"Arthur Ashes" To Generate Showers/Thunder Today - Very Warm Most Areas

TODAY: Tropical Storm (soon to be hurricane more than likely) Arthur well on its way out, threatening the easternmost portions of North Carolina primarily, though strongest winds appear will remain offshore for the most part on the eastern flanks. Otherwise, over Florida the storm is leaving a string of surface/low level boundaries and vorticity which trails the whole way across the state to as far west as North Mexico.

Do not expect a sea breeze most anywhere except perhaps South Florida. West winds could bring an extra kick to high temperatures today even to the beaches, but cloud cover onset might come a bit early (and be tough in clearing in some areas), and thus this might offset what could be even warmer temperatures. The GFS primarily is calling for cooling upper level temperatures going into mid-afternoon though the RAP (short term model) and NAM (North American Model) show otherwise. This is important for storm strength (colder aloft is more favorable for stronger storms, namely in the wind department in this particular situation today). Suspect we could see some stronger winds ahead of and along the leading edge of some activity today with frequent lightning, but today will not be a 'normal' Florida summer thunderstorm day given lack of sea breezes and the proximity of Arthur and it's remnant 'ashes'.

 

FOURTH OF JULY FRIDAY: Continues to look like there is more of a chance for stronger storms over the East Half of the state late Friday afternoon with a near side shore seabreeze component working the east side. Perhaps some stronger storms in the climatologically favored  Sanford - Daytona - Port St John triangle region, but that is only a guess this early in time. We will need to see if more boundaries remain from Arthur tomorrow (and suspect some will). There is a chance that some areas might be fretting about fireworks displays somewhere in the state with some activity lingering past dark. Additionally, if the GFS forecast holds any 'precipitable water' in truth, earlier afternoon onset of activity inland progressing eastward might put a damper of afternoon outdoor activities in some locations.

Directly Related to Arthur on Wednesday Morning, Looking north toward Port Canaveral at Sunrise

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: One or both days, very light morning winds (to calm) and clearer skies could result in showers forming close to the coast or existing just offshore the coasts. Saturday morning looked primarily favorable for near shore waterspout formation per the GFS forecast sounding with less than 5 kts of wind from the surface up through nearly 10,000 feet almost anywhere. Time will tell. Sunday pretty much the same deal. Storms should be focusing primarily over the weekend days though come mid-late afternoon away from the beaches and a bit toward the west half of the state, particularly around the other climatologically favored area, Tampa Bay.

INTO NEXT WEEK: Thunderstorms continue each day in the mid-late afternoon to early evening mainly away from the coasts. The favored area now appears to be along the I-4 and Florida Turnpike zones with  low level and mid level ridge axis' over Central Florida and extreme northern parts of South Central. Only minor variations to this pattern are in store at this point in time (at least per the GFS) through mid week next week.