TODAY: Frontal boundary near Florida/Georgia border accompanied aloft by at least one or two upper level disturbances to past from west to east during the day, the first of which is already in progress prior to sunrise over the northern Gulf near the Panhandle.
High clouds could continue to spread across the state with best heating to occur South to South Central or perhaps to "Dead Central". Cold temperatures aloft coupled with respectable bulk shear throughout in the upper-mid levels could sustain some taller activity with accompanying strong wind gusts.
However....
No clear cut way in which how things will evolve today though HRRR radar simulation implies some 'pre-main show' activity might actually be the Real Show, which would be South Central to South Florida. Regardless..the best chance of stronger winds might well be with whenever the first activity crosses any given area as after any first round of rain (in whatever form that might take) would stabilize the lowest levels of the atmosphere in and around that rainfall. Either way..timing appears to be anytime over Eastern Half from 1pm onward (if not a bit sooner) and earlier North and West.
Strong storms possible with gusts toward 50 mph. Latest Mesoscale Parameter page on the Storm Prediction Center's Website is showing even severe conditions possible out in the Gulf (a supercell thunderstorm was visible on Tampa's radar very early this morning) but not sure those parameters will manage to work onto and over the peninsula itself.
It's worth 'noting' that the early A.M. Global Forecasting System (GFS) model run is not showing all that much activity today at all in regard to large rainfall totals, but that might be accounted for by fast moving activity.
On the other hand, if stronger activity erupts toward the West coast first anvil debris might sufficiently cut down/ limit low level instability. No two models are in agreement, therefore SPC has much of the South Half of the state in a 'marginal risk' (and for other specific meteorological reasons as well).
Either way, rain chances today (and much needed at that) are in the cards through sunset in various forms from very light to strong storms (mainly as shown in the image below) ; it would be helpful to get a good dousing as brush fire season is at hand.
SUNDAY: CELESTIAL SPRING ARRIVES - GLORY BE!!
March Equinox in Cocoa Beach, Florida, USA is on
Sunday, March 20, 2016 at 12:30 AM EDT
Spring along the East Coast of U.S. begins just after midnight tonight.
Chance of cloud cover and even some light rain could persist from time to time south of I4 or even I10 through early afternoon with thunder possible parts of South Central and South as cold front progresses down the state with clearing later in the day into the overnight.
MONDAY - First FULL Day of spring: to be greeted with a cold NW wind gusting to over 25 mph with cleared skies and lows in the mid-upper 40Fs (warmer far South) coldest North and North Central Interiors. Highs in the lower to maybe mid 60Fs with breezy conditions continuing but dying off late in the day into the overnight.
TUESDAY: Though cool in the morning not nearly as cold as Monday with much less wind. Warmer by around 8 degrees in the afternoon as well as wind becomes more easterly and eventually southeasterly around 8-12 mph.
WEDNESDAY: "Cold shot' is history as southeast wind greets a much warmer East Coast morning with highs in the interior near 80F and mid to upper 70Fs along the east coast.
BEYOND To THURSDAY: Chance of Thunderstorm south of I-4 once again. Will watch for stronger activity. This day is the first since nearly last year that sufficient Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) is shown to be in place, and for the GFS model to show that this far out in advance over Florida (something which it seems to rarely do) it will be interesting to see if it is not underscoring just exactly how unstable it might actually be.
GOOD FRIDAY- EASTER: More rain/storms chances at play (possibly strong) but again just exactly how this will play out and the timing of said chances will remain unknown until closer to the actual dates and time.
GFS rainfall accumulations depicted over the period from Saturday through Monday have been up to 4" in some locations due to mainly heavy storms (not all day rains)...just as a hint of what might be coming down the pipe .
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