Slight Chance of Showers North Central, Febru-Dreary to End on a Warm Tune

Tuesday Morning, Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Frontal boundary across North Florida only slowly sinking south through Wednesday (and much slower than previous guidance was showing a few days ago).  There appears to be a bit of a thermal trough setting up near I-4 which might sink south a bit during the afternoon. It also appears a weak disturbance might be coming in from the northeast Gulf along said 'boundary' though none of the models other than the short range HRRR and to a lesser degree the RAP suggest a rainfall potential later today. Regardless, radar is showing showers moving in toward the West Coast near to south of Cedar Key where those longer range models showed nothing, so will ride with the short term guidacne and intro a rain chance today (or increased cloud cover) mainly over North Central to perhaps parts of Central all north of SR 60 toward Central Tampa Bay region.

Warm east and south of Lake Okeechobee today with highs possibly well into the mid-80Fs. Otherwise lower 80Fs to upper 70Fs over most of Central and much cooler north of I4 to I10.

WEDNESDAY:Frontal boundary still slow to work south and into Central Florida perhaps not until early Thursday morning. Continued warm (outside of cloud cover) , e.g. 'above to near average for this time of year'.  Rain chance has shifted since last blog post from the 2pm -10pm time frame to a  about a 4AM - 9AM time frame Thursday morning or about 12 hours later.

THURSDAY: Front to clear Central as it stands now by noon time Thursday (probably sooner); cooler but not cold temperatures this day and perhaps some lingering cloud cover.

FRIDAY: Overall, this day appears might be a surprise 'cold afternoon' day with little warming after sunrise due to a chance of cloud cover and a 'cold air wedger'  down the east coast   into Central Brevard from NE winds off the cold shelf waters. Some guidance goes so far to imply some rain showers but would hold off on that for now.

Water Fountain at the  Cape Canaveral Resort 

SATURDAY: Easterlies ensure over night with temperatures holding steady near the coast to even warming a bit; suspect we might see a lot of stratocumulus clouds and maybe some light spritz of rain into late morning or early afternoon as a result near the coast, but it would be a low end chance with highs in the lowers 70Fs to upper 60Fs near the east coast north of Vero Beach.

SUNDAY-THURSDAY: This time frame so far shows normal to above normal temperatures for the 5 day stretch as winds become more southeast to south for an EXTENDED period of time. Possibly an interior shower or two due to sea breeze convergence mainly SW Florida on Sunday but otherwise dry and quite pleasant to close out Febru-Dreary, thankfully the shortest month.  

Coldest Temperatures of The Season to Rebound Quickly Saturday

Late December of 2010, Frost Over Many Areas

TODAY: Cold front is on its way into South Florida this morning with rains ending and clearing already having worked it's way toward the I-4 heading toward 7AM. Clearing line to work south mid morning . Freezing readings are seen in the latest surface observations across much of the panhandle as of 6AM.  
NW wind and much cooler today with highs possibly reaching 60F in the midst of cold air 'advection' (incoming colder air filtration) along a line from Cape Canaveral to South Tampa Bay with 50Fs north of that line. Any 60F degree reading near that line will be brief though with the predominant mode being mid-upper 50Fs with lower 60Fs for South Central Florida. 

TONIGHT -THURSDAY: A secondary cold front with the onset of the coldest temperatures of the season and even last year appears to be on the way breaking headway after the 10 pm - midnight time frame for the "Central Florida" region.  This air will be accompanied by breezy winds gusting to over 20 mph with wind chill advisories already to be hoisted for Thursday morning. Widespread mid- upper 30Fs this morning even at the coast and very cool to 'cold' all day with highs Dead Central and north in the lower 50Fs to even upper 40Fs ('North') with mid upper 50Fs further south ;  60Fs restricted to the Deep South of Florida. The National Weather Service is talking about this and  will all be well advertised on local media outlets.

