Potential For a Powerful Lightning Storm or Two Later Today East Side

Morning Tide - Sunrise Time

TODAY: Pattern shift began last night as severe warned (and verified) storms pelted NE Florida early evening. Outflow boundary and accompanying rain made it to part of Central Florida, even some lightning inland late evening. The boundary is likely laying around over South Central still in some form even now and might work a bit north into early afternoon.

Meanwhile, light westerly to northwesterly wind at the low levels won't be strong enough to offset the east coast sea breeze as mid-upper levels winds increase to 15 -20 kts. This should be enough to at least allow rains to reach the beaches in some form..and depending on how quickly the west coast sea breeze works east could result in fairly strong convergence and upward vertical velocities (VVs) mainly from Eastern Osceola/Brevard, Seminole , and perhaps most of Volusia County or at least south half of it later today.

 The only apparent crimp in the style is early day activity already in progress at 10AM with lightning. Outflow from this activity could disturb the diurnal cycle contingent upon how long it lasts and why it is happening which is not apparent readily.

Morning KSC sounding does not show cold air aloft, but does show a bit of an inverted V at the lower levels and some pockets of dry air in the mid levels which could result in strong gusty winds due to rapid evaporative cooling through the low levels..with very swirly wind gusts in and near downpours.

TUESDAY: This day looks like it could be a variation of today so won't go into details.

BEYOND. Trough along the east coast once again as we rotate around the summer cyclic pattern of 2015 of storms toward the east side late day. Coverage will depend on moisture content of the atmosphere though which is hard to say at this time .  Chance we might see stronger storms in the Thursday / Friday time frame. 

Additional long range model guidance/forecast gets difficult with the overnight GFS implying remnants of Old 'Danny' Boy perhaps getting involved with the Atlantic Ridge axis and southerly flow toward the weekend or beginning of next week (?)..and wrapping around it toward the peninsula. Will watch to see if we hear TV weather stations implying that potential in days ahead. If so, could really need to UP the rain chances in the extended outlooks for many areas.

Solo Flight

Big Lightning Threat - Large Rainfall Totals Inland Possible

Early Morning Cloud Line along the Banana River - Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY - TOMORROW: These two days look similar as of morning model guidance so will clump them together. Chance of heavy downpours today away from the coasts with a few storms exhibiting frequent lightning possible. KSC sounding came in with very light wind up through the lower column, as such, wouldn't be surprised to hear of a funnel cloud sighting or two today - especially early on if something gets going near an area lake wind or sea breeze boundary. Best chances of heavier storms appears will be interior Central and South Central. Tomorrow - could be similar in nature, but exactly where the 'better chances' will be ..will have to wait until that time comes.

BEYOND: Continued mostly interior storms, with coastal or near shore water showers or even some thunder possible almost any morning (there was a lightning this morning off the Cape observed with a tall lone shower). The better chances of storms will be later in the day though over the interior well away from the immediate beach-side.

Upper level steering should be becoming more east to west going into Saturday and/or Sunday especially ..which would mark a pattern change to favor more of the west half of the state.

Tropical Storm Danny has been 'christened' for the record books. Last night's GFS forecast model brought the storm right into Florida..the following run left it well out at sea way before even getting close. Too soon to say is the verdict for now.

Broader Coverage / Iso-Very-Strong Possible Interior Central/South Central

Start of the Weekend - Top of the Morning

TODAY: Slight difference from yesterday before full pattern swing sets up for a solid week (which will result in sig. lowering of rain chances mainly east of I-95); but for today, colder air aloft than past days such as all of last week are in place. 

Steering wind is from the WSW-ENE from 7,000 feet and above averaging about 11 kts. Though some storms could initiate along the east coast sea breeze almost anywhere, they will first move west along that boundary due to less vertical development but might 'cling' east for a time. Latest Mesoscale analysis page shows some stronger  "Craven-Brooks severe" parameters in place over East Central Florida at this time which should advect well inland if they even last and be in place for sea breeze convergence boundaries later today mainly Central Osceola County into Polk, Southern Lake , West half of Orange and south into South Central Florida as well, or maybe just a bit east of the spine of the state as well.

 Some storm debris or if possible even a renegade thunder storm might make it back east toward the coast mainly near the Far North Brevard to Volusia County regions if conditions set up just right, but suspect the stronger storms will be further south and inland due to cloud cover still over a part of Central and North Central Florida at 11AM.

Note: If east coast sea breeze is slower to move inland by some fluke, true thunder with Cloud to Ground lightning could conceivably' reach the east coast north of Melbourne, but would be very unlikely.. Heavy downpours and frequent lighting seems to be the best bet today, if not some 'peas or B.B. hail". 

 Lingering rainfall over parts of Central or East Central might continue after the gang bang is finished and the strangling storm debris keepson keepin' on toward dark.

BEYOND: Deep south  - south east flow to focus all the thunder activities inland and west coast most if not all of next week and toward the weekend. This does not necessarily preclude areas along the immediate coast from all rainfall chances though. 

