Large Rainfall Totals Again Possible / Dangerous Lightning Main Threat

STORM NEAR CANAVERAL CRUISE TERMINALS SATURDAY WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WELL REMOVED FROM THE RAINFALL. LATER IMAGE IN POST SHOWS A SURPRISING TRANSFORMATION THIS STORM TOOK

TODAY: Somewhat similar to yesterday with a slightly later start to convection due to early day cloud cover. Mixing ratios throughout the atmospheric column for storm formation are in place for storm growth though lapse rates are not spectacular, especially because of cloud cover offsetting day time heating. Latest satellite image is showing a clearing trend with cumulus cloud growth already occurring where high clouds are not in place. Cool mid level temperatures though with precipitable water values at or above 2" means big rains possible, and those cool temperatures would sustain cloud coverage and lingering rains to well after dark . 

Steering is slowly toward the NE north of Lake Okeechobee primarily, more so from Route 50 in North Central Florida and north. Greatest instability is over the South Half of the state. 

Storms and showers that form along the sea breeze and Lake Okeechobee could propagate mainly north and east with time, with coolest mid level temperatures over North Central where suspect the end of day rains will be most prevalent once all the outflow boundaries build up on that side and storm growth, or broadening turns into a broad shield of rainfall.  Since there is cloud coverage and slower heating, the sea breeze might not make it as far inland before showers begin to erupt, but one way or the other many areas will see rainfall today, though not all. 

Localized flooding possible in prone areas, especially where rains have fallen heavily the past few days already in those areas; Osceola County for example and North Florida as well near Gainesville and west of JAX. And for today, parts of Brevard County where heavy rain fell this morning.  Lightning biggest hazard - noting that yesterday some storms exhibited lightning well before rainfall entered into the picture. Very dangerous in that regard so best not wait until dark clouds are near by...if the same repeats itself today.

TOMORROW: A similar pattern is in place in the wind fields aloft and at the surface, but exactly how that will pan out will only be determined again by what occurs later today and into tonight, and possibly over night into the pre-dawn hours. The east coast especially in Central and North Brevard had some heavy rainfall this morning before sunrise,  for example.

TUESDAY: As noted in previous post, this day seemed to be a transition day, the NAM still showing a day similar to Monday, but the GFS is showing the transition in place which would keep the afternoon dry at the coast. Therefore, this day remains a bit uncertain for the immediate coast other than possible early morning to noon time activity.

BEYOND: Activity begins to decrease in coverage as more easterly steering flow (for east to west) sets in favoring the Interior and western side of the state.

SAME STORM AS FIRST IMAGE. RAINFALL IS TO THE PHOTOGRAPHER'S BACK. AT TIME OF PHOTO, WINDS WAS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH into the formation shown.