TODAY; Brief post today as subtle changes continue in the works. High pressure in mid to upper levels continues a slow retrograding retreat toward the West and will about complete this phase today before being eroded on it's eastern flank (over Florida) tomorrow and in the days to follow. As noted previously, the amount of moisture through the column will need to be sufficient through a deep enough lower for instability to overcome any particular 'dry slots' in the mid levels (combined with lower level moisture/wind convergence along lake/sea/outflow boundaries.
The dry slots are conducive for strong storms with downdraft winds being quite gusty to very strong, but with insufficient instability and proper convergence dynamics at play little more than clouds would be able to manifest.
The morning KSC sounding as a sample test bed came in more moist with stronger west to east wind at the lowest levels than the forecast RAP model sounding portrayed. The forecast RAP model then goes on to show mainly only showers over the state today except interior South Florida where strong storms appear most likely. The NAM (North American Model) tea leaves read the same and includes a spot up toward Flagler County in general late today to work south into Volusia county well after dark. Elsewhere, guidance in general was agreeing on mainly showers other locations.
Persistence from the past days would have to agree with this scenario; however, the morning KSC sounding was not what guidance portrayed which makes for a problem. Will that sounding be representative of a larger of enough area for storm/shower develop or was it more localized in nature at just that specific point in time? High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) magic eight ball shakes each hour are showing Low Coverage today and nothing even close to strong storms if even thunderstorms at all but mainly over the Everglades region. Question flags hoisted to full mast.
The proof of the pudding is in the sampling which the sounding did taste but that still does not answer the underlying inquiry concerning the other 99.99 percent of the state. Was not able to gain access to sounding data on line from other locations, but the other NWS offices are all hitting on strong storms today (state wide).
This post therefore takes all of these factors into consideration but is playing it on the conservative side. Conditions were over-forecast yesterday as it was ; therefore, this post and pseudo-forecast (as usual) is only a representation of areas that could potentially receive a shower, thunder. or strong storm but does not represent a high likelihood of any one location experiencing any of them. If other soundings are 'like' the KSC one, that chance would be increased (however).
The entire Florida east coast is in a slight drought condition though hardly 'drought' would qualify to describe it just yet, other than parts of far Southeast Florida
BEYOND: The same scenario plays out most of the week as models continue to show mainly isolated shower and storms over the state. By late week toward Friday into most of the following week there is a big shift though with a return to greater rain/storm coverage as the ridge to the west de-amplifies and no longer has such an inhibitive influence in the upper levels over Florida which is on the descendant side of its clockwise circulation. As it stands now, many parts of the state could see needed rainfall late week into early next week with a return to much more typical July like thunderstorm activities, which means ironically the longer range forecast as it appears now is a simpler forecast in regard to rainfall coverage than the short range dilemma.
No comments:
Post a Comment