Large East Side Rainfall Totals Possible Through Tuesday, Fall Like on Sunday

TODAY: Light onshore flow this morning will quickly become South to SSW mid-late morning. Steering aloft is already from the SSW and will become more SW as well. Deep moisture in excess of 2 inches through the "atmospheric column" (precipitable water) combined with instability as measured by Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Lifted Indices (LI) (though only moderate) would yield localized high rainfall totals most anywhere but especially along the East Coast from as far north as Jax toward Ft Pierce where the sea breeze will run more parallel to the shore. 

Other higher totals might occur further inland over the Everglades region south of Lake O.  Since rainfall totals of the past week have added up, wouldn't be surprised if a Flash Flood advisory were to be in order for the next few days, especially focused on areas that have already received more rains and have pour drainage. For example, the GFS has varied on exactly where such higher totals could occur, but has almost always shown Brevard County along to east of I-95 as a particular area of interest for two days now. 

TUESDAY: Frontal boundary to work into Central Florida and begin to undergo frontalysis (weakening) and might get hooked up across the Beach Line latitude until after dark . Rains decrease from I-4 and north with a  primary focus more from near Port St John or Canaveral west toward South Tampa Bay and all regions south (favoring interior and east side). This might end up being a day where a select area will see abundantly more rains than most other areas as opposed to vast areal coverage (but toward the east side ).

WEDNESDAY: Guidance has been flaky coming into Wednesday. Latest two GFS runs imply the boundary will enter to South Florida but be extremely 'shallow' in depth with Westerly type winds just above 'the deck' remaining. Sea breeze convergence type activity might be limited toward interior areas running from Canaveral west to Tampa in general but could drift toward the east. Other areas further north do not appear to be completely exempt though.

THURSDAY - might be a variation of Wednesday with decreasing rain chances but for South Florida.

BEYOND: Another front will be approaching on  Friday into Saturday with one of both days once again exhibit higher rain chances, though this time it doesn't appear to be any form of a 'prolonged' event as this front is continuously being shown to pass through making for THE FIRST COOL MORNING of the season on Sunday. Some 50Fs even possible interior I-4 and north. However, it will be rather short -lived for those along the immediate east coast as easterly winds blowing off warm ocean waters will follow in suit by later that day and days to come with highs remaining maybe in the lower 80Fs Sunday but back to mid 80Fs to warmer than that interior of days to follow.

TROPICS: GFS is implying a system might form in the Western Caribbean toward the Yucatan for several runs. "Tis the Season' for such as it is, and might bear watching as the latter front might lay dormant in this region making for impetus tropical storm formation. 

At this time of year, it is not unusual for a storm to form there to move toward at least South Florida or just off to the east of Florida. *recalling Irene

Already Large Rainfall Totals Could Compile Today South of I-4

"Wednesday Early Afternoon - Storm Moves Ashore
Cocoa Beach and Cape Canaveral, FL"

TODAY; Complicated set up today as an inverted trough runs along to near the Florida East coast merging with an old frontal boundary that moved off shore the Mid Atlantic region. A low pressure area had formed the other day over the Deep South and moved NE with the trailing boundary; but,  it now appears another Low at the mid levels is trying to form in the same place as the previous one keeping the current situation in limbo from 'changing out'; however, in the wake of the previous low high pressure nosed in behind with significant atmospheric drying at the critical levels north of I-4 despite that the region is currently cloudy. 

As a result, the best areas for atmospheric crying aka. "rain chances" today are as shown. Thunder could occur most any time, but the prevalent feature potential with precipitate water values above two inches or close to that value is from Titusville and west to south end of Tampa Bay (later today). Overnight, the rain chance will work north so that by Saturday it will at least as far north as I-4. 

Rain Storm moving in on Cape Canaveral

For for today, suspect with some more heating regeneration of showers and storms south of I-4 , perhaps earlier in the day near the coast working inland with time. Maybe regeneration near the coast late today as well, but any time and any where is fair game. Rain fall totals in some areas have already exceeded 5", with one person reporting over 5" in an hour and a half the other day , while yesterday morning near  the Volusia/Flagler line another similar amount was reported as a result of a stationary boundary that looks similar to the one near Cape Canaveral south to Melbourne at this current time.