FRIDAY: Talk of wide spread freeze for zones mainly west of US1 and especially west of I-95 . Latest NAM shows a pocket of  coldest air west of Orlando but much of the state will be blanketed in the upper 20Fs to low to mid 30Fs (mainly below 35F in general) . Wind much lighter this day, so there might also be the chance of 'frost' but it's a bit too early to get into the refined details at this point. Friday will be also very cool to cold in the afternoon but the wind will be much lighter with highs eking out in the lower - mid 50Fs to upper 40Fs (North). But changes are in the waiting...overnight for the east coast, post the 2AM time frame.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY: Fairly consistence implications are that east coasters from the Cape South along and east of the A1A Strip (primarily) could wake up to morning 'lows' nearly 7-10 degrees warmer than the afternoon HIGH temperatures of the previous day...or in the lower 60Fs. Statewide though, by afternoon the temperatures could be nearly 20 degrees warmer than they will be Thursday and Friday .  We will go from coldest of the year and well below normal to easily 'normal' to above it  Saturday, with Sunday being even warmer. The 70Fs will return with a vengeance.

THE NEXT FONT SLATED FOR AROUND TUESDAY: But details are inconsistent with the passage of 'said boundary' and how far south it will actually work. Unusually cold air is not foreseen with this front regardless  but rain chances might need to be introduced somewhere between Monday and Tuesday with the quick onset of stiff SE winds (and hence 'moisture') foreseen later Saturday and Saturday night and all through Sunday.

Coldest Days of Season Late Wednesday Night through Early Friday

Morning Surf Fishing Cape Canaveral

TODAY Frontal boundary slicing its way across North Florida slowly progressing south with time today will make it into Dead Central only much later tonight around 2-4AM. Large blanket of light to moderate (occasionally heavier) rain across North Florida north of I-4 working south with time though the first main surge the entered that region earlier appears might be making off to the east for a respite in rainfall chances there soon.

Expect a slight change of rumbles, lightning and maybe some gustier wind to rest near or south of I-4 as shown in image below to begin to manifest after 4-5pm with entrance toward the Cape Canaveral line to Orlando between then through 7pm but barely working much further south than Brevard County on the east coast.  GFS continues to imply rainfall even after frontal passage over Central (up through sunrise   or an hour after ward) with rapid clearing into mid morning hours.

Warm today with highs near 80F outside of the cloud cover.  Winds SW 15-G 24 mph range.

TONIGHT: Otherwise, mild temperatures tonight south of the front. Rain chance increase to high end mainly north of a Sebastian to Port Charlotte line and decrease significantly south of that line in regard to areal coverage and 'intensity'.

WEDNESDAY: Highs might eke out 60F from Cape Canaveral and south for a brief time but remain in the mid-upper 50Fs north such as along the I4 and north. And remaining cloud cover at sunrise should be clearing out from west to east/north to south from early/mid morning into the afternoon over South Florida. A secondary cold front is on the way projected for Central Florida around 1-2AM Thursday morning accompanied but gusting WNW- NW winds   and even drier colder air.

THURSDAY MORNING: Much colder and windy with upper 30FS across much of Central Florida with only those regions east of US1 or I-95 to possibly 'escape' with lower 40FS but wind chills will be something to contend with after our mild weather of today.  

THURSDAY: Remaining very cool and possibly only in the lower to mid 50FS across many areas during the afternoon with winds gradually subsiding.

FRIDAY: This morning might be the coldest day state wide basis of the season since November with wide spread mid-upper 30FS but with much lighter wind. Not sure there will be enough moisture for a frost but never say never. Might be some freezing temperatures in the normally colder wind protected inland areas mainly interior North near Western Volusia into Lake County, Ocala and north (e.g.). 

The regions along the IMMEDIATE beaches east of the Banana River and south along the A1A  bacon strip from Canaveral and south appear might again escape the coldest air by a very narrow margin as guidance shows a very large temperature gradient between the beaches and just west of US1 to I95, such as the difference between mid 30FS (west) to lower-mid 40Fs beaches. Very touch and go though and wouldn't be surprised by a sudden drop even on the beaches into upper 30Fs close to sunrise for a short time. Otherwise, much 'milder' Friday though remaining cool as wind slowly veers to an easterly component with widespread upper 50Fs and low 60Fs.

