Subtle Pattern Shift / Different Outcomes Today & Wendesday

"Morning Thunderstorm at Sea"

TODAY: Subtle changes in the pattern of late could have significantly different results on the resultant peninsular weather today and tomorrow. Large low pressure aloft over the James Bay area (of  'Polar Vortex' fame) is acting as a bit of a semi-permanent feature apparently in the next week or so, more apparent over the Northeastern U.S. but also apparent at times over Florida in regard to how it affects the placement of the Atlantic Ridge axis latitudinally across Florida in the mid-levels of the atmosphere where storm steering direction is dictated.    

Latest guidance indicates increased moisture over South Florida but continued a bit  drier north of a Cedar Key to Ormond Beach line , especially closer to I-10 (the panhandle region) as a fairly deep short-wave trough rotates around the aforementioned low pressure area well to the north, shifting thusly the Atlantic Ridge Axis further south today. 

Likewise and in response,  the short range RAP/RUC model and the GFS as well say that a more certain SW Flow aloft will develop by late morning toward early afternoon and prevail through Wednesday. The latest RAP short-term model indicates also that anvil level winds might come from from the SW later today, but in any case, the tricky part will come concerning how soon west coast activity develops and where the anvil tops from  that said activity ends up at, as these will dictate who gets cloudy too early in the day after sea breezes commence . With only very slow storm motions toward the ENE-NE many immediately along either coast could end up dry or with only light rains but inland areas driven by boundary interactions might be able to overcome any overspreading cloud cover as plenty of instability should be able to amount with a sunny morning toward noon time period.

Radar and satellite imagery prior to sunrise are much quieter than the past few days, and where activity is now in place is at different locations than the past few days.

Cloud lines could set up quite early along the East or West Coast, which 'might' be something to watch for in regard to an early day shower, but that is strictly a small potential. The greater impacts as usual will be from mid-afternoon through early evening. Expect many areas to be considerably cloudy by late day regardless of where it does or does not rain today.

WEDNESDAY: A variation of today looks to be in play, time will tell.

THURSDAY: Another yet again variation of today with another pattern shift (transitional period) beginning to commence to a less active pattern for some areas, especially on the east side of the state.

FRIDAY-SUNDAY: A few atmospheric dry slots and lifting of the Atlantic ridge axis northward will press storm activity westward for a few days as the Low Pressure area toward James Bay relaxes, but that is replaced by reinforcements sometime on Monday as it appears now), which will then change the weather pattern over Florida as well (*see Monday - Wednesday next week).

Storm Top Casts a Shadow on Surrounding CLoud Coverage at Sunrise

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY NEXT WEEK: Back to a variation of the pattern that will be in place today and tomorrow as the the low pressure trough deepens over Eastern Canada and shunts the ridge axis back south again, resulting in a west to east steering flow as opposed to east to the west of Friday through Sunday.