FRIDAY: Not too much of change but the chance of rain will spread north by day's end toward I-4.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON

WEEKEND: Probably the chances of heavier rain fall will end, at least on the broader scale, though some spots will likely see some good rains. Clouds might be more the issue but model guidance at this point is widely spread on the rain chances (and cloud cover) so not hedging any bets considering the time of year and the way things have been panning out lately it's been a day by day struggle, with the models seemingly behind on a continuous basis on the small scale short term.

This Morning, Cape Canaveral. This storm dropped a good one inch plus in short order over Cocoa Beach

Possible Large Rainfall Totals Through Wednesday, Isolated Strong Storms

PURPLE: Inverted mid-level trough extending from Southern Gulf Region
BLUE: Cold front dropping toward that above mentioned trough
NOT SHOWN: very weak surface boundary near Southern Lake O. 

TODAY: As expected might be the case, we've entered the realm now of do or die so to speak in regard to 'live by the models, die by the models' vs. fly by the seat of your pants mode. 

Greatest instability per models is South Florida once again but again it will all be contingent on where high cloud cover over rules (resulting in less rainfall) vs upper level winds and divergence (North Florida).  Guidance is playing pretty heavy along the west coast near Tampa Bay inland half way across the state in general and NE Florida late today to early evening from a frontal boundary approaching that area. Suspect due to the most cloud cover and rain fall , storm activities will be along to south of the mid level 'purple' trough axis shown above southward to Brevard County toward Sarasota with a stronger emphasis by far toward the west side. 

Reason for that being that though upper level winds are stronger now than they have been all summer, those winds can also spread high clouds toward the east side well before stronger or more heavily moisture laden storms can form there. On the other hand, storms could form there regardless if the timing is right. if you've noticed there has been reference to bulk shear or wind shear for quite some time in the post, namely because in the summer there are no strong upper level winds almost the entire time. Fall is slowly nodding this way but so far doesn't seem to eager to enter the tropical realm too soon (not at least into the first week of October). 

Further South, storms could occur here as well but for a slightly different reason. Slower storm motion here might actually produce larger rainfall totals due to slow storm motion, but no storm today is going to be moving very fast anyway. Training could even set up somewhere but ultimately end up as a blanket of light/moderate rain over a large area lasting well past dark wherever that might happen to be. Though some storms could be strong, the best chance appears to be late toward JAX and south toward Ormond Beach and more toward the coast of West Central Florida otherwise.
 Another area might be toward the South Half of Brevard/Osceola/Indian River County but those are only potentials, not givens.


TUESDAY: So far this morning the models of NAM and GFS origin imply a somewhat wet day with an early start. Now, that might again only be cloud cover as opposed to rainfall, but with several mid and surface boundaries in our midst with accompanying upper and mid level vorticity (wind energy) near by rain could fall beginning well before noon. On the other hand, if it holds off, storms could again become strong.

TUESDAY LATE -WEDNESDAY: No two days ever the same and this will be more so in this transition to another pattern yet none all the less continued wet as the end result. Only WHY it will rain could be for a totally different reason. 

Mid level trough to dwindle but flow switches to off the Bahamas as noted yesterday in the lower levels with more easterly but very light surface winds. This could set up a training affect along the east coast from Indian River County toward Brevard but exactly where and even IF this occurs will be, as usual, unknown until it actually begins (if it does).

The NAM has joined the ranks as of this morning of an older GFS run which really raises some flags regardless of what a newer GFS run is implying. The last one I saw was now back to more rains along the east coast for a day or two then it all folds together to cover the state in various ways into Thursday at least. By that time, we've extend our welcome and can no longer rely on guidance given all the above confusing circumstances.

For all we know, a weak tropical system could   form  during this Particularly Messy Situation  in the eastern gulf (un-named, but pretty much doubt it would be but subtropical of origin anyway).  

Large rainfall totals could arise sum total of all days put together by Later Wednesday due to all of these extenuation circumstances, not that some heavy rainfalls haven't already occurred in isolated instances on days during the summer, only it appears more possible over a larger area during this time frame. Man your rain gauges!

SUMMER ENDS TONIGHT AT 10:29 PM  EDT

THOUGHT FOR THE DAY:

Last Full Day of Summer: Chances of Showers/Storms Through Tuesday

FALL BEGINS WHEN THE SUN PASSES OVER THE EQUATOR DIRECTLY: 
10:29 PM EDT Monday Evening , September 22nd.

TODAY: Not much change in reasoning regarding the next three days from the previous post.  Info from model guidance and satellite imagery shows two apparent boundaries: the later being more defined by the northern most extent of deepest moisture with increasing  moisture over South Central and South Florida. This moisture might be further north than than models are showing but water vapor imagery is showing North Brevard is about as far as it gets for this time so far. This could be a player later today where the drier meets the more moist (North Brevard/SW Volusia area).

