Large Rainfall Totals Possible Into Thursday - Watching Tropics Early September

Sunday Morning - Cocoa Beach Pier

TODAY: Invest 99L  near the Florida Straits appears to be a rather large area of 'interest' though a small circulation area seems to be evident on visible satellite animations near the Keys but the better chance of there being a circulation appears to be near the North Coast of Cuba. The area appears to be moving west and all model guidance suggests a slow drift toward the WNW-NW and eventually North in the next 24-60 hours. How far west it goes is one question before beginning a turn as well as what happens once it does.  Any wind threat appears to be minimal with the bigger 'interest' as far as today's post goes being rainfall totals. Not to say things could change but won't press the envelope in that direction today.

There remains a rather high degree of uncertainty what exactly will transpire in the next four days though there are suggestions that not one but two areas of 'circulation' may develop but exactly where is the big stickler, even for where any heavier rainfall totals might occur -- hence, will stick with a broad brush general trend on the sensible weather that might be on the table into mid-week .
Although showers are again possible during the day almost anywhere, no direct affects from the system will be experienced other than for far South Florida and Keys. Showers possible east coast almost anywhere during the day into this evening.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Trend is for convergence along the far SE Coast working north with time perhaps Monday into Mid-Day Tuesday working into Brevard County. Exactly when that 'might' occur though is not certain .

 The system could be well WSW of the peninsula and still have indirect affects on the state but one thing is certain, high precipitable water values in excess of 2.00" will be in place for several days (at least Wednesday and maybe into Thursday). 

The focus though unless the storm area becomes   wrapped up will not necessarily be around any 'center per-se'..as a broader mid level circulation might end up being the real culprit for heavier rainfall totals combined with vorticity lobes (spin energy) that rotate within the large area of mid-level low pressure.

 Both the GFS and NAM show rainfall totals between 2-4" along the east coast coming into mid-week from Miami as far north as Southern Volusia County and into the interior as well as some areas along the west coast. 

IF a center truly becomes more organized then a POTENTIAL land fall near the Big Bend area near Cedar Key or north of there is always possible. 

Wouldn't be surprise though to see another AOI (Area of Interest) develop SE of the South Carolina Coast or even East of JAX. Just to complicated a situation to say for certain.

Circulation appears near Keys but the overall AOI is much larger.
POSSIBLE Future motion shown with a landfall anywhere from North of Tampa to the Panhandle but that is more of a question that a statement

WEDNESDAY: Discrepancies obviously continue but decent rain chances do not seem to be questionable at this stage. At some point anywhere along the line from Mid-Day Tuesday (perhaps) into Wednesday there is the remote chance of bursts of gusty winds accompanying some shower activities (squally like weather) and should the area become more organized we might be hearing about the chance of 'land falling waterspouts' though at this stage that chance looks rather remote. 

The Latest NAM (in the writer's opinion) is up to playing the extreme edge game as it historically does - so to speak  - suggesting that waterspouts along the east coast would be entirely possibly late Monday and especially Tuesday but not buying it at this stage.

Will note that the CFSV2 shows no surface development but for an inverted trough to stretch NE to SW across the state for some time. That was the solution the GFS was showing even a week ago and it has gone back to that solution several times since then. In short, there is no 'steadfast guarantee' that Invest 99L will ever develop into a 'closed well formed system' though given the current satellite animations that might be questionable.

TOWARD NEXT WEEKEND: The system 'should' have cleared out toward the NE of Florida (we'll just have to see about that) with rainfall chances greatly diminished most areas, but for the chance a trail of deep moisture lagging behind the system, but where - if so - cannot be determined at this stage.

 INTO FIRST WEEK SEPTEMBER: GFS   and ECMWF and another model all show a much more potent storm approaching the Southeast United States. Granted, there is no area of interest yet to be seen out there, regardless, that  three are showing what looks like could amount to a 'most definite hurricane' which might impact anywhere along the U.S. East coast from Florida to the Carolina's does bear for leaning an ear out for it after we are cleared of Invest 99L which may end up being named yet still.

