Pattern Shift Overnight: - Storms (Isolated Strong - Late) Are Possible

TOUGH Forecast Today - Model Guidance Varies

TODAY: Long awaited pattern shift began overnight and is in full swing during the day into tonight through Wednesday and Thursday. For quite some time thunderstorm activity late day has been being directed toward the west or directed little at all. The pattern shift will bring storms more toward the east side of the state today, and possibly more so as we enter the early evening time frame north of Vero Beach.  

Steering will remain a bit slow until MAYBE late day after sea breezes will have come close to merging over the interior counties. Some activity might be able to make it back to the East Coast beach regions 'full swing' after 7:pm or so particularly from Brevard County and north as winds at the 2000 ft level are forecast by the latest RAP model to increase. By that time the east coast sea breeze will be well west of I-95 though, so any storms to make it back to the coast might have quite a time of it outside of unpredictable boundary mergers along with outflow from early activity. 

Some stronger storms seem possible around Lake Okeechobee  (Martin County for example as well as on the west and southwest side of the Lake) and over East Central mainly after 5:pm through 8:pm (in general) . 

Lighter shower and/or thunder activities might be able to begin as the sea breezes move inland, mainly over South Central/South since that is where the deeper moisture will reside to start the day...and parts of the west coast which appears for now to be the more active sea breeze today initially.

he strongest of activity will be contingent upon where more than two boundary mergers coincide late today / early evening. Biggest hazard as usual, lightning.

WEDNESDAY: Steering will be toward the east coast more definitely, but there might well be an 'early onset' along the west coast sea breeze front which would march east rather quickly. Cloudiness and lack of better instability as a result might remove the strong storm chance, but as usual, we'll just have to see what comes out from today and tonight to set this portion in stone.

THURSDAY: Perhaps another better day of stronger storms due to stronger boundary / sea breeze mergers and a later start to activities. Most activity might not reach the east coast directly (as in the direct beaches) except toward and north of I-4. Stronger storms would be near and west of I-95 and well away from the east coast for most of South and South Central.

FRIDAY-EARLY NEXT WEEK: Pattern shift to the old early east coast showers/ late day storms far interior and west coast. Drier air might come into play initially like Friday through Sunday, but with time and more moisture the east coast mainly from The Cape and South might see early ocean shower activity commence as was the case the past two mornings.