 That gradient might play in late today toward early evening for either increased shower or storm activity or a strong storm. Other thunder and showers could occur almost anywhere further south though as well;  however, at this time satellite imagery is suggesting something might be 'amiss' in a few specifics that will make the bigger difference toward Volusia county especially later today where storms could occur near the coast at least for the south half of it and inland a bit.

High cloud wisps here and there are putting a damper on instability (less heating) and we're getting to the time of year when seemingly every minute begins to count in weather the temperature will reach the critical convective threshold for rising air currents especially since in the upper levels the temperatures are not so unusually cold at all and the surface to low level boundaries are rather not sharply defined.  It appears at time a better chance of showers at least would be Central and South Central Florida toward the east side, though they could occur most anywhere.

Some activity might still be around far East Central toward Brevard after dark.

MONDAY: Though  the boundaries have weakened today with sea breezes in place so will it be tomorrow with less cloud coverage in the afternoon and better heating . Best instability appears will run south of line from Daytona or Ormond Beach west toward Brookesville or even Cedar key. Divergence might be best aloft over the east half of the state however south of Daytona to near the Cape and inland with storms there, but other activity is possible as well. Though not a broad total coverage will occur, most any where could see storms and maybe a strong to 'near severe' could occur East Central to eastern North Central.

TUESDAY: The frontal boundary gets toward Central but is crested by High Pressure to the north. Showers could occur near the coast even in the morning from that time on into Wednesday but still this day could be yet another 'strong storm potential ' one with colder air aloft seeming to be more certain as of the morning GFS.

WEDNESDAY: Light easterly winds at the low levels begins as the front is now in full frontolysis (broken down) but with SE winds streaming north of the Bahamas toward East Central and Volusia just above the surface this could create the dynamics for coastal showers; thus , watching for rain near the coast in the morning and into the afternoon at least. At least it is something to consider at this time. 

Model disparity based on run to model run seems to be breaking down at this point in regard to continuity. Some GFS runs are still showing some larger accumulations of rainfall at the coast toward the weekend, followed by the next run that says it's not going to happen. Chances are it will not, but wouldn't put all the eggs in that basket until the 4rd quarter and we're not there yet. By tomorrow, we should know for certain if any kind of 'rain event' will occur.

Showers/Developing Rain Shield/Some Thunder Possible

TODAY:  Shorter post today as most of yesterday's so far appears to be materializing 'as scheduled'. Boundary lifting north mid morning is now near the Volusia /Brevard Border along the east coast and little further northward motion is anticipated. A weak low pressure circulation per radar animations is east off Northern Volusia. That low is expected to pull off only slowly today toward the ENE -NE but a secondary one could develop over the land mass during the day near Brevard County as the mid level low associated with the surface low is much more broadly distributed across North and North Central Florida and into the eastern Atlantic by the surface low.

There are two boundaries and upper energy with each. One is moving toward South Florida but not sure this will be the more active area and therefore did not draw in thunder there despite that greater instability will materialize there. Chances are there will be some thunder down that way, as the HRRR  model highly 'recommends' to presume  that will be the case. 

The RUC and GFS  models disagree and focus the festivities along the vorticity (energy)  across Central with  more rotating into North Florida which will enter North Central later today.

Instability isn't all that much outside of South Florida though but there remains a chance of thunderstorms today , some a bit 'elevated' more than likely though rain is rain. Severe weather so far is not anticipated but heavy rainfall is always a good possibility especially along the east side of the state north of Vero or Ft. Pierce to South or  Central Volusia spreading into interior areas though do note that not one model is showing that will be the case  by the time early evening arrives.

SUNDAY: Boundary will move very little and dwindle out as the low pressure area will move up along the Eastern Central U.S. Coast and be absorbed into the much larger low pressure trough moving across the Great Lakes Region into the Northeast States with time. 

Cloud cover again could be an issue, but suspect that most storms and showers on this day will be along and south of the Boundary or south of I-4 and especially south of a line running from Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay, focused mostly over the east half of the state all the way down to the northern Keys   

MONDAY - TUESDAY: Meanwhile, another front is moving into the Deep South to enter the picture later Monday and Tuesday , so thunder might again occur on one or both days though overall atmospheric moisture should be reduced thus limiting the extent of cloud coverage overall. Suspect if there are to be stronger storms it will be Monday closer to the east coast from Brevard and South to Miami.

