Strong/Near Severe Possible North Friday - Much Cooler Next Week

January Mornings in Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Pleasant weather in store as noted and expected. Another 'boundary' to slide by later today with little impact other than a wind shift. Other than that, mostly clear to a few clouds with cool mornings and pleasant afternoons with light wind and very cool ocean air at the beaches especially north of Ft Pierce, more so north of Cape Canaveral.  On this date back in ...see image. The warm temperatures all reflect pre-frontal passage overnight prior to temperature falls and not afternoon highs.

COURTESY NWS, MELBOURNE FL

 

COCOA BEACH AT 4PM IN THE AFTERNOON, 1985

THURSDAY: Cool start to the day with east coast sea breeze more noticeable at the beaches and perhaps some increase in lower clouds especially south half of state. NAM introduces some showers toward the west coast but for now would disregard.

FRIDAY: Winds becoming southerly overnight Thursday and picking up from the S-SSW during the day. Warmer with highs in the mid-70Fs but increasing high clouds as frontal boundary and accompanying broad surface low works along the Gulf Coast toward South Georgia through the day poised toward Coastal North Carolina in the days following. 

Chance of severe storms mainly Panhandle;  though instability is very low,  wind shear and helicity values from surface to 3KM are there along with cold air aloft, so severe or strong storms is possible along what looks like a pre-frontal like boundary . Further south the chance gets less likely due to lack of low level convergence along any formidable boundary , but there is always a remote chance of something popping up after early afternoon through dark but for now would have to be very isolated. Best chance of rain if any would be late afternoon south of I-4 toward 9pm, but so far indications are that it might not be in the form of storms despite the bulk shear in place.

MOST ACTIVITY WILL BE ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA NORTH OF I-4

SATURDAY: Front to cross Central Florida between 5AM -9AM Saturday morning. Could still be accompanied by thunder , as what appears might be a thin line of precipitation accompanies it but more than likely will end up being rain-showers but can't say never as vertical velocities are there and so is the helicity. Temperatures on Saturday Central will likely hold steady most of the day with clearing late morning hours as cold air advection moves in on WNW winds around 20 mph, probably in the mid-upper 60Fs.

SUNDAY: Much colder than of late with lows in the lower to mid 40Fs in some locations through and into the mid 50Fs to the South. Continued dry with WNW winds all day but not so cold in the afternoon with highs nearing 70Fs South half.

MONDAY: A little warmer and could be  very nice but another front  is on the way and then:  " Bombs away, prepare the 'muffs - n - mitts' for battle! "

TUESDAY: Coldest day possibly since last November with 'might'  be some upper 30Fs to lower 40Fs over a broad expanse and for the second time now a chance parts of Central and all of North will never see 60F with mid 50Fs more common.

WED-THURSDAY: Continued with colder mornings with perhaps yet another boundary sliding through sometime on Wednesday for a cold Thursday start. After Thursday and into Friday though it appears the shenanigans will be over and hopefully that 's it for the Winter~!   (good luck on that one though, but at least in regard for an extended period not that this winter has been all so bad anyway).

BEYOND: Watching Feb 1 -Feb 3. This is too far out in time for model accuracy in any way - shape - or form, but signals are hinting at perhaps the first severe weather outbreak in the Deep South (including parts of Florida) for  2015 . That could be switched off though at any time, but worth eyeing for kicks.