Florida early next week as a back door front relatively unnoticed. Highs in the mid 70Fs, sunny, and very light wind, working into Sunday and Monday. Mornings remain very cool but with a west wind as the high pressure sinks south afternoon highs will be well into the 70Fs even at the beaches.

BEYOND: High pressure will build in again from the NNW behind the aforementioned 'backdoor front' and possibly turn the wind onshore (from the NNE-NE going into the middle of next week; therefore a bit cooler especially near the coast. Remaining dry for quite some time to come, at least another week to 10 days with temperatures around normal averaged across that time frame.

CAPE CANAVERAL SUNRISE LAST WEEK. All of 'that' above was well underwater after the latest recent exceptional High Tides the past two to three days.

Remaining Just A Bit Cool through Friday with Decreasing Wind

Radar from around 7AM this morning just after a shower had moved over the Canaveral area and then offshore shows the cold front position at that time, and where the coldest air behind the boundary was located (purple line and north)

TODAY: Front went through close to sunrise as anticipated and now is located near the Broward/Dade County line, as noted by an 80F degree reading at Kendall. Brisk WNW-NW wind behind the boundary could increase a bit more through mid-late afternoon as heating combines with the attempted cold air intrusion results in mixing with heating of the day combined with 35kt winds at 2000 ft. Would expect these winds to subside after dark, but it is hard to say if the atmosphere will completely 'de-couple' during the overnight hours. Either way, lows in the lower 40Fs well inland and much closer to 50F right along the A1A strip give or take 2 or 3 degrees.

THURSDAY: Continued clear and dry with similar temperatures to today but with wind less than 1/2 that of today (from the north-NNW)) it will at least feel much warmer and quite pleasant. It will be very nice in wind protected areas out of the shade. Gradually more warm going into Friday with a cool over night, but warming along the IMMEDIATE beach from the Cape south possibly before sunrise Friday.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY-SUNDAY: No change to previous line of thinking. Wind gradually works more easterly to southeasterly overnight Sunday into Monday with some patches of stratocumulus clouds. Given the timing so far, the east coast from near the Cape and South could see little drop in temperatures beyond around 9pm each of these evenings with maybe even a few degrees of increase in temperature, especially after 3AM early Sunday morning and Monday morning.

SATURDAY NIGHT NOTE: Day light Savings Time Begins . Set clocks AHEAD One Hour before bed-time. It is also a good time to check for new batteries for your weather radio as we enter a more potentially active Severe Weather Season (and a jump start at Tropical Storm Season), as well as any fire-alarm batteries that might need to be replaced.

SUNDAY MORNING/NIGHT: Sunset will be closer to 7:30pm, but then again, sunrise will be closer to 7:40AM so it will much darker for some of the  kids  heading off to school Monday morning.  

If you are looking for an excuse to whoops: 'be late for church and miss it altogether', now is your chance to use the "I forgot to change my clock or the alarm setting excuse", because it'll only fly every couple of years (if need be).  

BEYOND: No much chance of rain is in sight for quite some time which is unfortunate from a tinder dry fire season perspective. Temperatures slowly moderating with a possible warm day on Tuesday for the South 1/2 of the state, but that is again short lived, being followed by another cool but not drastically 'cold' spell of a front. 

Lows in the 50Fs and 60Fs and highs in the near 70F (east coast beaches) to mid-upper 70Fs well inland 9 (except a bit cooler next Wednesday). Bearing in mind, ocean temperatures per latest Trident Pier and Port Canaveral Entrance buoys are running around 66F for Brevard County (colder north); thus, afternoon sea breeze along and east of A1A  will result in daytime high temperatures  running much like that of yesterday (near 70-72F), but much warmer well away from the beach. This is not much captured by TV News Stations, so heads up for it being surprisingly cool if planning on frolicking in the surf, or panning for gold. 

Stellar Day In Store, Then Cool through Friday

Current Cold Front Position (Blue) and high pressure area moving east of the state today . The cold front will be located ("yellow") in general around sunrise Wednesday morning 

TODAY: Warmer today with a SW wind ahead of the next cold front. Already?! Highs in the low-mid 70Fs and mainly clear skies.

