Increasing Cloud Cover / Light - Moderate Rain / Thunder All Possible Today

TODAY: Image above shows it all - Storm Prediction Center is Highlighting Far South Florida for Stronger Storms but for UNOFFICIAL blog purposes only see no reason that there would not be a chance for a stronger storm as far north as a line running from Port St John toward Brooksville on the west coast. As noted, yesterday, the circumstances under which we'd have rain chances today are completely different from why we had rain chances on Monday.

Otherwise, abundant cloud cover will overall be the rule of the roost as we work toward early - mid-afternoon

WEDNESDAY: Easterly wind and a bit cooler on the east coast with a slight chance of rain interior and west but slim at that.

THURSDAY: Again...wind becomes much more southerly and increases . A bit breezy at times and muggy with a chance of showers and or thunder mainly North Central and North as the next frontal boundary approaches.

FRIDAY - SUNDAY: Frontal boundary to lay out somewhere across Central or South Central Florida with numerous disturbances to ride the boundary up through at least SUNDAY

Chance of stronger storms 'depending on how things develop'  and/or some higher rainfall totals in a few select areas - but details too sketchy to be definitive on anything at this point in time - though consensus is gathering that a few points in time over the weekend will not be conducive for outside activities.

Chance of an Isolated Strong Storm East South Central

TODAY: No doubt a tricky forecast today with

A. A decaying frontal boundary across Central Florida very close to the Cape Canaveral to Tampa Bay line which might work a bit further south then lose much of its identity; and

B. Cloud cover in vicinity of boundary to offset what could be a more active day.

Regardless:

Looks like though winds just off the deck and steering currents are from at a general west to east at  18 - 25 mph the decaying boundary will produce the impetus to allow sea breezes to form due to a weakened surface pressure gradient flow,  but remain within about 10-20 miles of the east coast if not closer.  

Latest Short Term model runs including the NAM do show some clearing and storms to generate not long after and perhaps even during peak heating (around 1-2 pm) mainly along or near the 'what was' front. 

As usual, outflow boundaries (from any activity over 'direct Central') combined with sea breeze convergence might be where the real show will be further south, but with such brisk winds just above the deck it is near impossible to ascertain where subsequent activity might manifest in regard to proximity to the east coast. 

Might see some 'high rollers' very near the coast or even to form just off the coast (and move eastward) though anywhere from the Cape to as far south as Ft Pierce.

TUESDAY: Again, similar chances of rain-showers/storms might occur. NAM (not usually favored on this end at least) implies several small vort lobes to cross the state tomorrow afternoon, and haven't seen that the GFS shows this to be the case. Therefore, will not go into detail on Tuesday other than that there is a chance of  cloud cover (or at least plenty of it)..and showers and/or storms once again but under a different set of circumstances than today.

WEDNESDAY :  Onshore flow should resume well enough to preclude all but far western interior and west coast locations (somewhere) to have a rain chance. 

Next system approaches right around April Fool's Friday...with either storm chances being introduced anywhere between late Thursday or Friday in some fashion.  

Will not venture into this time territory yet , for even today and Tuesday is murky enough.  "Hints" that perhaps a better chance of severe type weather might emerge come later next week though has been indicated off and on the past two days by the GFS (Global Forecast System). but so far looks shaky.

Thunder (Isolated Strong Possible) Mainly Eastern Central Florida Today

Moon Set Early Good Friday Morning

TODAY: No surprises in blog forecast post this morning; as expected timing of system passing across Florida in this pernicious (in regard to a forecaster's reputation) pattern especially in regard to timing is problematic especially in regard to cloud cover induced by storms over the eastern Gulf and this morning is no different.

Although not exactly, so far this morning doesn't look a whole lot different from yesterday morning at the same time; as a result, the forecast for storm locations and strength is nearly identical to that of yesterday with only one caveat: The Timing.   Apart from necessary instability a trigger might move across mainly parts of North Florida (North of I-4) earlier in the Day today.

