Showers / Thunder Today (Some Strong/Near Severe Possible 'Wednesday Time Frame")

May 5th - Cape Canaveral 2015

TODAY: Pattern change from past several days currently IN PROGRESS as we read this and will continue to be altered and be changing through Wednesday as high pressure that was over and near the Florida Peninsula is flattened toward the east and south into the Atlantic. The resultant southerly flow around the  periphery of its western bounds combined with an upper level trough to dig southward (on both U.S. Coasts) will result in increasing West to WNW flow aloft through Thursday. Another 'Omega Blocking' like pattern is developing going into the weekend over the entire U.S. which put the breaks on active weather most everywhere except during a brief interlude across the interior U.S. in several days from now.  In the interim...

Increasing  west to WNW  flow well aloft especially going into near sunset and beyond combined with increased southerly low level flow ( with moisture) should result in  a late afternoon 'sea breeze collision' type activities somewhere within 20 miles either side of the spine of the state. Prior to that time some showers will manifest along the westward progressing sea breezes in spotting fashion.

Upper level steering will then press either rain showers, light debris type rain with mainly cloud cover,  just plain old cloud cover, or even some thunder to the east coast from near Ormond or Daytona Beach as far south as North Brevard (possibly central) after dark. Overall the best chance of thunder though will be west of I-95 except further north into Central or Northern Volusia County. Other locations along the east coast might at least begin to become a bit cloudy prior to sunset either way.

TUESDAY: As expected per last blog post several days ago , this day and Wednesday appeared to be at that time the best storm chance days (with some activity possibly strong), and The SPC has upgraded the 'storm type' range to 'Marginal Conditions' for severe type storms on both days (for the time being at least) in their storm forecasts.

Latest NAM and GFS though show very little activity on Tuesday whatsoever which does look a bit suspect. If some strong storms can form though expect they would be very close to the east coast mainly southern Volusia County and southward toward West Palm, but this day will have to wait for more details after today is done.


WEDNESDAY: If Tuesday twere'nt bad enough, model guidance is all over the map this day with one version of the NAM advertising strong to severe storms as soon as mid-late morning Wednesday mainly Central to South Central Florida along a frontal boundary and ahead of it  while other models wait off until noon time with mainly a shield of cloud cover with light to moderate rain and some embedded thunder. The GFS has been consistent with a band of heavier rainfall totals across all of Central Florida this day, but again, each model is different. Strong storms this day looks iffy as suspect there might be too much precedent cloud cover with unidirectional winds through the column . But again, this day is worth watching anyway... for beyond Wednesday comes...

  ....... THURSDAY-SATURDAY MORNING: Much cooler weather most  notably in the post midnight to early morning hours. 

Morning lows down nearly 7-10F cooler than has been the case in the past week or so at least. Afternoons will still be warm but much drier. IN fact, no decent chance of rain fall might be in place until nearly not this weekend but the weekend after that (or beginning around the 12th of May)