"Severe Weather Possible Thursday If....."

Monday Morning Sunrise - Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Warm from noon through sunset. SSW winds with no sea breeze seems to be a possible outcome today, which means highs in the lower-mid 80Fs across most of Central and South Florida including the coast. The warmest location today if the SSW-SW wind persists should be closest to the east coast on equal footing with inland locations if not even warmer. This all ahead of a cold front that is putting  the seeming "  Endless Winter" into full gear today and tomorrow across nearly every area east of the Rockies except for Florida by the time tomorrow is through with. The front is expected to make it to near "Dead Central" or a bit south of there at the surface, but just above around 2000 ft it will remain back toward I-4 as it appears now.

Tomorrow morning forecast lows not much different than this morning over Peninsular Florida though there could be an increase in cloud coverage (watching the SW- west Central Gulf Tuesday and Wednesday)

 TUESDAY: Continued warm all of South and South Central Florida with the chance of more cloud coverage holding temperatures down especially near and north of I-4 and to a lesser degree north Central. Though there could be a shower or two south of I/4 it appears to be very very low.

WEDNESDAY:  Will shoot with partly cloudy skies as warm front (the old frontal boundary lifts further north) reasserts a 'warm sector' across  Central and South making for another warmer afternoon as low pressure in some shape or form approaches and develops to an either lesser or more degree near the Loop Current and/or south of the Louisiana coast in the northern Gulf. The big question in regard to Thursday's weather appears will be just exactly where any low will be located and how strong it will be. 

This set up has been foreseen off and on now for over a week as mentioned in an old post which   referred to the earlier parts of March appearing to have a severe weather threat potential.

THURSDAY: This is the day the 'blogger' has been watching per the GFS signals now for over 3 days and 14 consecutive model runs with restraint of pen.  The Storm Prediction Center and the NWS Offices are all eye-balling Thursday now (as it used to be a maybe for Friday too, but that seems to have gone by the wayside)..for a chance of strong to severe storms.

 No doubt it would be irresponsible to not at least mention the chance when considering the latest GFS shows the core of a 120 KT JET streak from the 500mb through the 200 mb levels cranking across North Florida placing Central in the left exit region (for maximized divergence aloft) coupled with vorticity maxes in the mid-upper levels amidst very cold air in those layers as well going from Thursday morning into mid afternoon. Consider it done. But as usual, there is all those 'ifs' ...

The down side for severe is lack of low level instability and that there is also a possibility that the most favorable winds will either race out too far ahead of the best low level convergence closer to the approaching front or even lag behind the better low level features/variables ( an on-going  theme for this winter season so far). There are other factors involved which get more complex for reader's purposes; suffice it to say though that very cold air aloft and the strongest winds aloft we've seen in quite some time  will be in place (or about to be in place) while Central and South Florida are in the warm sector all day Thursday which if other factors align could spell a 'recipe for disaster' (very tongue in cheek speaking). But will they forget the sugar?

Therefore, would not be surprised to hear some news stations beginning to mention this day (if they have not already).

BEYOND: Frontal boundary should clear by sunset or shortly thereafter, or at least the chance of the bad weather will, followed by slightly cooler but not cold weather for Friday through the weekend. So far, next weekend appears to be shaping up to be very nice;  a bit cool but far from cold.