Forecast reasoning is based on cold air aloft, best instability from near I-4 and South (especially South Central) with that instability advected into and/or toward East Central Florida  combined with any boundaries that might emerge southward from the north. Chance once again of more than one storm 'session' especially if activity gets going by or before the 2-3pm time frame as was observed yesterday over East Central and the Eastern South Central toward northern parts of South Florida later yesterday.

Good Friday afternoon around 4pm in Cape Canaveral looking West

Yesterday there was two 'officially reported' severe storms per the winds  (both in East Central Florida) though strong winds were reported as well in many locations associated mainly with a storm cluster that moved from the Tampa area toward the East Coast. Some more heavy rainfall reports are filtering in as well to add to any tallies from the previous day.

EASTER SUNDAY:  Again, this day will be problematic so will run with persistence. Chances of early morning light rain North Florida (mainly panhandle) and potential that a shower could 'pop' even toward Central prior to 9AM. Better chance of activity with thunder would be after 2PM and mainly North and North Central Florida into eastern parts of Central.

MONDAY: One last gasp and storm chances though overnight GFS implies perhaps Tuesday as well due to mainly sea breeze convergence activity south of I-4 southward to south Florida and mainly inland .

After Monday (and / or Tuesday) things look quiet for a few days with a drier onshore easterly to eventually southeast flow making for warmer early east coast mornings but seasonal in the afternoon with highs in upper 70Fs east coast to some lower 80Fs further inland.

BETTER storm chance re-emerge toward Friday and the April 1st -2nd time period. No foolin' ! 

Strong/Marginally Severe Storms Possible South Central Late Afternoon - Evening

Opening Son Flower - Cape Canaveral on Good Friday

TODAY: After a rain and lightning-fully active evening with numerous boundaries and cloud cover abundant at pre-dawn it will take some time for air-mass recovery (where it is possible).

Early day post might be overdone but given the latest RAP and HRRR output hard to ignore CAPE upwards to 3000 j/kg (highest since summer time) South Half of state though the latest NAM and GFS show values considerably lower. Cold air aloft coupled with increasing wind at the lower levels enough to nearly but not entirely offset the east coast sea breeze with temperatures warming into the lower- mid 80Fs where better cloud breaks are sustained for a few hours over parts of the state south of I-4 might be 'the zone of contention' later today.

"Possible Fly in the Ointment" in forecast today from any potential outflow boundary that could result from activity in the Gulf - if so - much of the forecast will be 'blown away'.

Early Morning Infrared shows two complexes of storms on either side of the state and a boundary
that raced south from North Florida now approaching Lake Okeechobee

Given what is shown in those models outside of 'other things' will ride on the higher CAPE and cold air aloft coupled with sea breeze and potential Lake Okeechobee boundaries for today 's post calling for some stronger storms, possibly low end severe and mainly closer to the east coast after 3 pm up to as late as 9 pm with other activity still possible, outside of any unforeseen events.

SATURDAY: Again a chance of stronger storms toward the east coast mainly from Brevard County to Jacksonville - though again - what is to occur on Saturday, and when,  might well be contingent upon what does (or does not) occur today. Especially watching for an foreseen possibly outflow from the mass out over the Eastern Gulf as to how that might end up working into the equation (see previous image above - infrared satellite)

SUNDAY-MONDAY: Looks more like an 'all clear' for most areas on Sunrise Easter Morning except the Western Panhandle.  

Frontal boundary that is near the FL/GA border will oscillate generally in that area into Monday where the overall greatest rainfall issues will be (that is, namely north of I-4). Rainfall could move in from North and West to Central portions of the state from late morning into early afternoon.

 Only parts of South Central and South Florida appear will continue to be in the "less chance of rainfall and storms" category through the duration of this multi-day rain chance event (some heavy) with totals possibly exceeding 4-5" before all is said and done in a few select areas. My location observed 2.50" over night and from the looks of radar last night, parts of Osceola County likely far exceeded that.

TUESDAY: Strong storms are not expected on Tuesday .  There is still a chance of some rains Central South on Monday - but by Tuesday it looks like : "The Show's Over" for several days (nearly a week). Cooler but not cold with easterly flow regime established.