BY WEDNESDAY high pressure building across the Eastern US absorbs all remaining traces of said activity and a deep but mild onshore flow regime sets in resulting in warmer overnight lows at the beaches but slightly cooler afternoons over all with 90Fs hard to come by, especially at the beaches.


Longer range GFS was setting up for a potential 'heavy rainfall totals' event along the east coast mid next week toward the weekend, but a bit skeptical on that until greater consistency is given, on account that is too far out in time. We are near the time of the No Name Storm of 2011 though which was the first week of October and signs of that event to show up were quite consistent using the very same model we are currently speaking of  which had shown such to occur next week. Show, that is, until the last model run. Additionally, the ECMWF model is not showing such to be the upcoming situation now either. Maybe things will switch back though so might bear watching.

Cooler with Clouds/ Some Showers/Storms Friday into Weekend

Latest Synoptic Scale Set Up Leaves
Little For Today but MUCH
for Coming Days ahead 

TODAY: Weak frontal boundary lays across South Florida near the south banks of  "The Big Lake Down South" at the surface while higher up the boundary resides a bit further north. As can be seen above, a disturbance aloft is poised toward north Florida initially coming into Friday and then most of the state as follows up settle in. At time, Florida is playing host as a bit of a 'frontal grave yard' with little aloft to set the wheels in motion for storms, abetted by a bit drier air. As a result, today looks like a respite from what could be a bit more of a weathery pattern in regard to cloud cover and potential rain chances. With clearer skies and drier air, warm today but drier, and cooler again tonight by a few degrees.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: As another front approaches the Deep South and with disturbances aloft already in place superimposed underneath divergence aloft cloud cover should increase as well as shower chances during the day Friday, but exactly when the wheels will begin to set this in motion will be determined as it happens.  The surface front will buckle back north as will the mid level features to north Florida with time, which might take up through late or mid afternoon Saturday.

Before that time with cold air aloft aided by some upper level divergence, suspect guidance might be down playing the rain fall potential, and instead is calling for cooler temperatures as a result of cloud cover and/or evaporative cooling produced by rain that never reaches the ground as a result of over running with easterly surface winds and westerly winds aloft. There could be change over to thunder though south of I-4 on Saturday more specifically as the surface boundary lifts back to the north and winds become more south to southwest.

Also, as these disturbances over run the grave yard, the old boundary  could be 'resurrected' into a surface front with  accompanying low pressure to form over or near East Florida with a trailing frontal boundary across North Central. This boundary might have a hard time sliding south as the upper level support will be pulling off to the Northeast too soon to glide it through.

SATURDAY has the potential be quite 'rainy' at least and cloudy, cooler as a result.

SUNDAY: Sunday remains a bit uncertain with the front still to the north, but also some of the moisture aloft will have been squeegeed out with the low pressure that will be forming, but will it be too much for rainfall on this day? suspect not, but cloud cover issues should be resolved by then.

In the case of continued ample moisture but not over-bearingly so, and cooler air aloft with still some support from the upper levels, thunder could occur mid-late afternoon, some strong...but with warmer temperatures on the ground with the improved lighting conditions aided by low level surface instability.

MONDAY: By late Sunday into Sunday night the next front could be across the I-4 or so but begin to dwindle much like the previous boundary did. How far South it will entertain remains in question and by that time we are at a new week. Suspect it will get a bit further south then Central though the trend so far has been a variation of the past few days resulting in a repeat performance of what has just been described above. Suspect we might see some moisture convergence North Central late day with the next boundary, as the moisture previous works south toward Lake Okeechobee and south region. Another front though is still poised to enter the picture mid-week next week. 

Which means, up and down weather with true fallish like regimes combating summer refusing to let go as evidenced by the strength of the Atlantic Ridge stretching toward Florida Central and South and sometimes North. Could be rains off and on into the following week but it's too far out in time to tell, until we know how strong with greater certainty the next trough coming in on the west coast of the U.S. will be and how far south it will dig next week.

.

Thunder, Some With Strong Wind Gusts, Possible Today Certain Areas

Moon over Canaveral 

TODAY: Frontal boundary near the Florida - GA border to wiggle south in the next 24 hours into Central to South Central if not South Florida depending on which model one prefers. The GFS says all the way, the latest NAM just about says it breaks up too much to almost be deemed worthy of notice. The new GFS is not out yet .  