Isolated Thunder - 'Stronger' Thunder Possible Later Today (Heads Up Next Week ?)

Great Blue Heron by Coral Seas , Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Chance of showers with some thunder possible mainly south and east of I-4, with best chances south of line from Melbourne but then and into the interior south mainly near to west of I95 and near to south of SR528  (Osceola County?) later today.

Morning KSC sounding came in rather moist with most moisture concentrated below 10,000 ft and temperatures aloft running 1-3C cooler than recent days . Thus, some stronger downdraft wind gusts possible late day if the atmosphere hasn't been scoured out or worked over after a full day of sunshine. Will have to wait it out to see how it all unfolds.

MONDAY: Some drying out in the atmosphere is  forecast Central with most moisture North Florida and far South. The weak tail end of a frontal boundary will be approaching to make a bit of a 'back door' passage early Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Tail- ender, back door type 'wind shift front' to cross Central between 5AM - 9AM. Northeast onshore flow though light will follow with little chances of rain in many areas but Southern  and far Northern parts of the state. Northeasterly flow might begin to increase later into Wednesday for 24-36 hours but nothing unusual.

WEDNESDAY- SATURDAY: Will watch for periods of increased atmospheric moisture to reach the state from time to time from the east. So far the first pocket appears might reach East Central before sunrise from around the Cape south toward Ft Pierce. Other days show much less moisture and other days more so timing of which days exactly early day ocean showers will be possible cannot be ascertained that far out in time at this point. Otherwise, most thunder later in the day would be well inland toward the West Coast.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: There is a remote chance that tropical activities might be worth watching for come Sunday into next week. The latest Coupled Forecast System (CFSV2) shows a tropical storm or depression possibly crossing Central Florida from east to west while the GFS has a system approaching far SE Florida only to curve north then northeast at the last minute sometime late next week. 


If either of these is even close to correct is not really possible to determine this far out, for it was only two days ago the GFS nearly showed a hurricane near the state as did the other model and  no sooner did that 'potential'  appear di it but disappear  completely one model run later .

The point being, tropical storm season is clearly making a showing and will continue to allude forecasters   from time to time well into September if not October as well. 

Similar To Yesterday With Some Thunder 'Mainly' East Side (Strong South)

Soaking Up Sunday Morning For All It's Worth

TODAY: Similar pattern overall in regard to where it is mostly likely to thunder and/or rain and when though local synoptic scale pattern is a bit different.

Latest surface analysis and satellite/radar animations clearly show a surface  - to up through at least 5000 ft - low west of Jacksonville rotating nearly in place. Surface winds in response are from the northerly component immediately to the west of the low center while across Central they are mainly SW -SSW and breezy especially portions of Central Florida. Further toward far South Florida there is little in the SWs to speak of if not already an east coast sea breeze.

Morning sounding showed though somewhat drier air across South Florida though the temperatures aloft strangely came in much cooler than expected. This coupled with greater instability and better chance of Lake and Sea Breeze mergers might herald a better chance for Stronger Thunder later today.

Further north SW winds appear will  prevent the east coast sea breeze from forming north of Ft Pierce (in general). Best chance for showers 'per se' but also some thunder along the east coast later today though that is not to say that some thunder could not occur any where mainly south or near of the I-4.  Winds quite breezy in the immediate vicinity of rains : thunder or no thunder.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: For now will take it on the daily basis so not going to get into finer details today. All in all it still appears that perhaps either Monday or Tuesday might be a bit of an 'early onset' type of day with more areas at least receiving measurable rainfall but again not all guidance is in agreement . Over all though, the sea breeze might not be able to kick in once again along East Central on Monday.  Better chances of thunder then would be Tuesday (other than some 'rumbles') and/or Wednesday.  

Steering from the SW begins to decrease  even more notably by Wednesday so that in toward the weekend most of the rains will occur away from the immediate coasts. Eventually an overall more easterly flow is seen to appear around late week into next weekend leaving the coasts dry other than perhaps the onset of some early day coastal showers.