Marginally Strong - Near Severe Storms Thursday - Saturday / More Rain Chances through Tuesday (at least)

Tranquil Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Only slight change from yesterday's sensible weather. Still very cool inland early this morning but mild along the immediate east coast . 

Warmest pre-sunrise temperatures are running along the Key West line of US 1 northward to near the Cape  -  though further north toward St Lucie County they follow the line of A1A and eastward - temperatures in the mid-upper 60Fs to near 71F in the warmer areas but 50Fs and even some 40Fs prevail elsewhere.  

Regardless, with onshore flow working inland interior and western parts of the state will realize upper 70Fs today while east coast locations will be limited mainly to mid 70Fs with some increased patches of mainly stratocumulus clouds. 

Changes are coming after midnight from South to North though and will remain in place well through the up-coming Easter Weekend.

THURSDAY: Deeper southerly flow should usher increased atmospheric moisture from The South northward toward the Dead Central Line by late in the day coupled with increased instability and cold upper level temperatures. Oft fresh surges of moisture accompanied by instability can be harbingers of some rough weather in the spring and early fall seasons so will hold no bars on this post though the chance of strong storms looks rather slim (at time)...won't hold back from these conditions this time of year throwing some wild punches. Granted, no true forecast works on hunches alone...as...

 Thursday's forecast is 'very' touch - n- go, but some guidance has been very consistent with a 'strong to near severe chance'  of activity somewhere along the East Central Florida coast now in almost consistent manner for two days sometime mainly between 5pm - 8pm.

MORE DETAILED "***UNOFFICIAL***" INFORMATION FOR UPCOMING DAYS 

CONTAINED IN IMAGE BELOW

GOOD FRIDAY:  Friday looks to be another day with   a better chance of storms, some on the strong side with hail possible mid-late afternoon 

EASTER SUNDAY FORECAST:  

This morning will be completely dependent on whether or not an upper level disturbance is passing from west to east Easter morning for rain chances at Beach Services.  Guidance has bounced around on this for a few days now and point is, it is simply too early at this stage to say if there will be rain on sunrise Easter morning, though so far things look to be  in favor of beach-side participants, at least along the East Coast up through 9AM.

BEYOND: As noted from the captioned image above, any frontal boundary that works into Central Florida early on should lift right back north and dissolve, thus we will be in the waiting game for the next front which would be around late Monday. 

Some guidance implies that front too will never quite make it down the state which puts Florida (at least south of I-10) in the position of awaiting yet another front which might not be but well out of forecast range. 

In the more extended after Sunday or Monday it would appear (IF that is the case) that most activities would be limited toward the interior counties. 

There is a chance as times come closer that there will be some mesoscale systems that will form in the northern-eastern or eastern gulf on 'any day' after Saturday as a result of an upper level disturbances which would throw a wrench in the 'mainly afternoon and early evening' proverbial cliche for best rain chances in regard to timing (given that it is the time of year when disturbances associated with the Northern upper level trough systems can still affect Florida).

Either way, some much needed rainfall this time of year appears to be in the cards ranging from 1- 4" between Late Thursday through Monday (especially if we go into even mid week). 

That has been indicated by earlier GFS runs, even 3 days ago. Upcoming days might not all be a walk in the park either to forecast or for outside activities; but at least it will be warm with temperatures at time above seasonal norms with no cold air foreseen whatsoever. 

Even out to April Fool's Day the forecast at times has called for 'severe' mainly across parts of North Florida but again that is not so much a forecast as much as projection of potentialities.

Isolated Strong Storms Possible - Spring Comes With a Cold Greeting

TODAY: Frontal boundary near Florida/Georgia border accompanied aloft by at least one or two upper level disturbances to past from west to east during the day, the first of which is already in progress prior to sunrise over the northern Gulf near the Panhandle. 

High clouds could continue to spread across the state with best heating to occur South to South Central or perhaps to "Dead Central". Cold temperatures aloft coupled with respectable bulk shear throughout in the upper-mid levels could sustain some taller activity with accompanying strong wind gusts. 

However....