WEEKEND: Southerly flow returns and the coming weekend looks to be near to above normal temperature wise as do many days thereafter.  

Not So Cold After-all ? Watching Wednesday for Storms

TODAY-THURSDAY: Gradual warming trend, at least through Thursday ahead of the next frontal passage slated to night time Thursday night into early Friday. No rain with highs in the mid-upper 60Fs to lower 70Fs both days but warmer on Thursday.

FRIDAY-TUESDAY: Yes, it will be very cool but the threat of near freezing temperatures or even mid-30Fs appears that it might be waning with successive model runs now. Temperature will be below 'normal' with highs on a few days only in the mid-upper 50Fs (perhaps) here and there, but Sunday especially which was seen to be quite cold is now not much different than other days.  There is more than on front foreseen but the details grow increasingly sketchy so will not attempt to get down to specifics but stick with generalities this morning.

That is only per the latest GFS though, and the previous run seemed to lean in this direction as well. Seems the colder air will now occur further west in the Plains as well and not penetrate as far into the Deep South of Florida south of I-10 toward the I-4.

WEDNESDAY: As of latest, possible strong storms with the strongest winds aloft in quite some time in the presence of the right exit region of a strong upper level jet. Best chances of 'strong' might be south of I-4 but much will depend on timing and that is still a good week away --  much could change.

BEYOND: It is now this period that  a truly cold blast is foreseen, yet short lived, with lows of freezing now again a threat, though it is getting late in the season and given how much has changed recently in the shorter term, not prepared to put much reliance on an outcast that extends over a week. On the other hand, the better news is that even if so, the GFS implies a prolonged warming trend.

To sum up, not quite as cold as 'feared' (though quite cool nonetheless) and chance of strong storms on Wednesday of next week for the time being.

 

Rain Today - Cold and Colder Yet Still Friday through Monday Morning

Cape Canaveral , Sunrise in February

TODAY: Busy schedule this week weather wise with rains already in progress along the West half of state and parts of South Florida as increasing cloud cover will spread across all of the state through mid afternoon (parts of South Florida doing a bit better). Chances are there will be no SpaceX Launch later today as a result. Otherwise, rains to begin and with very little let up once they do through dark tapering off into mid evening as low pressure exits off the east coast and strengthens. Residual cloud cover might be slow to pull out along the east coast.

TUESDAY: Cooler with northwest winds in the 15-25mph range possible with highs barely eking out the lower 60Fs. Some lingering lower clouds might be near the east coast for a time.  

WEDNESDAY: A cooler start to the day in the upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs and continued a bit breezy with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs. Another Front is on the way.

THURSDAY: Wind much lighter with another cool start in the mid-upper 40Fs inland to near 50F coast but warmer in the afternoon into the 70Fs ahead of the next front that will go through dry.

THURSDAY NIGHT: Next front to go through right after sunset with much colder NW winds on its heels. Lows will need adjusting over time but looks like widespread mid-upper 30Fs to lower 40Fs with possibly some freezing to near freezing in areas like Lake County - Ocala area and north. Might have wind chills advisories out for Friday morning



FRIDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON: As noted above, much colder to near one of the coldest we've had all season and continued much colder all day long and breezy with highs well down in the 50Fs (perhaps) if not upper 40Fs from a North Brevard County line to Brooksville on the west coast and north..   

SATURDAY: Another chilly start with a slight warm up, but here comes the "hum dinger' of a front per the GFS. If so, as another front to go through early evening with gusty northwest winds advecting the next surge of cold air down the state.

SUNDAY MORNING: Coldest day so far of the season since November last year with much more widespread freezing to near freezing temperatures and many areas seeing mid-upper 30Fs as well, possibly to the coast. Details will become more refined with time but it's not looking very fun, and the cold continues all day into Monday. So far some upper 20Fs might be possible northern interiors but really too soon to say just how cold it will be at this point.