Guidance does show varying degrees of deep layer moisture from 1.7 - 2.2" PWAT (precipitable water) during this time frame, sometimes even at the coast. What that could mean is that regions at the beaches mainly south of I-4 (mainly Brevard and South) could experience pre-sunrise to late morning toward noon time showers before the sea breeze sets up in full swing on any of these days.

In the Far Beyond the GFS hints at perhaps a weak inverted trough - tropical wave-like feature might swing through in the next two weeks..if not two of them which could bump up rain chances all areas. It's starting to look much more like early fallish-tropical season now more than summer right now...that is unless the later runs of the GFS make yet another pattern shift before the end of August...perhaps toward the  26th might be possible

Increasing Storm/Rain Chances Today - Saturday

TODAY: Pattern shift which began yesterday will be in 'full force' in varying degrees and ways in sensible weather mainly today - Saturday. Though it is difficult at time to tell how cloud cover earlier in the day might affect the outcome for the afternoons in future days - today through perhaps Friday seem to be the best storm chance days, particularly Thursday (?) (GFS guidance).

Westerly steering flow at all levels varies for 8 -13 kts this morning and shouldn't change much during the day. The west coast sea breeze is already evident on visible satellite imagery and is to trounce eastward during the heating of the day to set off rain showers and some thunder 'here-n-there', but the best chance of 'pronounced thunder' will be near to east of I-95 up and down the east coast mainly north of West Palm or Ft. Pierce after 4:30pm toward early evening.

THURSDAY: Similar scenario at play looks to be the rule but perhaps with better state wide coverage. Colder air aloft comes into play on Thursday and suspect if that is to be the case (per the GFS model, 'Global Forecast System') then either stronger storms will be the rule or earlier onset or a combination of both. This might be the best day for stronger storms before the overall atmosphere gets to mixed in. 

FRIDAY: Also cold air aloft this day, might be an earlier on set but again, hard to say for certain.

On all days with a 'later onset' (after 3pm east side), the east coast sea breeze should be able to form since the winds at the lower levels though westerly (toward the east) are not forecast to be strong enough to offset the sea breeze though it will make little inland progress. With colder air aloft at play though, stronger activity if it does not ignite to rapidly could also occur most anywhere.

SATURDAY: More of the same.

SUNDAY: Looks like a pattern shift toward south to south south east flow which might leave the immediate east coast 'high and dry' outside of mid-late morning activities.

Lower Rain Chance Today to Zero Some Areas - Possibly Strong South Florida Mainly

Storm Moves Off Shore of Cocoa Beach Area Early Saturday Afternoon

TODAY: Big change today with much drier conditions many areas. A backdoor 'front' is progressing southward with drier air behind it. This 'boundary' should hold identity as far south as perhaps the Vero Beach area and arc back north a bit late today along the West Coast sea breeze front to along/near Route 27 in general. Otherwise, upper level winds shift from North (north half of state) to a bit more NW south portions as Jet Stream winds oddly round out from the NE at over 40knts.

Combination of drier air and strong upper level winds (though temps aloft are warm) could still result in a strong storm or two along 27 from Ocala and south but more likely south of the boundary over South Central and/or South Florida late today .  North of even I-4 is sketchy in the strong storm category.

The potential for this to occur was noted about 3 blog posts ago, that though a front might not make it completely through it appeared a mid level trough would. Only difference now is that the surface boundary did make it further south than foreseen.

MONDAY: Continued more of the same with rain chances more likely interior South Florida

TUESDAY: The Sonoran Heat Ridge which has been dictating much of the weather this summer  will again begin to retreat west , eroding on its eastern flanks across Florida and set up for an upper level trough digging down the east coast mainly east of the Mississippi if not further east setting up for SW Flow aloft once again. This becomes especially true by Wednesday and Thursday and firmly in place Friday through the upcoming weekend.

BULBOUS LOWERING CLOUD APPEARED TO HAVE ROTATION ON GROUND EVEN SO SLIGHTLY YESTERDAY AFTERNOON - SEQUENCE PHOTOS BELOW

BACK EDGE OF LARGER CLOUD AREA

AREA MOVING OUT TO SEA

Early Storms Already In Progress Mid-Morning

TODAY: Quick Post. As noted yesterday, today would take on 'the flavor' of yesterday and sure enough early day activity is in full swing with some stronger storms possible first along the west coast due to winds gusts (with some frequent lightning) working south into early-mid afternoon. This 'area' will also release the chance of some stronger storms across South Central/South possibly near the Big Lake zone along the Lake Shadow as day time heating will have had much more time to accumulate by the time the 'instigating impulse' reaches that area.

Not everyone will see rain today, worth nothing -- the East Coast especially north of Vero Beach is 'suspect' even early on today. Chances are there will be a 'shift in character' to the current activity by noon to 1pm but by then the chance of East Coast rains north of Vero will have already passed. Regardless, could still see some stronger wind gusts with rains. Will also watch for re-development for the zone of North Brevard and north toward Volusia/I-4 later this afternoon if substantial clearing can occur after the earlier festivities.

