Chances of Rain/Thunder East Central Florida and I-10 Alley

"Gentle Morning Cruise"

TODAY: Pattern shift, most pronounced yesterday from a long-pronounced stretch in recent days especially along the West Coast where rainfall totals at one spot totaled up to just under 20" over a period of days with other totals 8" and greater, now in place.

Newly emerging set up now at play for today and tomorrow which should be fairly similar in nature both days favoring thunder more toward the East Coast.

Morning sounding at MIA came in with a pronounced inversion at 5000 ft and dry air above with a convective temperature of 102F. Hard to see how much could occur over South Florida today outside of a huge change in air masses. 

Short range models are showing storms down that way though will disregard for the most part.  The better overall locations of Deeper Moisture vertically through the column is about 50 miles either side of a line running from near Melbourne to South Tampa Bay.

With westerly steering at 10,000 feet at around 15kts and slower higher up, would anticipate storm motions to generally be from west to east at around 12 mph outside of anomalous propagation along outflow / set breeze convergence set ups which  which might manifest late this afternoon along the east coast sea breeze  but which should remain close to east of I-95 if not further east in some locations. The Big Lake 'shadow' might also be a factor for low level moisture convergence and storm development near Vero Beach to Sebastian Inlet. Very warm today as well outside of greater overall cloud coverage especially West Central and SW Florida

Best chances of thunder seems to be as shown in graphic below.  Strange little patches of late morning/early afternoon weak cumulus clouds already at play near the Cape area which is unquestionably a sign that things are different from yesterday's clear sky during this same time frame of noon.

General Estimate of Coverage Areas, though Might be More Thunder than Shown Here Central and North
(e.g. Vero Beach area to watch also)

BEYOND: Friday looks similar, and then into the weekend a frontal boundary will  work to I-10 corridor from the North. Latest NAM model however shows the mid-level trough making it's way right through which switches the wind directions around (steering currents from the N-NW) but leaves ample moisture with low level westerlies. All in all, after tomorrow looks like another pattern shift but with isolated to scattered thunder remaining in the equation, with South Florida getting in on the action. Exactly how that will manifest though at this point is a bit hard to saw from looking at the 12z (8AM) model runs so not going to bite yet on specifics.