MONDAY: Possibly, if the trend continues, widespread frost/freeze alert. Winds are to let up significant as high pressure passes just to the north which might up for a good 'drainage flow' situation. So far guidance would dictate only frost in some areas, but given the situation suspect the GFS might be underscoring the potential that lies ahead for a cold drainage morning, but warming in the afternoon with light wind.

TUESDAY: All over and pretty quick warm up commences. 

Rain Likely- ISO STORM Possible Early Thursday

EARLY MORNING RADAR shows rain but most is not reaching the ground over Central
But toward the West Coast, some might reach down though further inland north of I4

TODAY: Partly to mostly cloudy (esp. North Half of state) today and as a result continued a bit 'cool' with light southeasterly wind. Rain still appears to be forthcoming with certainty along and north of I-4 going into tonight and through early THursday morning.

THURSDAY: Latest GFS and NAM continue to show respectable 0-3KM helicity along a sinking warm frontal like boundary. Thing to watch for will be colder air from the North as a result of heavier rainfall acting as an impetus for localize increase in low level shear as it forces the boundary south to a line near Cape Canaveral to Orlando, but overall the threat of severe weather appears to be close to NIL as directional shear will be exiting east of the state prior to the greatest increases in vertical velocities throughout the column coincident with directional shear. Regardless, vertical velocities up to 700mb are shown consistently to be the greatest near I-4 south to within the purple bounds shown in the image above between 5AM - 8AM time frame.

Should ingredients that remain come together just right some strong winds might be experienced on a very very localized basis with some heavier but brief rainfall.  There is still several more model runs to go with each of them though, and things can change. This post is based on the 06z runs which are not always the best indicators. The 00z NAM showed a better chance of a stronger storm or two within the same bounds as shown in the image above (to keep in mind). 

The front is expected to be on a line near a MLB to Sarasota line around 1pm Thursday, with continued cloudy skies and perhaps some light rain patches up until that time along and south of the boundary. Cold air advection ensues immediately Post FroPa (frontal passage) with temperatures remaining in the lower - mid 60Fs most of central with a fall into the mid-upper 50Fs going into the afternoon as the front presses south on the heels of a NNW at 15-20mph.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: Again, onshore flow begins overnight Friday night if not a bit sooner from the NNE with winds around 20mph. This will prevent the east coast from Canaveral south from realizing the much colder temperatures that will be experienced inland and north of Orlando (thought even those  won't be terribly chilly or unusual for this season).    

BEYOND: Temperatures to remain a bit below normal over the weekend with the next front on tap in the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame. This boundary is not expected to be nearly as active as the attendant surface low will be well north of the state, but colder air is expected behind it than the upcoming front.

In the longer range there still poses a chance of a re-enforcing boundary to arrive mid-February but just exactly how cold it will get  with that one , IF SO, is too far out in time to make a realistic determination.

Isolated Storm "Dead Central" Early Thursday Possible

GROUND HOG DAY MORNING

TODAY-WEDNESDAY: Slow air-mass modification with light onshore flow and continued cool, a bit below 'normal' temperatures with increasing higher clouds mainly North Florida. Florida   recognizes this week as Severe Weather Awareness Week.

THURSDAY. Guidance continues to show about the same as the previous runs with a major exception in the GFS. No closed low other than a very weak one is now being shown to cross North Central to Central Florida with no intensification just off NE Florida. That is, just a weak 'circulation' crosses the state from sunrise through late morning.  Thus, the chance of Severe Weather goes down (from the previous blog post) as well as the chance of strong 'gale' like winds post frontal passage. Seems a warm front might make it as far north as I-4 but south of Daytona on the east side. The heaviest rainfall or largest totals might be north of the boundary in the colder air, with the better chance of thunder with rotation aloft only for a very brief window of opportunity between 5AM to around 10-11 AM (east coast) depending on timing. 

