'Possible' Severe Weather Threat Thursday - Gale Friday ?

February 1 Cape Canaveral Sunrise

TODAY: Slightly warmer today with a southeast wind breeze becoming more SSE late. Though a bit cool especially along the seashores north of Vero Breach due to the proximity of colder shelf Atlantic waters. Partly cloudy with a few mostly cloudy spurts especially near the coast off and on at almost anytime.

MONDAY: Cold front to cross down the panhandle during and Central during the late afternoon into the early evening. Southwest wind ahead of the boundary could be a bit breezy in the 20-28 mph with partly cloudy skies eventually becoming cloudy as the day wears on, but warmer with highs in the mid 70Fs  to lower 80Fs (warmer South Florida and cooler north). Chance of thunder mainly panhandle with a quick shot of rain or persistent lighter rain beginning mid-afternoon further south but no-sig accumulations likely if any at all.

TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY: Much cooler these mornings but afternoons not so bad, similar to past two days as winds rapidly swing around to the NE-ENE by Tuesday afternoon. At this time a low pressure area though weak might begin to form near the tip of SE Texas. That feature has been consistently shown now on Global Forecast System (GFS) model runs .  If so, the low is forecast to track along the northern gulf but further south than all the other lows this winter season so far  (i.e, over the water as opposed to on land). This then would become problematic for future forecasts over Florida.

THURSDAY: If latest GFS trends continue wouldn't be surprised to see a 'severe threat potential' hoisted out of the Storm Prediction Center. Past few GFS runs show plenty of directional and speed shear along a pseudo warm front situated near I-4 ahead of the low as it rapidly intensifies near Florida and exits off the east coast after dark. Down play for greater severe threat as of now is weak instability with the system,  but winds through the lower to mid levels of the atmosphere as shown this with rotation certainly possible unless things change.  

FRIDAY: Given the uncertainties on Thursday , Friday is even more   up in the air. Latest two GFS runs   show the  " yet to exist' low to strengthen significantly off the Florida East Coast as it moves off to the northeast. Wind wrapping around the back of the low with High pressure rapidly building in as well could produce  strong pressure gradient winds from NE Florida as far south as Coastal Brevard but again this is very sketchy. 

Latest guidance indicates gusts over 40 mph possible as cold air is drawn rapidly south on Friday behind the counterclockwise circulation  mid morning into the afternoon. The previous run was much kinder on the cold air advection portion but even stronger in the wind field department with gusts well above 40mph out of the north. 

Hence, for now, Friday and Thursday look like two  days that make the models worth looking at in the next couple of days.

Outside of those two days, the frontal boundary coming through Monday late will take us back down below seasonal norms temperature wise but not to a great degree. The panhandle looks like it will toying with the coldest air on this one down through NW Florida across the Ocala area  but the east coast from the Cape South looks like it will escape this one by a hair. Much depends now on what happens on Thursday / Friday on multiple factors , even how cold (or not) it will be next weekend.