A Perchance Random Strong to Severe Storm Possible Again Today

"HOVERING "

"LOCALIZED FLAIR"

YESTERDAY: Not much different today than yesterday regarding forecast accuracy which is a bit of a 'make no promises, incur no loses' type forecast on this end. Today does look quite a bit different in general than yesterday, at least as of 10AM, but from that standpoint everything is happening as expected: "Predictably unpredictable". 

Images above are right on to near about where the seabreeze was able to reach yesterday which was the sand dunes. However, a side shower / up river wind component was able to form at ground level, hence a water spout along the Indian River was reported toward South Brevard as some storm action from the west moved over the river. It appears per latest guidance (short term models) that an up the coast type wind might once again develop today after 2pm or so, but will remain close to the beaches. The above shown (image) formation appeared to be resultant from the side shore wind meeting outflow from a storm to the north that was working southward just offshore. There was some weak rotation associated  with it, but in  no way was it close to 'significant'.

TODAY: SW flow aloft continues with 'pockety' moisture in various levels along with a mesoscale boundary or two which could again act as catalysts. It appears one such boundary might be running near to just north of I-4 as a result of outflow from early morning activity further north. Today does not look quite as unstable though as yesterday did at this time nor are any mid-level boundaries discernible (as of yet).

Regardless, will play for the worst as noted below for various locations as a shot from the hip.

SOUTH FLORIDA is again questionable. As of now this area is showing up on Mesoanalysis as very stable with the most unstable area being Central Florida. North Florida is being stabilized by early day activity already.

SIDE NOTE: Jet stream level winds today are  from the NE to Southwest (which is a bit odd), so anvil tops on stronger storms will blow AWAY from the east coast and toward SW Florida with time. That might be enough to shut activity down that way to a grinding halt due to the shadow of the anvils stabilizing the air below but that is well down the road into later today. Otherwise, will watch some pockets along the intracoastal or even immediate beaches again today mainly from the north side of the cape toward Vero Beach or Ft Pierce.

If activity begins to form too soon along the west side of the state and marches east before any side shore component can form (or if it forms), most if not all of the strong storm chances will fall almost away entirely except possibly toward I4 or maybe in SE Florida.

BEYOND: Even less chance of a side shore wind in the next day or so, but Sunday and Monday both appear to have a better chance of being 'wet', especially across all of Central and South Florida in various locations. By Tuesday the steering and surface flow is nearly from due South or SSW which sets up a different set of circumstances entirely, along with better upper level divergence as the upper level trough makes it's deepest southward plunge before retrograding away toward the NW and filling in, losing all identity by mid week next week.  

The most obvious all out reduced day for rain chances is Thursday and beyond for the most part (for quite some time really) but not entirely so..afterall, it is summer in Florida.

                  "LONE SOUL"