Will side with consistency of the GFS for now from the past 2 days. If the NAM verifies, this entire post goes out the window though in favor for better storm chances Central post Wednesday and Thursday (NAM) which is directly in opposition with the Global Forecast System (GFS) regurgitation.

Otherwise, cloud cover will be a big player today in regard to what happens where. High clouds across much of the North could impede significantly afternoon activities as a result of early day thunder along the NW Coast north of Cedar Key spreading out the high clouds as will be seen in the  image to follow (below). 

Conditions are not favorable at time for storms across West Central as most models are depicting and in agreement with. As a result for Central and North Central, the better storm chances will be at least over the East 1/2 of the state if only the eastern 1/3.  Across the north, mainly north of I-4, it looks like light to moderate rains with embedded thunder unless the clouds clear out.

Further South, Southwest Florida from near Okeechobee County (south parts) toward Venice/Ft. Myers in from the coast could see stronger but more isolated activities as evidenced by the Microburst Downburst Potential (MDPI) Index from the Mesoscale analysis page which supposed is drawing it's information from the Miami and Tampa Soundings and extrapolating those values across that region. Also perhaps inland of th coast toward it for Martin, St Lucie, and maybe Indian River toward Vero Beach could see a good storm nearby.

Again, cloud cover and inland extent of sea breezes combined with outflow boundaries which manifest as a result of early day activity will determine what happens where and is generally unpredictable down to any exact location. 

Steering toward the East to East South East if not Southeast (which means storm coming from the NW to NNW) except along' apparent' storm motions which result from propagation along pre-existent boundaries (mostly true for South Florida in that regard).

BEYOND: Tomorrow per the GFS the front will slide into South Central by early morning at least and progress further toward the Southern Tip by night fall if not sooner. The upper level trough might be to the east of Central and North with weak high pressure to follow and thus descending air motions suppressing convectively rising air currents (convection) would limit to totally prohibit thunderstorm activities; and cloud cover 'might' be an issue as well. Thus sky conditions on  Wednesday, Thursday and Friday are just a bit uncertain. 

On the other hand, the new NAM says 'Not so"...for now, I think that is a new development in the model run so will discard in favor of GFS consistency across the past few days as noted earlier in the post.

TEMPERATURES  - not 'much' change in afternoon highs though they could come to be closer to the mid 80Fs if not some lower 80Fs at peak hearing esp. near the coast, with morning being  the bigger player: in the lower to mid 70Fs statewide which would be mostly noticeable along the east coast beach areas specifically since inland areas have already been experiencing cooler mornings all along away from the warmer ocean waters. 

FUTURE RAIN CHANCES UNCERTAIN : It's hard to tell at this point with all the future uncertainties due to model disparities if on say Thursday or Friday we will see rain/and or thunder in areas south of I-4, cloud cover, or none of the above. But suspect thunder is the least likely of all.

FALL WEATHER TO COME?: GFS hints at a more 'fallish feel' to the air sometime around the 18th - 21st, which is a fairly consistent climatological possibility. However, it will be minor. The bigger aspect to the situation is the more noticeable lack of summer   activity as opposed to it truly feeling and looking like fall. Less summery equates to fall in that case.

Weak Low Traverses South Florida Today - Disrupts Forecastablility

"Thursday Afternoon Over the Atlantic of Brevard County"

TODAY: A weak surface low from the Bahamas is at time traversing South Florida and is clearly evident on visible satellite animations to be targeting and area just north of Port Charlotte on the Southwest Coast in several hours. There is no rain associated with the low itself at this time, but instead most precipitation is associated with an inverted trough rotating around the top side of the low. Another convergent band 'might' manifest later today to move in along Indian River to maybe parts of Brevard County in the mid-late afternoon hours, though most forecast packages from surrounding offices are not very convincing on exactly what might evolve. There is another area off the Southeast Coas that could move in on Broward , Dade, and Palm Beach Counties though in several hours if it holds together. Otherwise, today is quite a bit out of the norm in regard to any normal 'synoptic' scale features (large scale) due to this 'disruption'.

RED CIRCLE highlight the area of lower pressure as noted
by the swirling pattern within.
Yellow area is pointing in the general direction of motion of this feature
Orange shows where Thunder could be most likely, if at all, though
an occasional thunder is always possible as far north as
Southern Volusia not including
perhaps the panhandle region. 

