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On This Day (June 26), 2014 Cocoa, Florida |
TODAY: Outside of a weak disturbance moving SSW 'apparently' toward East Central Florida earlier this morning and any effect it might (or will not have) near the Brevard Coast little has changed in the overall scheme of things other than some increased moisture. All guidance concurs for an increase in coverage today for many locations over the interior counties almost state wide. Looks like a day of what we would expect to see this time of year as opposed to days of rather meager coverage lately (granted, if one has been impacted by a storm it makes little difference to them).
MONDAY: Decreasing coverage as the overall wind fields aloft do not change significantly enough to make much of a difference but moisture availability does decrease.
TUESDAY - NEXT WEEKEND: The long -heralded break down of the pesky Senora Heat Ridge which manifested over two weeks ago over the Western U.S. and was compressed eastward (aloft) will finally see its end of days in regard to the influence it's had over Florida.
Several rounds of upper level troughs passing near and south of Canadian Border and across the Northeast states will :
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| June 26 , 2014 - Cape Canaveral |
(1.) result in that ridging to retreat back to where it belongs (out West !!) but also;
(2) break down the persistent Atlantic (Bermuda) high that has resulted in storm activity moving to the west side of the state or nearly not at all.
The Western Flank of the Atlantic Ridge axis will shift east of the state (in general) and 'sift' south as well...(which affects the lowest levels of the atmosphere) while the retrogression of the Senora Heat Ridge back West to where it belongs affects the upper levels in regard to steering and warmer air aloft.
The sum total of those two changes will be more toughing over the Eastern United States. Though not necessarily directly over the state - these changes in both regards will allow both sea breezes to not only work their magic in regard to storm activity but also point the mid-upper level winds toward the Florida East Coast (especially north of West Palm Beach - Ft Pierce areas).
Not a guarantee all locations will 'then see rainfall' as a result, as the steering still will be rather weak.
Thus, from near Indian River County and north to JAX beginning Tuesday into next weekend (at least) some of the rainfall thirsty regions of Southern Volusia south through Indian River or even Martin / St. Lucie (at times) at the immediate coasts will finally get a chance to see some rainfall / thunderstorms.
Summer time like thunderstorm pattern Florida is 'famous' for finally arrives !
Side bar: This near exact same pattern evolved last year in regard to the Ridges and their locations which left much of the East Coast without storm activity as well until the end of June. Once the pattern changed the stage was set for a large portion of the summer patterns to run its course outside of any 'would be' tropical influences.
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