Increasing Rain/Thunder Chances Through Weekend (Into Next Week?)

Sunrise at The Cocoa Beach Pier ,  17 June 2013

TODAY: Coastal showers with thunder this afternoon to mainly translate west later today, most prevalent South half of state (South Central / South especially). Warm over nights and muggy with light winds except in the vicinity of showers/storms (some could be strong interior and west side) and with onset of the east coast sea breeze.

THURSDAY: A mid - upper level inverted trough across South Florida will move very little in the next 24 hours but will drift west and north a bit across South Central, entering Central Florida late Thursday. Another chance of showers almost any time but mostly near the coast before sunrise and through sunrise working inland during the day. By late Thursday the axis of the trough will come very close to Central Florida and attempt to close off into a weak mid level circulation. Per the GFS (at least) the center of the circulation could be close to East Central by Daybreak Friday.

FRIDAY: If the GFS verifies, the center (s) of circulation from near 850mb through 500mb will almost be over Brevard County all day Friday, due to the very slow motion of the trough (low). With such weak winds aloft along the focal point, plenty of moisture, and instability notwithstanding there would be a lot of cloud coverage, looks like a good scenario for waterspouts  (especially on this day of the next three days) especially as initial activities of the day are set in motion. 

The low pressures though very weak are then to open and lift north by the weekend, especially by Sunday by north of Central Florida if not the entire state.

BIG RAINFALL TOTALS POSSIBLE: That is, if the GFS verifies, it is indicating over 3" (inches) over parts of East Central by the time Sunday is over with. Time will tell, but Thursday into Friday especially could be a rainy ordeal if it does verify, in some particular areas. Or, those rainfall totals might only manifest as cloud cover.

Atmospheric Ocean Waves Mimic Each Other

SUNDAY - WEDNESDAY: As the trough lifts north the Atlantic Ridge axis which had been near I-10 will re-establish itself across the Florida Straits placing most of the state in SW-W flow aloft (storm steering). Temperatures aloft are shown to have warmed by this time, so strong storms might not be so much in the offing as much as numerous thunderstorms getting a fairly early start each day (before 3pm). 

Again, if the GFS verifies, plenty of chances for many of areas to have thunderstorms and rainfall going well into next week. As usual, each day will vary and have it's own set of particulars to deal with, taking it as it comes. 

Ocean Thunderstorm off Cape Canaveral