Higher Likelihood of Rain/Storms Saturday Many Areas - Not a Beach Day

September 11, 2014 Cape Canaveral

FUTURE-CAST: Shifting 'sands' occurring as a frontal boundary approaches Florida over the weekend. The wind shift line associated with this front appears will make it as far south as Lake Okeechobee by Monday but the moisture associated with the boundary will remain as far north as around I-4 (in general) underneath the 700mb trough which remains north of Central Florida. 

The boundary determined by the wind shift at the surface (ground level) is then to wash out and lift back north going into Tuesday with very little change in temperatures at all and  continued high humidity south of I-4 or a bit north of there. 

This boundary passage though might well make the true 'beginning of the end' of sea breeze convergence type thunderstorm activities for 2015...outside of a few days here and there spread out across the next two weeks (at least for Central and North Florida).

TODAY: Chance of showers and some thunder mainly south of or near SR 528 east side of state and south. The greatest concentration might well be St. Lucie County and South where east coast sea breeze has the greatest inland penetration accompanied by the Lake Okeechobee Shadow affects. 

Chance of showers or even thunder perhaps as far north as Cocoa Beach late today or even early evening - perhaps as late as was the case last night for Cape Canaveral/Cocoa Beach/ Merritt Island zones (surprisingly)  after 10PM last night.

General Guess-Cast for Today (South Central) and Saturday (North half of State)

SATURDAY: Disturbances associated with upper level trough and the surface front to ride mainly over the North Half of the state. There is close agreement in guidance that activity will propagate and move along from west to east beginning early to mid morning from west coast to east coast. The affects of such can already be seen further to the west over the Northern Gulf as of 2pm today. Saturday looks to mostly a cloudy day (except maybe before noon for interior and east coast)..with increasing rain chances, even storms, some possibly on the stronger side.

SUNDAY: With the disturbances having passed, Sunday should be a much more dry day, though not sure about cloud coverage. Lower temperatures over Central/South (mainly in the afternoons) would be a function of cloud coverage and not of cooler air having filtered this far south (which will not be the case along I-10 where it will end up being both drier and cooler). Such affects will be short-lived in any regard, however, as the boundary is absorbed by high pressure passing west to east north of Florida and the remains lift north potetnially as a bit of an inverted trough along the Florida east coast. going into Monday and Tuesday.

FUTURE: Might watch for a 'min-rain event" along the Florida east Coast, especially from Vero Beach and South mid-late week next week or potentially as far north as Daytona. Too soon to say if even that will occur, but the set up is staring to look like there is a potential for one over a 2-3 day period somewhere along the east coast with prevailing and deepening easterly flow and cooler air aloft at times.