No clear cut way in which how things will evolve today though HRRR radar simulation implies some 'pre-main show' activity might actually be the Real Show, which would be South Central to South Florida. Regardless..the best chance of stronger winds might well be with whenever the first activity crosses any given area as after any first round of rain (in whatever form that might take) would stabilize the lowest levels of the atmosphere in and around that rainfall.  Either way..timing appears to be anytime over Eastern Half from 1pm onward (if not a bit sooner) and earlier North and West.

Strong storms possible with gusts toward 50 mph. Latest Mesoscale Parameter page on the Storm Prediction Center's Website is showing even severe conditions possible out in the Gulf (a supercell thunderstorm was visible on Tampa's radar very early this morning) but not sure those parameters will manage to work onto and over the peninsula itself.

It's worth 'noting' that the early A.M. Global Forecasting System (GFS) model run is not showing all that much activity today at all in regard to large rainfall totals, but that might be accounted for by fast moving activity. 

On the other hand, if stronger activity erupts toward the West coast first anvil debris might sufficiently cut down/ limit low level instability. No two models are in agreement, therefore SPC has much of the South Half of the state in a  'marginal risk' (and for other specific meteorological reasons as well).

Either way, rain chances today (and much needed at that) are in the cards through sunset in various forms from very light to strong storms (mainly as shown in the image below) ; it would be helpful to get a good dousing as brush fire season is at hand.

SUNDAY: CELESTIAL SPRING ARRIVES - GLORY BE!!

March Equinox in Cocoa Beach, Florida, USA is on
Sunday, March 20, 2016 at 12:30 AM EDT

Spring along the East Coast of U.S. begins just after midnight tonight.

Chance of cloud cover and even some light rain could persist from time to time south of I4 or even I10 through early afternoon with thunder possible parts of South Central and South as cold front progresses down the state with clearing later in the day into the overnight.

MONDAY - First FULL Day of spring: to be greeted with a cold NW wind gusting to over 25 mph with cleared skies and lows in the mid-upper 40Fs (warmer far South) coldest North and North Central Interiors. Highs in the lower to maybe mid 60Fs with breezy conditions continuing but dying off late in the day into the overnight.

TUESDAY: Though cool in the morning not nearly as cold as Monday with much less wind. Warmer by around 8 degrees in the afternoon as well as wind becomes more easterly and eventually southeasterly around 8-12 mph.

WEDNESDAY: "Cold shot' is history as southeast wind greets a much warmer East Coast morning with highs in the interior near 80F and mid to upper 70Fs along the east coast.

BEYOND To THURSDAY: Chance of Thunderstorm south of I-4 once again. Will watch for stronger activity. This day is the first since nearly last year that sufficient Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is shown to be in place, and for the GFS model to show that this far out in advance over Florida (something which it seems to rarely do) it will be interesting to see if it is not underscoring just exactly how unstable it might actually be.

GOOD FRIDAY- EASTER: More rain/storms chances at play (possibly strong) but again just exactly how this will play out and the timing of said chances will remain unknown until closer to the actual dates and time. 

GFS rainfall accumulations depicted over the period from Saturday  through Monday have been up to 4" in some locations due to mainly heavy storms (not all day rains)...just as a hint of what might be coming down the pipe .

Storms Possible Saturday / Much Cooler Monday / Watching Easter Weekend

Early Morning Paddle Boarding (Tuesday)

TODAY: Frontal boundary toward the Florida/GA boarder could result in some thunderstorms, with most activity remaining near and north of I4. Considerable thin high and some mid level clouds could work across the state from time time throughout the day. Highs like the past few days tempered by the cloud cover and closer to the coast much cooler in the afternoon with east coast sea breeze. There 'might' be some showers as far south as Central per model guidance (like the short range HRRR model , but suspect this might materialize mainly as increased cloud cover)

SATURDAY: The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) is outlining a marginal risk of severe storms mainly along and north of I4 to as far south as the Mim's area in North Brevard County though this might be modified to a bit further south in time so for blog purposes will refrain from including in post beyond that for now. Regardless, though there could even be a chance of a shower as far south as Central Florida today (Friday) the much better chance for rain or even thunderstorms appears will be sometime Saturday/Saturday evening south of I4 toward north of Lake Okeechobee.