Mid-Afternoon to Early Evening Showers / Some Storms

Cozy Canaveral Condo Cumulonimbus  !

TODAY: (Saturday)  As noted in previous post pattern change had been under way and is now in place. Variations in mid-level temperatures, distribution of moisture availability throughout 'the column', rather poor mid-upper level lapse rates, and not all the best low level convergence for upward forcing due to  (a) periods of cloud cover at times of peak heating , and (b) lack of better meeting of sea breeze convergence even on east coast as gradient winds aloft increase a bit means : mostly showers with some thunder possible . 

Stronger activity would result however in larger rainfall totals due to slower storm motions for those locales that actually do see some rain today. 

Better chance for storms appears as of 11AM to be Central to Eastern portions near to south of I-4. As can be seen below in the satellite image a large cluster of storms and showers and associated cloud cover is expanding its veil across some areas and as a result closing the 'window of opportunity' for better heating in some areas. 

The high clouds over the Central areas are dropping south just in time for the high noon period it at least seems. The region south of I-4 looks like the area to have the better instability and low level convergence along the sea breeze. Though thunder could happen other areas (even rain showers) .

Best chance of any storms near East Central toward SE Interior toward the coast appears to be well into the mid-afternoon with other areas mainly near SW having the earlier start. This activity would then propagate both north and east with time if cloud coverage allows. Not sure guidance isn't a bit over done for today in rain coverage. High clouds play havoc with model guidance at time.

SUNDAY -TUESDAY: Increasing SW Flow 'just above the deck' might prevent sea breeze onset almost entirely. If too much cloud cover is also at play rain chances might be greatly reduced. Otherwise both SUNDAY AND MONDAY we might start to see more chance of mid-upper level energy (vorticity lobes) crossing the areas across the day which would be the prime impetus for rain fall.  
The NAM was showing 'Sunday' to be a rather 'big day' in the rainfall category but has since made a sift to either Monday or Tuesday (if either day actually evolves as the NAM has been showing it would be rather surprising as it tends to outdo itself all too often while other days it is utterly blind to rainfall chances) so time will tell. All in all though it will be greater energy aloft more so than lapse rates or Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) that seems will be the core trigger Sunday-Monday-Tuesday.

BEYOND: Going into Wednesday -Friday the pattern begins to 'back off' a bit with less SW steering. See breezes will begin to play into the equation with continued chances of storms mainly away from the coasts but again, some further model agreement as to when we will lose this still yet fully evolved pattern is not certain. All in all, Thursday and Friday still look like better chances for rain than maybe even today, but for different reasons.

Pattern Change at Last! - - Ante Upped for East Coast Rain Chances Into Next Week

"Morning Stroll"

OVERVIEW (SYNOPSIS): Not much deviation from previous blog post a few days ago in regard to 'Thursday into Early Next Week". Slowly but surely the Atlantic Ridge axis is no longer not only going to be the dominate feature north of Florida resulting in east to west storm steering, but it has mostly either pulled off to the east entirely to be of little affect or dropped to the latitude of Lake Okeechobee depending on which level of the atmosphere one is looking at.

The Curse of the "Warm-Dry Spell" is coming to it's demise today into Saturday  As high pressure aloft circulating clockwise from the Lower Plains states region (give or take ) has weakened on its eastern fringes enough so that within the weakness region across Florida and parts of the Deep South weak low pressure is forecast to form around the 5000 -10,000 foot level over Georgia to become more organized and drop south across the Panhandle and eventually even into the far NE Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

 What this means for most of Florida (namely north of generally West Palm Beach) is that a SW to NE steering pattern (albeit rather weak) will be taking shape through the weekend.

Though daily variations in atmospheric  moisture availability will be problematic at times (namely South of Lake Okeechobee and at times east of a line running from near Brevard County SW toward Ft Myers) for the most part during the next 5-6 days it looks like there will be several opportunities for areas east of I-95 (even at times east of US1) to see some long awaited rainfall.


TODAY: Though steering remains light it will be from a westerly component. East coast sea breeze should hold off a bit today and with onset of it in presence of PWAT (Precipitable water) at 2.00" + and the absence  of early day cloud cover  could result in showers near if not even over the east coast areas. 

