Potential For "Inclement" Weather Next Week Remains

Early Fall October Storm Over Cape Canaveral, 2014

TODAY- MONDAY: Little change in current conditions as first cold front lies will south of the Florida straits toward the Yucatan. Another frontal boundary which will likely approach Central Florida 'dry' will enter into the picture later tomorrow into Sunday. This will result in a better low level westerly wind flow ahead of it, perhaps offsetting the sea breeze along the east coast on Saturday and/or Sunday. The boundary is forecast to make it about as far south as Central Direct or more toward I4.

It is this boundary that might play a critical part moving into early next week in regard to two factors:

1) The potential for low pressure to form in the Bay of Campeche. and;

2) Another frontal boundary to approach with another upper level system moving across the Central Mississippi River Valley Basin on Monday going into Tuesday. 

Meanwhile, morning lows similar to past mornings and remaining dry with a slight up tick in moisture and perhaps cloud coverage at the low levels Sunday afternoon or morning near the boundary, mainly North and Central Parts. The NAM shows no hesitation in breaking out full on rain showers over Volusia and Brevard, but suspect it's going a little over -board (which is oft the case with the NAM model).. Otherwise, morning lows in the lower - mid 60Fs most areas and highs in the lower-mid 80Fs but dry.

TUESDAY-BEYOND: This is the big question mark period referred to several days ago in the previous post. The chances of a tropically named system seemed to be going by the way side now, but instead a re-occurrence of an old theme from earlier in the summer emerges. An inverted low-mid level trough extending from the far SW Gulf across Central Florida or perhaps South Florida. The critical point to be noticed is the next trough approach early next week. The GFS implies a 'tele-connection' between those two systems (and might add, neither of which fully even exists to begin with). And it is that connection that is critical concerning what happens next. Therefore, given there is still 4 more days until even then...the rest goes without saying.

But the implications so far are that : In doing so the old boundary of Sunday though it might retreat north a bit returns south accompanied by a low stretched out 'troughiness'. ..as noted below. 

There is an explicit demarcation line/boundary between moist and dry air involved here as well, with north Florida so far not being included in this scenario. Might also add per forecast office discussions, the implication is per the Euro-model (ECMWF) that all 'said wet weather' could end up remaining south of the state entirely. For now will ride with the GFS though as a precautionary measure.

IF (now IF) the "worse for wear" evolves we could be seeing large rainfall totals over a two day period somewhere south of I-4 toward South Florida and possible a window of opportunity for isolated severe storms due to directional wind and speed shear in the mid to low levels with divergence aloft from the proximity of the jet stream (rainfall totals over 6").  If it does not, pleasant weather for the most part might well continue.