 

CLOSER VIEW of THE AOI - AREA OF INTEREST

"Page Break Image for Blog - That's a Promise"

BEYOND: More chances of showers overnight and mostly pre-dawn to early afternoon hours east side working inland to the west coast late day, though never is a shower entirely impossible most anywhere at any given time. The least likely though is inland over night, and this stands through the weekend into Monday.

TUESDAY: A series of cold fronts (2) will work as far as the Deep South toward the Panhandle by Tuesday if not into Central Florida, but in that, a very weakened state. So far the implication has been anywhere from remaining stationary over Central Florida to clearing the whole way through with stronger onshore Easterly flow to follow, much like it  would be for  early fall event (say around the first day of Fall, Sept 21st) would be. But again, that's ahead of where Tuesday will be at.

 Increasing chances of thunder around the I-4 and inland to the west and perhaps south Florida but East Central direct might remain 'in the dry'. Pleanty of more time to ascertain.

WEDNESDAY: SW Flow aloft as the Atlantic Ridge axis is pressed south by a secondary deepening of the Large Mother  Low Pressure Area around the Great lakes region. With that, storms could be directed toward the east coast for anywhere from 1-4 days depending on what happens with the front. It's too far out in time to know with any certainty. Sea breeze convergence activity alone is going to become harder and  harder to come by now that fall approaches and the day's are getting shorter to the point that even one minute might make or break it.

BEYOND: Guidance has removed any tropical treat (threat) from the Atlantic  (one letter can make a world of difference) but rather the notion is to watch the Southern Gulf toward the far western Caribbean for a moisture surge at least, to a full blown Tropically named Entity to approach the Panhandle region. That has been the trend so far since last blog post and several model runs, but is easily changeable in all regards considering this does not truly begin to manifest per guidance well into next week (late). But if so, some much wetter weather could be in store for the entire state at various times from Tuesday on for the following week, first regard to the potentially decaying cold front, and secondly to what might come out of the Tropical Caribbean.

Weather Weeks 2-3 Could Develop PMS - A " Particularly Messy Situation"

Sunrise Monday

TODAY - MONDAY: Pattern of late continues through week's end with deepening easterly flow. One if not maybe two 'tropical inverted troughs'  (acronym omitted) in the next 7 days to slide from east to west across the state with periodic dry slots so timing of precipitation could be tricky on some of the days. Most likely, with the advent of their passage the east coast could see a better chance of overnight to late morning coastal to inland showers with thunder occurring more to the west side and especially toward SW Florida during the mid afternoon to early evening with either one or both of them (if there are two).

BEYOND: GFS has been showing two areas of Tropical Interest. One being low pressure to form over the Southern Gulf near the Yucatan, the other approaching from the Central into the Western Atlantic. Whether one or both of those will even Manifest is still a question mark given how far out in time they are forecast to emerge into the limelight. Meanwhile...

TUESDAY: The first Cold Front of the Fall Season impinges south affecting much of the country with much cooler to cold temperatures to near Freezing especially around the Great Lakes - but for Florida , Southern Texas, and Southern parts of the SW U.S. (for the most part in general). Not one, but perhaps a second 'slider' to re-enforce the situation.  

By Tuesday thunderstorms could become yet more numerous for the entire state ending the current pattern in place entirely, to be closing in on even the east coast barrier islands or close enough for caution. Some of those if the GFS is correct could become borderline severe if the GFS trend continues with cold air aloft and stronger upper -mid level winds in place...but getting ahead of one's self.  One if not both fronts are currently forecast to meander 'somewhere' across the state, but at this point the guidance shows only a very broad indiscernible boundary with SW winds in the mid levels making for continued thunderstorms area wide unless the front pushes through with greater certainty and drier air, though at this time, not expecting that to be the case. This should be expected given how far out in time this period is,   details lacking greatly.

MEANWHILE: Over the Far Southern Gulf and the Western Atlantic Guidance has been showing for 3 runs two emerging situations as shown below:

TWO CLOSED LOWS PER THE GFS MODEL BY "NEXT" SATURDAY
WHICH IS TOO FAR OUT IN TIME TO BE RELIABLE

  
Thus, this Particularly Messy Situation is in both  (1) model guidance as well as/ and/ or   (2) increasing chances of more rainfall on top of already damped grounds from an already good wet season  in place. Any tropical entity to actually cross the state or near it with a respectable impact if even in regard to rainfall even if indirectly  would only frustrate the situation in underground water table levels. 