TONIGHT/WEDNESDAY: Front to progress east and south into Central Florida well after midnight and be located across Central toward sunrise, progressing southward to Miami by noon. Some clouds and possibly some sprinkles mainly before sunrise, followed by falling temperatures and an increasing WNW wind behind the front. Temperatures might rise into the lowers 60Fs south of I-4 as winds increase in the 15-22mph range early - mid afternoon after the early morning fall in temperatures. Once again, very dry conditions will prevail.

THURSDAY: Another very cool start to the day similar to this morning if not cooler, but with a WNW-NW wind it will feel much cooler to cold. Highs again in the lower to mid 60Fs (warmer far South Florida and cooler north).

FRIDAY: Slow warming trend as winds slowly shift N-NNE as wind slowly decreases.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Very pleasant with warmest sunrise temperatures along and east of A1A from Canaveral and South through the Keys. Warmest afternoons inland though as the afternoon sea-breeze will cause the beaches to feel rather cool, especially after these recent cold spells likely having cooled the ocean temperatures (and thus the sea breeze) all the more. Inland temperatures in the lower 70Fs but the beaches immediate might have a tough go at even 70F north of Ft. Pierce.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: It will take a full week for the next front to approach, and expect Monday and Tuesday will both be much warmer with highs in the mid-upper 70Fs with a few lower 80Fs South. From here on out the guidance gets indecisive about the frontal passage sometimes around late next Tuesday. All in all, it has shown that even behind that front temperatures will not be all that bad, with a rather quick warm up shortly thereafter. If so, that means it could be quite some time we see cold weather again after this Thursday (no including the morning lows inland and west side of the state going into the weekend.)

Shortly After Sunrise This Morning

Other than Tuesday, Cool but not "As" Cold

Forecast plot for 6PM Tonight  shows a High Pressure Smiley Center near Central Florida. To the north is, in very general terms, what we can expect to hear about: "Snows through Wednesday toward the Washington DC area, especially in West Virginia and Northern Kentucky and the Northern Plains" 

TODAY: This post is mainly a 'for continuity sake' post, as the previous post was last Monday. As noted previously, the highs on Sunday might not even crack 60F, and such as it was for the most part. Today's post is to continue  the cool streak as high pressure which was sliding along the northern Gulf Coast the past two days or so will sink into Central and be centered almost right over Cape Canaveral to Melbourne by late evening and remain such until nearly sunrise. Other than light to near calm winds near dark, clear skies,  dry air, and very cool temperatures with a high in the lower 60Fs (South) right near 60F (beaches Central and North), and low 60Fs and maybe a mid 60F briefly interior most of the state, not much else to say.

TONIGHT/TUESDAY: Frontal boundary now showing up (above) across Texas will move quickly east along the jet stream flow and enter Central Direct around 7AM Wednesday morning. Before then, another cool evening in store with some mid-upper 30Fs possibly interior area and potentially some frost with a quick warm up by mid-morning toward noon time with highs in the low-mid 70Fs (especially the south 1/2 of the state) with a SW wind of 12-18mph in the afternoon...but continued dry and mainly sunny. Tuesday will be the most 'choice' day for a while now, until maybe Sunday.

WEDNESDAY: Front goes through Central and proceeds further south at or just before sunrise with a band of clouds and perhaps a few rain drops on the wind shield while temperatures are in the mid-50Fs to lower 60Fs, but really expect mostly cloud cover as the atmosphere is so dry now that any rain to fall might evaporate before reaching the ground. Most if any rain will occur prior to sunrise, with quick clearing over Central by noon time..with NNW winds following and cool, with a high not to far off from today, perhaps a degree or two warmer.

THURSDAY: Another cool morning, likely much like tomorrow morning will be, and cool in the afternoon with highs in the 60Fs.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: High pressure moves off the US East Coast north of Florida and a gradual east flow develops with air mass modification ensuing. Expect this to become first evident in the early wee hours from the Cape and South when over night lows drop little relative to those inland and toward the west coast, with as much as a 15F degree difference, for example, for Cocoa Beach verses West side of Orlando. The warmest 'mourning' and overnight will be right along A1A and east of A1A Friday through Sunday mornings, with lows elsewhere going into the 40Fs but much closer to 60F right on the beach. The warmest day foreseen after Tuesday is Sunday and beyond . Given how far off that is, it should be no surprise that the GFS cannot figure out if around the 17-19th we will see another cool spell.