Chance of a Few Isolated Strong Storms, Very Warm Today

"Twin Thunderstorm Towers in Brevard County" -  West of Cape Canaveral  

Pileus atop a Towering Cumulonimbus Cloud
 (Thunderstorm) near Melbourne, Florida

LABOR DAY OF REST FROM LABOR TODAY: Not much change from previous post. Today looks like one of the better days for some coastal showers and/or thunder mainly very close to the coast north half of state and more numerous the further south one goes. Earlier start South Florida with a shower near the beaches almost anywhere from the Cape South after 2pm through dark. West to east steering is a bit deeper today per KSC sounding which matches model guidance. Suspect the east coast sea breeze will remain pegged to the coast east of I-95 if not US 1. Moisture convergence along and ahead of the sea breeze could generate some high based rain showers, but a spurious lightning strike is always possible, most likely after the 4-5pm time frame but earlier further south.

Some stronger activity could occur toward Dade and Broward Counties or over the Glades area, with another 'hot spot' potential along the Lake Okeechobee gradient wind 'Shadow' near Ft pierce or north end of Palm Beach County. Suspect that outflow from said activity will work north with time with any possible stronger storms to manifest toward Brevard after 7pm as conditions overall become more favorable as the Lifted condensation levels lower. This though, will depend on any previous cloud cover prior to that time that might put a damper on the dynamic thermal lifting mechanisms throughout multiple levels, at least since the NAM is showing pretty high multi-layer LCLs. Even so, some strong wind gusts could be the net effect with randomly spurious  "free air - cloud to ground- out of the blue lightning bolts" or even some wind gusts in late day rain showers. 

Thus note,  **lightning could occur well removed from the rain fields which is a big heads up for beach goers still in place to end their Holiday Weekend.****

Thunderstorm In Progress with Pileus Cap (tippy top center)  
Pronounced 'Pi-lee-us'

 

Notes as Noted. Best potential late day as west coast
 sea breeze Approaches the east coast

TUESDAY: Ridge axis will begin to lift more north from Far South Florida, with other factors remaining nearly the same. Looks like storms might have a hard time near the beaches South Florida but more of a chance Brevard and North  but isolated in fashion.

WEDNESDAY: Ridge axis is nearly over Dead Central. Could be some earlier activity around the Cape which then works inland during the day, with best concentrations north of I-4 and along the interior and Florida West Coast

Pileus Ice-ing Atop a Clumpy Culumonimbus  Cake

BEYOND: Pattern returns to being dictate by easterly flow, the status quo of  last month. Tropical activity is being hinted by most model guidance  but in almost all cases it remains well east of the state, but there is plenty of time for this to change, as we are now referring to at least 8- 10 days or more from now.