SUNDAY: Watching for stronger storms North Central / Central (interiors). The NAM is fairly consistent with strong VVs (vertical Velocities) in the presence of generous by August standards EHI (Cape/Helicity Indexes); however, it has been bouncing around with the GFS bickering for anything from strong storms to very little at all. Therefore, it is still a bit uncertain at this point in regard to the strong storm chances unless the NAM keeps squawking out some of its bizarre fore- sights

 

LATER SUNDAY  or INTO MONDAY-TUESDAY: Could see a break in the action until the next front approaches. After that point it starts to take on semblances of last weeks rain-daze events minus all the moisture. Either way, a return to more storms by mid-late week next week as well.

Chance of Marginal Severe Panhandle & Perhaps Far East North/Central

Heavy Thunderstorm Moves Off Shore at Cocoa Beach Pier , Thursday 

TODAY: As noted yesterday, today will be a variation of yesterday and so far that seems to be the case - the main likeness to yesterday will be not in who  receives what kind of rain as much as those that had a very low chance of rain yesterday - so too today. 

Otherwise, some new 'driving factors' are at play in the wind fields. Though moisture is bit tad sparser over Central the ribbon of it remains nearly the same running about 30 miles either side of a line running from Tampa to Port St. John on the east coast. It appeared even before Sunrise that there was a boundary there and it shows up even better now at sunrise. Steering today could become more NW if any STRONG / SEVERE STORM latches on to the East Coast Sea breeze particularly from near Ormond Beach south toward Southern Volusia. Thus, one thing that 'might' need to be considered is a 'right mover down the intracoastal later today IF the east coast sea-breeze gains momentum up-coast from a strongly southerly component much like it did yesterday over parts of Eastern Brevard County. 

Thus, the risk for strong storms along the east coast south of I-4 is conditional on the east coast sea breeze and any storm forming or even 'rolling' into this area from  a northerly direction OR acquiring a propagating principle down stream along the sea breeze front. 

Latest Mesoscale Analysis page is hitting on  a supercell component or rotating type thunderstorm parameter being present along a line from near Titusville to North Tampa Bay and north...however, with the additional sea breeze front which appears could form but stay perhaps east of I-95 today per KSC Sounding from this morning...could translate that 'supercell' principle further south into where moisture still resides to perhaps near South Melbourne Beach along the east coast if not Sebastian Inlet.

There is a BIG IF though. The forecast for this particular parameter is for it to diminish going into the afternoon, which would leave the chance of nothing more that a rouge thunderstorm in the equation along the Florida east Coast south of Ormond Beach.

BEYOND: Will watch for a chance of stronger storms again perhaps Saturday and/or Sunday but moisture availability and the level of the atmosphere where any will be useful is becoming sketchy. 

So far, the better chance of showers/thunder is being shown by the GFS to be along the east coast and Central Peninsula though we might start to see considerable overnight to early A.M activity along the Nature Coast (Big Bend area) by tomorrow or Sunday morning in association with an approaching frontal boundary.

Strange UFO-ic Sighting over Canaveral Yesterday

Chances of Rain/Thunder East Central Florida and I-10 Alley

"Gentle Morning Cruise"

TODAY: Pattern shift, most pronounced yesterday from a long-pronounced stretch in recent days especially along the West Coast where rainfall totals at one spot totaled up to just under 20" over a period of days with other totals 8" and greater, now in place.

Newly emerging set up now at play for today and tomorrow which should be fairly similar in nature both days favoring thunder more toward the East Coast.

Morning sounding at MIA came in with a pronounced inversion at 5000 ft and dry air above with a convective temperature of 102F. Hard to see how much could occur over South Florida today outside of a huge change in air masses. 

Short range models are showing storms down that way though will disregard for the most part.  The better overall locations of Deeper Moisture vertically through the column is about 50 miles either side of a line running from near Melbourne to South Tampa Bay.

With westerly steering at 10,000 feet at around 15kts and slower higher up, would anticipate storm motions to generally be from west to east at around 12 mph outside of anomalous propagation along outflow / set breeze convergence set ups which  which might manifest late this afternoon along the east coast sea breeze  but which should remain close to east of I-95 if not further east in some locations. The Big Lake 'shadow' might also be a factor for low level moisture convergence and storm development near Vero Beach to Sebastian Inlet. Very warm today as well outside of greater overall cloud coverage especially West Central and SW Florida

Best chances of thunder seems to be as shown in graphic below.  Strange little patches of late morning/early afternoon weak cumulus clouds already at play near the Cape area which is unquestionably a sign that things are different from yesterday's clear sky during this same time frame of noon.

General Estimate of Coverage Areas, though Might be More Thunder than Shown Here Central and North
(e.g. Vero Beach area to watch also)

BEYOND: Friday looks similar, and then into the weekend a frontal boundary will  work to I-10 corridor from the North. Latest NAM model however shows the mid-level trough making it's way right through which switches the wind directions around (steering currents from the N-NW) but leaves ample moisture with low level westerlies. All in all, after tomorrow looks like another pattern shift but with isolated to scattered thunder remaining in the equation, with South Florida getting in on the action. Exactly how that will manifest though at this point is a bit hard to saw from looking at the 12z (8AM) model runs so not going to bite yet on specifics.