Chance of Iso-Strong/Severe Thunder Southeast Quadrant

Severe Warned Storm -Cape Canaveral, Hail in Some Locations Non-Severe,
near Severe Wind Gusts Reported

Above Image superimposed (left) with a severe warned thunderstorm on Saturday. 
AT 447 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A  SEVERE STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR ROCKLEDGE AND MOVING NE AT 15 MPH.  

  
* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO...  MERRITT ISLAND..

.COCOA BEACH...CAPE CANAVERAL...JETTY PARK AND PORT   CANAVERAL 

TODAY: Another chance of isolated thunder (iso-thunder) over the SE portions of the state, mainly from near Titusville or Cape Canaveral south to near MIA or FLL (Fort Lauderdale) mostly nearer the east 1/2 of the state.

There are   issues today with down draft CAPE  once again which could limit to some degree large storms, but those same factors (if they get going) could make them popcorn severe. So far, most to all locations near and north of I-4 appear to be completely out of the picture today. The irony is that it is that location where the better wind fields are that would support severe storms, but those to work their way toward the Magical Central Dividing Line running from the Port of Canaveral toward North Tampa Bay. Timing is another issue as well, as outflows, if activity from further south manifest, could advect favorable 'storm air' toward the North Brevard Beaches with an intersect over "Badges Only" no-man's land Space Center. I sent a badge request in last year to gain access to those secure areas but I guess they didn't buy it.

Surface based instability is higher than latest GFS and NAM are showing per the Mesoscale Analysis Page, but lifted index is lacking toward The Beach Line but the trend has been to build that parameter north to MLB or Canaveral. Overall, it's another day of cat and mouse in wonder if , and,, or when the needed parameters will sync together after and during peak heating (number one), and number two, if the east coast sea breeze can get going north of Vero Beach. That is the key ingredient to get the pulse strong storms to activate, at least while they are over land.

Without the sea breeze north of Vero, the stronger storms if any appear will be limited toward Ft. Pierce around the Lake and Southward. In general though, believe the sea breeze will get going around 2pm if not sooner, so should see some showers begin to generate. The models were having problems even up to the latest runs as what appeared to be convective feedback from yesterday's and last nights departing anomaly (which activated storms along the east coast from the Cape and South)  which could have thrown guidance out of whack. In general, the better chances of strong appear to be from near Sebastian Inlet and south at least as of this hour.

Hazards today near the storms would be lightning and wind gusts toward severe limits of 58 mph  with hail the better chance toward Lake Okeechobee and South Florida in general from near Vero Beach south to West Palm and inland a way. Note: The GFS favors most of Brevard, but as of this hour that potential is yet to be seen.  

MONDAY and BEYOND: Chance of thunder again mainly far South Central and South Florida nearer the east coast once again. Outside of Moan-day, a bit cooler and dry (normal for this time of May) at least into next weekend as it appears now. There is a very definite trend the continental U.S. is falling into so far the past 2-3 weeks, all part of the reason why this has been one of the lowest count tornado years in decades.

Interesting side bar is that the GFS is showing a tropical storm or weak hurricane to approach Florida near Memorial Day weekend but take heed, the GFS showed almost the  exact same thing at this time of year, last year.

Manatee Park Madness - Cape Canaveral, Florida