Sloppy July Pattern Continues

July 22 2014  Banana River  

TODAY: New Day, same story and chapter, different page.

All in all little has changed overall with the potential of some small differences that ground base weather will reveal later today. Appears drier air to the North just south of I-10 toward I-4 would greatly diminish the potential for any heavier rainfalls there today. Upper level temperatures remain too warm to warrant anything more that some wind gusts if even thunder can form there at all. (see * Disclaimer further down)

Further south, the 700mb trough axis has shifted south as presumed but is losing identity. The only signal that might play in of its demise is slightly stronger WSW winds aloft which could pile up showers toward the East side of Central over Osceola, Eastern Orange, Brevard, Indian River, and Northern Okeechobee to St. Lucie Counties later today into early evening. This better steering is small though and haven't seen the morning KSC sounding given it has not been launched yet. Since no 'big weather' outside the running norm expected today  - decided to take the gamble and go ahead and post early on regardless.

South Florida could get into the action as well much later, but currently has very little going for it if guidance is correct. MIA appears to have agreed with this diagnosis at least for the shorter term.

Fuzzy cumulus probably could form by late morning with with warmer mid-level temps and little in boundaries to work with in the lower levels.  Almost no activity off the west coast this morning means all factors such as lake breezes and the sea breezes will need to be in play before initiation in the absence of any mid-upper level triggers. 

Sea breeze collision will be a long time coming and would be the impetus for some better developed activity perhaps over interior South Florida combined with outflows from Central Florida on the premise it does get going.  Not expecting any strong storms today nor much in frequent lightning, but any lightning is dangerous regardless..and it only takes one bolt to cause harmful consequences  that 20 anticipated ones would do.

 **** (Disclaimer: The NAM has shown the chance for a strong storm or two over eastern Volusia and north toward JAX in two consecutive runs and little else state wide which is suspect. Given the drier air up that way, this does have a possibility I suppose. )

EARLY-MID WEEK: Might see a decrease in activity most of state though GFS does show at least  showers and/or a thunder along most of the Florida east coast later in the day each day, likely a manifestation of the east coast sea breeze not making much more that 10-15 miles of inland progress each day with activity pushing back to the east after the west coast breeze has shifted across the state during the early and mid day hours.

LATE WEEK: Increase in rain chances could return. Reason being the high pressure that had retreated to Texas as mentioned over a week ago and is flattening out and has shifted a bit more east and south over the past few days (hence weaker storms) will  retrograde once again and allow a bit more troughiness down the eastern sea board. 

Temperatures aloft cool a few degrees with continued SW to NE steering flow, possibly increasing just a bit in the presence of an abundant moisture supply could mean increasing rain chances over larger areas FRIDAY-SUNDAY of the upcoming weekend. Most offices have picked up on  this and are referring to it in their AFDs, "Area Forecast Discussions".