Severe "Possibility" Remains For Thursday

IF THE ABOVE GRAPHIC LOOKS FAMILIAR IT SHOULD,
 IT'S THE SAME ONE POSTED TWO DAYS AGO, BUT SEE COMMENTS -
CHANGES TO IT ARE NOT WORTH MAKING AN ENTIRE NEW GRAPHIC FOR,,,,

TODAY: Not much new to say really. The yet to truly form 'warm front' remains stationary over Central somewhere across Central Brevard County to South Brevard to the West coast, but it is barely discernible but by stability indexes. It might lift a bit further north to the 528 or so by later today but that's about it. Chance of showers from near Port Canaveral and South with the best chance it appears would be from near Vero Beach toward Ft Pierce and then some further south. Issue with South Florida is that it looks very dry down there, and not sure moisture will return enough by later in the day to manifest much more that some small showers. If there is to be thunder at all today, it should be near Ft Pierce if even, but as noted yesterday was expecting only showers today. Also, SPC took out the chance of thunder for daylight hours North Florida

THURSDAY: The 'Big Day' in Question remains elusive , as model disparagings run rampant, though to somewhat a lesser degree. 

All this talk might be not worth neither here nor there in the end, but as noted yesterday the forecast wind shear profiles and strength of the winds aloft and colder temperatures aloft are nothing to sneeze at. Suspect some big storms over the loop current will get going sending plenty of 'debris clouds' over the state which might shut out too much low level instability. Primary focal point from the perspective of sitting in this location is from near Tampa Bay to just south of there to somewhere about 10 miles either side of a line running to Port Canaveral where this dormant boundary over that area continues to reside

"On this Day, March 5th, Last Year"  - Happy Ash Wednesday

. Seen it more than once where a system would come in, all the Instability to the south, all the wind energy to the north..and a storm rides right along both sources for a quick spurt of severe or near it. 

A few different scenarios could end up unfolding such as small isolated cells popping up by mid-late morning well ahead of the great forcing scheduled to move in from 10AM through 3PM..but a various locations at different times, or there could be a bit of a small squall line feature to move from west  to east, or just several rounds of disorganized by isolated to strong storms over the course of the day. Should be interesting to watch from a weather perspective one way or the other just to see what does or does not happen.

Below is the SPC outlook as of late this morning, and it can be compared to the image above , which is why a newer one was not created for purposes of a simple blog post.

Not too much difference in the latest SPC OUtlook, with their higher risk area (just noted as of this morning)t a bit further south than the  blog noted post 2 days ago which looks reasonable enough.  Still watching for the chance of a storm to 'ride the gradients' though on the north side of the yellow area shown..which is where some latent 'helicity' could be lurking just waiting for a storm to form so it can reveal itself

 
BEYOND: Cooler somewhat on Friday and/or Saturday, things are changing fast with each model run in the extended and Tuesday now appears will NOT be a severe weather day afterall, but will keep watching...the GFS has been known to abruptly shift in reverse after a few days to an older and previous perspective.  As well as now that we mention that, it's now bringing colder air in during the latter portions of mid March. Just goes to show, if you can't trust a weather model one day out, why would one bother looking 7-10 days out? (there are good reasons too though for planning purposes). 

Last Year , This Day in the Morning