In short, could get interesting over Florida in a variety of ways in the last half of September.

Keeping Awake To What The Future Holds

Large Rainfall Totals Again Possible / Dangerous Lightning Main Threat

STORM NEAR CANAVERAL CRUISE TERMINALS SATURDAY WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WELL REMOVED FROM THE RAINFALL. LATER IMAGE IN POST SHOWS A SURPRISING TRANSFORMATION THIS STORM TOOK

TODAY: Somewhat similar to yesterday with a slightly later start to convection due to early day cloud cover. Mixing ratios throughout the atmospheric column for storm formation are in place for storm growth though lapse rates are not spectacular, especially because of cloud cover offsetting day time heating. Latest satellite image is showing a clearing trend with cumulus cloud growth already occurring where high clouds are not in place. Cool mid level temperatures though with precipitable water values at or above 2" means big rains possible, and those cool temperatures would sustain cloud coverage and lingering rains to well after dark . 

Steering is slowly toward the NE north of Lake Okeechobee primarily, more so from Route 50 in North Central Florida and north. Greatest instability is over the South Half of the state. 

Storms and showers that form along the sea breeze and Lake Okeechobee could propagate mainly north and east with time, with coolest mid level temperatures over North Central where suspect the end of day rains will be most prevalent once all the outflow boundaries build up on that side and storm growth, or broadening turns into a broad shield of rainfall.  Since there is cloud coverage and slower heating, the sea breeze might not make it as far inland before showers begin to erupt, but one way or the other many areas will see rainfall today, though not all. 

Localized flooding possible in prone areas, especially where rains have fallen heavily the past few days already in those areas; Osceola County for example and North Florida as well near Gainesville and west of JAX. And for today, parts of Brevard County where heavy rain fell this morning.  Lightning biggest hazard - noting that yesterday some storms exhibited lightning well before rainfall entered into the picture. Very dangerous in that regard so best not wait until dark clouds are near by...if the same repeats itself today.

TOMORROW: A similar pattern is in place in the wind fields aloft and at the surface, but exactly how that will pan out will only be determined again by what occurs later today and into tonight, and possibly over night into the pre-dawn hours. The east coast especially in Central and North Brevard had some heavy rainfall this morning before sunrise,  for example.

TUESDAY: As noted in previous post, this day seemed to be a transition day, the NAM still showing a day similar to Monday, but the GFS is showing the transition in place which would keep the afternoon dry at the coast. Therefore, this day remains a bit uncertain for the immediate coast other than possible early morning to noon time activity.

BEYOND: Activity begins to decrease in coverage as more easterly steering flow (for east to west) sets in favoring the Interior and western side of the state.

SAME STORM AS FIRST IMAGE. RAINFALL IS TO THE PHOTOGRAPHER'S BACK. AT TIME OF PHOTO, WINDS WAS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH into the formation shown.

Heavy Storms With Isolated Cases of Stronger Winds Possible East Central

ON THIS DAY LAST YEAR - LONE CABBAGE FISH CAMP, COCOA , FL

TODAY: Broad low pressure through the mid-levels circulates across North Florida and South Georgia places all of Central in generally a WSW-SW storm steering flow (toward the NE-ENE). Atmospheric moisture is plentiful as well, which could make for again some heavier rainfall totals exceeding 2 inches.

Greatest instability will be over South Florida into South Central, with winds just above the surface from the SW-SSW-S this instability might be able to advect toward East Central if activity holds off until after 2-3pm in that area. The East Coast Sea-breeze would be able to manifest and penetrate perhaps as far inland as I-95 if not further, though any early day activity after noon time until 2pm could offset that boundary with outflows that form from earlier showers further inland. Steering should be toward the east coast just a little stronger than yesterday. Some winds gusts in the 40-50 mph range were reported at very observation points used by the National Weather Service, with one gust of 58mph, though some of them were  40-50 feet above the ground. 

Water overloading with such high moisture content along the sea breeze / outflow convergence areas as storm begin to collapse could result in strong winds again though which outflow well from the source of origin in almost any direction. Thus, once the debut is over and the show gets going, almost anything could happen from that point on, almost anywhere toward the East half of the state south of I-4.