The  two models  noted, the NAM and the GFS, are a bit different in timing with the NAM faster which would mean any chance of a stronger storm (or any storm for that matter) would be over before 9AM in the morning, the GFS hangs on to about 10AM. Main reason for thunder would be bulk shear and 03KM helicity values in the presence of cold air aloft along the warm front, but surface based instability is close to non-existent, so chances are this will end up being a rain event of short duration. Regardless, rain on Thursday appears to be a near certainty.

Only a General Depiction and no all inclusive for the remote chance of thunder, maybe tiny hail if so? Warm front across Central will be the main player suspect though

BEYOND: Flow swings around to NE-E fairly quickly going into Friday and over the weekend but temperatures might remain a bit blow average though morning lows won't be anything other than something similar to this morning north in degrees and locations where it gets the most cold.  Breezy though for a day or two , so Friday will be a bit of a biter with breezy conditions very cool, and possibly a lower cloud deck as well with a few spritzes though suspect that chance might go by the way side. 

Meaning, east coast from the Cape south again will be the least vulnerable to the coldest air; lows mainly ranging through the 40Fs to lower 50Fs with some upper 30Fs possible Ocala and North (in general).

GREATER BEYOND: GFS hints in a few runs now at a big cold air intrusion out past Valentines Day,  watching that one.  The coldest one yet. 

'Possible' Severe Weather Threat Thursday - Gale Friday ?

February 1 Cape Canaveral Sunrise

TODAY: Slightly warmer today with a southeast wind breeze becoming more SSE late. Though a bit cool especially along the seashores north of Vero Breach due to the proximity of colder shelf Atlantic waters. Partly cloudy with a few mostly cloudy spurts especially near the coast off and on at almost anytime.

MONDAY: Cold front to cross down the panhandle during and Central during the late afternoon into the early evening. Southwest wind ahead of the boundary could be a bit breezy in the 20-28 mph with partly cloudy skies eventually becoming cloudy as the day wears on, but warmer with highs in the mid 70Fs  to lower 80Fs (warmer South Florida and cooler north). Chance of thunder mainly panhandle with a quick shot of rain or persistent lighter rain beginning mid-afternoon further south but no-sig accumulations likely if any at all.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Much cooler these mornings but afternoons not so bad, similar to past two days as winds rapidly swing around to the NE-ENE by Tuesday afternoon. At this time a low pressure area though weak might begin to form near the tip of SE Texas. That feature has been consistently shown now on Global Forecast System (GFS) model runs .  If so, the low is forecast to track along the northern gulf but further south than all the other lows this winter season so far  (i.e, over the water as opposed to on land). This then would become problematic for future forecasts over Florida.

THURSDAY: If latest GFS trends continue wouldn't be surprised to see a 'severe threat potential' hoisted out of the Storm Prediction Center. Past few GFS runs show plenty of directional and speed shear along a pseudo warm front situated near I-4 ahead of the low as it rapidly intensifies near Florida and exits off the east coast after dark. Down play for greater severe threat as of now is weak instability with the system,  but winds through the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere as shown this with rotation certainly possible unless things change.  

FRIDAY: Given the uncertainties on Thursday , Friday is even more   up in the air. Latest two GFS runs   show the  " yet to exist' low to strengthen significantly off the Florida East Coast as it moves off to the northeast. Wind wrapping around the back of the low with High pressure rapidly building in as well could produce  strong pressure gradient winds from NE Florida as far south as Coastal Brevard but again this is very sketchy. 

Latest guidance indicates gusts over 40 mph possible as cold air is drawn rapidly south on Friday behind the counterclockwise circulation  mid morning into the afternoon. The previous run was much kinder on the cold air advection portion but even stronger in the wind field department with gusts well above 40mph out of the north. 

Hence, for now, Friday and Thursday look like two  days that make the models worth looking at in the next couple of days.

Outside of those two days, the frontal boundary coming through Monday late will take us back down below seasonal norms temperature wise but not to a great degree. The panhandle looks like it will toying with the coldest air on this one down through NW Florida across the Ocala area  but the east coast from the Cape South looks like it will escape this one by a hair. Much depends now on what happens on Thursday / Friday on multiple factors , even how cold (or not) it will be next weekend.