SUNDAY:  Frontal boundary to drop south to Central Florida and yet further south during the first half of the day followed by much cooler NW winds - - the harbinger of much cooler air (well below 'normal') for a few days. No truly 'windy' conditions are expected with the boundary like previous fronts just a few weeks ago.

MONDAY: Much cooler with highs in the lower-mid 60Fs and lows in the upper 40Fs to mid 50Fs (Southeast Florida coast).

TUESDAY- WEDNESDAY: Though continued cool not AS cool with highs eventually reaching back to the mid-upper 70Fs by Wednesday afternoon as winds swing from North (Monday) around to southeast (Wednesday).

BEYOND: Watching GFS trends. Last two runs show potential for strong/severe storms anytime from around Good Friday through Easter Weekend and well into the following week. Granted given the extended time frame and discontinuity between various model outputs in regard to both timing/strength at this point only a heads up with all the Easter Morning sunrise services which would be at play on the 27th.

Mid- 80Fs Through Wednesday East Side - Chance of Showers/Thunder East Central Later Today

Seeing Warm and Sunny Days Ahead

TODAY: Remains of frontal boundary (mainly some increased moisture) with cool temperatures aloft and chance of east coast sea breeze / overcast cloud shadowing (north) merger could result in thunder mainly Volusia/Brevard/Osceola Counties (but not exclusively) later today. 

Otherwise, warmer toward the east side of the state where this part of the state has been 'missing out' on the warmer afternoon high temperatures due to cooler sea breezes blowing off upper 60Fs water temperatures. 

With a more SW to SSW wind for at least the first parts of the afternoon they will be able to rise nicely into the low - mid 80Fs.

BEYOND: Monday - Thursday

Little change in the wind fields at the surface but decreasing moisture will reduce rain chances to near zero except maybe some showers South Central/South on Monday. Otherwise, continued warm with morning lows in the mid-upper 60Fs and highs in mid 80Fs though wouldn't be surprised to see some upper 80Fs interior toward the east side almost anywhere.

Next rain chance though slim might be Thursday as moisture begins to increase. Temperatures cool off by Friday as frontal boundary washes out across 'Central Somewhere'. So far thunderstorms do not look to be in the equation , as of now, with that boundary though cloud cover and shower chances do work in (Friday and/or Saturday especially).

Few Rain Chances - Temperatures At to Above Normal Toward Mid - March

TODAY- WEEKEND: A frontal boundary will be passing down the state today from north to south crossing Central Florida near sunset. Warm today even with some high clouds though not as warm as it would've been otherwise. Highs in the upper 70Fs to lower 80Fs though some mid-80Fs possible South Central regions . No rain forecast with the front . Wind to switch to NW with frontal passage and become more northerly overnight.

Though it will be a bit cooler Thursday morning another rapid - fire system passing well to the north will lift what is left of the boundary back to the north with more southerly winds entering the picture by Thursday afternoon already! Warm again then as a result. The next front then approaches Thursday evening early Friday with more cloud cover and maybe a spritz  north of Central mainly. All in all - rain chances remain negligible to non-existent other than a quick light shot but it looks to be rather remote. 

 Though some mornings will be a bit cooler than others, for the most part the immediate coast will receive in flux of warmer air from over the nearby waters (water temperatures off the Cape are running around 68F ..)..but warmer yet still near-shore from West Palm and South. 

Net Result: Apart from the above stated, no rain chances through next Wednesday as stout high pressure to the north of Florida results in easterly wind gradually becoming more Southeast and increasing a bit as it gradually moves east of the mid-Atlantic region. 

Mornings could well be in the mid-upper 60Fs (above normal) from Sunday on through late week next week at least.

The next storm system is shown to approach around the March 12th time frame with varying results depending on the extended range model runs - all in all - it is pointless to project that far out given the lack of consistency.   

Looks like a big severe weather event will be in the wings for people from the Eastern Southern Plains though into parts of the Southeast States (at least those areas) but what affects will occur most anywhere, especially Florida, will remain unsaid.

The only thing that looks most certain is the lack of any cold air intrusions whatsoever for quite some time.