SUNDAY: Sunday again looks to be another variation of yesterday and what today will do, but again, it will much be contingent upon remaining cloud coverage from today's activities and where anything might surprise us over night. Yesterday there was some upper level energy over Central which is not showing up today, but is over North Florida right now and hence the activity there.
Too many variables for certainty regarding the most likely regions for storms, but regardless, they will be occurring somewhere tomorrow in similar fashion.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Monday appears to be similar with ample moisture with weakening eastward steering but not entirely. Tuesday is a bit up for grabs as to whether or not the pattern will be fully broken down yet or not, though at this point it appears most activity will remain over the interior outside of overnight to mid-morning isolated coastal activities either side of the state .

It can be noted that during to just after the first week of September the generic thunder storm season can start to draw to a close over all for certain parts of the state, as it has in past years, namely at the east coast. Though they can still occur, the easterly flow begins to dominate more and more going into Mid-Month as high pressure settles in north and east of the state in mid-Atlantic. The last day true thunderstorms manifested near the immediate east Central coast last year as part of the annual cycle was September 6.

Chance of a Few Stronger Storms Today SW Florida and Parts of Central

TODAY: Inverted trough swept across Florida yesterday from east to west and is now position diagonally west of the state for the most part and will remain so over the next two days; also a broad but weak cyclonic circulation over mostly the Northern 2/3rds of the state in Georgia is in place meaning SW-W winds aloft. A ridge axis will be located from near Lake Okeechobee toward Direct Central as time goes by toward Sunday and especially Monday. With winds aloft being weak regardless, this will allow all the west and east coast sea breezes to operate with slightly colder air aloft than was present for the past 10 days. Mixing ratios are more favorable today for storms to form without mixing out (if the RAP model guidance is correct). Under the assumption of HRRR model and GFS model trends are realized is upon which this post is based mostly

 

 ABOVE: Image is showing only a small part of the trough (red) which extends actually well to the SW into the Gulf of Mexico. The ridge is across South Central with westerly winds between those two features in the steering level altitude for storms, though very light. Storms could drift over Central toward the East around 5-10 miles per hour outside of any storms that could form along boundary interactions. Most instability is over South Florida however, so suspect the strongest storms outside of fluke outflow/sea breeze boundary interaction will be along the west coast sea breeze south of Sarasota toward Ft Meyers.

BEYOND: Each day will be a take as it comes contingent on pre-existing late morning conditions and the extent of remnant cloud coverage from the previous day. Some drying out appears to be in order though by Monday as storms will trend more toward the interior and away from the coasts by Sunday, with less coverage. 

Chance of Stronger Storms Late Thursday through The Weekend

"Like Something From Thousands of Years Ago"

TODAY/WEDNESDAY: Little change from latest pattern of last few days so not much to say as temperatures aloft won't be varying too much and moisture will sufficient for greatest coverage along to north of I4 toward the west side of the state, as well as toward SW Florida. Other than a random ocean showers coming ashore, the east coast remains in the clear in regard to rainfall with storms piling up along the west side, with strongest storms very late day along the west coast sea breeze collision with the east coast one. 

Changes appear to be on the way though on Thursday and more definitely Friday through Monday at least of next week.

"Summer Treasures"

FRIDAY-SEVERAL DAYS ONWARD:  Strong to perhaps a very isolated Marginal Severe  Storm or two Possible . As the GFS has been trending and perhaps another model comes to close agreement per a National Weather Service (NWS) Discussion, colder air loft is approaching. Colder than has been around for a few weeks even now with 500mb temperature to drop up to 5 degrees from what they have been and 700mb about 2-3 degrees, varying at times. 

This amounts to stronger storms, with steering varying from slowly toward the east to a stand still and perhaps a bit toward the west in the next week. Most activity to be 10 miles inland or more from either coast. With 700mb temps not 'too cool' most activity will hold off until after the sea breezes set in but that will have to be taken on a daily basis as the time gets closer. Thursday into Friday will be the biggest transition day and those days tend to have a few surprises. 

POSSIBLE REASON FOR GREATER STORM COVERAGE WITH STRENGTH: The GFS (Global Forecast System forecast model) has been implying perhaps 2-3 open TUTT (Tropical Upper (Level) Tropical Troughs) could pass by to the south to over Florida, and maybe a tropical wave or two. each   associated with colder air aloft and/or greater moisture. Varying sky conditions at almost any time day or night if the GFS implications unfold, though it was the latest run this morning that made the strong implication   so far. Time will tell. But the overall scheme of things is for a change from what has been the pattern of late. The locations least likely to be most impacted by the cold air aloft and increased moisture is the Florida East coast  general within 2 miles of the coast since eastward steering looks like it will be too weak for storm impacts there, though not entirely so.