Good Rain Chances Overnight Monday into Tuesday, Possible Strong Storms

Clouds for Cold Front "Aloft" Pass Over Central Florida at Sunrise

THIS MORNING/TODAY: Cold front (very shallow) has completed passage as of earlier today over Central .  The front at 2000 feet (as opposed to ground level) crossed Central at sunrise and was easily discernible by a line of low stratocumulus clouds. Passage of this line was noted with a slight increase in NW winds and small temperature drop. The surface front was already well over South Florida at that time.  By shallow front is meant that not far above 2000 ft all indications are much different with SW winds still in place. High pressure which started out near Louisiana this morning will quickly translate east to east north east and exit the Georgia/South Carolina region tonight. Wind will swing from NW-N-NE-East during the day and tonight and by sunrise wind will be light ESE-SE at the beaches but remain very light. Overnight lows in the lower 50s to upper 40Fs well inland but the immediate beach from Cape Canaveral and South might have a slight rise in temperature after 3AM - 5AM time frame and end up at sunrise near 63-66F degrees as a result of the wind shifts overnight. Much warmer on Monday with a high in the mid 70Fs and winds from the south to south southwest.

TOMORROW: Though the air mass is quite dry now, some higher clouds might begin to stream in near sunset tonight (Sunday night) of little impact but more certainly on Monday. Meanwhile, an upper low is over old North Mexico right now but it will be moving east to east northeast in the next 36 hours to the northern  Central Gulf where it dampens out to a open wave , merging with the now persistent Deep Upper Trough associated loosely with the infamous  "Polar Vortex of media hype" which in previous posts has been referred to at times as being reflected by the  "James Bay Low". Energy from that system will merge and over - ride a bit of the tail end of the front that went through early today here, with weak cyclogenesis  low pressure commencing well south of the Mobile area which then will progress east to over or north of the I-4 overnight Monday night. 

There will a very small chance of isolated severe storms but more likely several strong storms mainly about 10 miles south of I-4 and north, with still some strong storms possible in the region noted in the below graphic. For Most of North Central and Central Florida this means any truly active weather would occur from near midnight through around 6AM Tuesday morning. It looks like the entire I-4 corridor has a 100 percent chance of rain unless something drastic changes in the outlook. There are notes in timing difference though, with the GFS model of which this forecast is based being faster than the European, so be advised that particularly for Central Florida the more active weather might be delayed until at least sunrise if not later. Time will tell.

Yellow line on South Florida shows where the 925mb 'cold front' was last seen quickly losing all identity. The orange and red lines show zones of strong to 'maybe' severe weather late Monday into Early Tuesday with a 100 percent chance of rain for some locations north of the orange line across Central Florida within that same time frame.

BEYOND: Frontal passage Tuesday followed by yet another SERIES of dry fronts mostly aloft for the next 4- 6 days. Say  "goodbye" to onshore winds off the Atlantic and quick warm ups. The Wind will swing from NW-N and back to NW for the most part from Tuesday on in to the following week. So far, Thursday morning appears could end up with some surprise Freezing Temperatures Central Florida and North though I'm seeing nothing about that on the wires yet. This event will not be quite as bad as the previous one but still expect on Thursday we might never get out of the lower-mid 50Fs and most days will never reach 70F or if so, only for a brief period into the beginning of the following week (except perhaps one day next weekend).

"2000 Ft Cold Front" went through This morning

EXTENDED CLOUD COVER OUTLOOK: One bright side though to the very cool to slightly below normal to near normal temperature outlook. It looks like the sun will be shining more often than not for a change and winds in general will be fairly light as well. So though it be much cooler now as we enter ( to my recollection ) the normally coldest time of year across East Central and South Florida, nothing highly unusually cold is foreseen as of yet, though it will get quite dry after Tuesday's early rains for an extended period of time. There is also a secondary cold period beyond Thursday/Friday that appears we could again be gambling with near freezing temperatures early next week. Looks like we're in it (winter) for the long haul now. But for how long is completely unknown at this point. 

Convective Rain-shower Over Gulf Stream Waters Saturday Afternoon