Other activity could form along the west coast sea breeze and outflow from that activity should ignite more showers/storms toward I75 going into mid afternoon. Overall state coverage as a result will be higher today though storm strength does not appear will be an issue apart from the usual lightning threats at times.
Image below is a 'general depiction' as usual. Not all areas will see rain today and somewhere down toward interior SW Florida could see a thunderstorm today as well (though not shown here).

BEYOND: Appears that some days heading into the weekend there is a chance the east coast sea breeze might even be held off almost altogether at times especially from Brevard County and north but which days if any (especially Friday - Saturday) is hard to determine at this point. Locations where east coast sea breeze is held off entirely (now that steering works in favor of the east coast) could actually be a disservice once again negating the needed low level convergence the sea breezes provide to see off showers and storms despite ample moisture availability...regardless... 

.... several "early onset' days appear to be at hand with near sunrise if not pre-sunrise activities beginning along the Gulf Coast north of Brooksville and especially toward Cedar Key and the Big Bend. This area might see some 'grand totals' over the next 5-6 days well in excess of 3-4" if models hold true.  

Early onset days resulting in late morning OFBs (outflow boundaries) heading east and south could set off additional activity going into early afternoon which would 'march' eastward toward the interior and even the east coast, perhaps as early as late morning to early afternoon on some days. 

One thing that will be down-player to the overall scheme is a TUTT low to approach the state toward the weekend from the Bahamas region. This might act as a drying out mechanism for parts of south and Central Florida .

As a result, no guarantees on which days this might play havoc on the forecast for now, but a few 'less wet days' are possible especially south of I-4. Overall over the next 6 days the region north of line from near Sarasota toward Melbourne might have the highest rainfall totals, especially along the Gulf Coast north of Brooksville with a secondary area from near Titusville and north along the east coast. High temperatures in the afternoon will be held down a few degrees as well as a result of increased cloud coverage during the normally warmest times of day.

Chance of East-side Rain 'Ticks-up" - Watching Tropics Today / Late Next Week

Small Thunderstorm West of Melbourne, FL Sunday Afternoon Viewed from Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Not much change from yesterday although moisture appears to be more ample per guidance than was otherwise suggested would be today. The overall 'scheme-of-things' remains unchanged  for the most part in regard to where the better rain chances will once again be  with the dry locations remaining dry.  The anomaly later today might be for showers and some thunder to impact the southeast coast into the Northern Keys after 9pm through midnight south of Ft. Pierce or West Palm Beach area.

TUESDAY: Ridge axis across Central to lift to North Florida leaving again dry locations dry (e.g. far east Central specifically). 

WEDNESDAY: Again, though no two days exactly alike with varying amounts of moisture available it appears a trough will being to lower heights along the eastern seaboard eventually causing the low level Atlantic Ridge axis to shift toward South Central or even to retreat further east with less direct influence on the state -- even to possibly south of Lake Okeechobee for a day or two into the weekend. If so..

THURSDAY INTO MONDAY NEXT WEEK: Better chance of rain and thunderstorms close to the east coast early afternoon some days toward mid-evening.  Even so, more cloud cover on certain days will put a dent in the heat for the over night hours by the  mere presence of debris clouds in those areas that have not only not seen rain..by nary much more than a few clouds from time to time. The past two runs of the GFS are showing this to be the case as does the CVS-V2.

TROPICS:  It looks like a named tropical storm will be forthcoming somewhere in the West Central Caribbean south of the Dominican Republic (and moving west ) possibly later today with no threat to Florida. Otherwise, both the GFS and CVS-V2 show the chance that an even better defined system might traverse along a similar course to enter the southeast Gulf of Mexico well out after Day 10. Whether the course of motion of 'said yet to exist system' is reliable is well too far out  to bother being of concern (if it even does manifest), though the time draws nigh for the tropics to 'heat up' -- the ocean temps certainly have.  
In any case, the hints are that it might be worth watching for come the August 10th time frame and beyond.