Isolated Thunder - 'Stronger' Thunder Possible Later Today (Heads Up Next Week ?)

Great Blue Heron by Coral Seas , Cape Canaveral, Florida

TODAY: Chance of showers with some thunder possible mainly south and east of I-4, with best chances south of line from Melbourne but then and into the interior south mainly near to west of I95 and near to south of SR528  (Osceola County?) later today.

Morning KSC sounding came in rather moist with most moisture concentrated below 10,000 ft and temperatures aloft running 1-3C cooler than recent days . Thus, some stronger downdraft wind gusts possible late day if the atmosphere hasn't been scoured out or worked over after a full day of sunshine. Will have to wait it out to see how it all unfolds.

MONDAY: Some drying out in the atmosphere is  forecast Central with most moisture North Florida and far South. The weak tail end of a frontal boundary will be approaching to make a bit of a 'back door' passage early Tuesday.

TUESDAY: Tail- ender, back door type 'wind shift front' to cross Central between 5AM - 9AM. Northeast onshore flow though light will follow with little chances of rain in many areas but Southern  and far Northern parts of the state. Northeasterly flow might begin to increase later into Wednesday for 24-36 hours but nothing unusual.

WEDNESDAY- SATURDAY: Will watch for periods of increased atmospheric moisture to reach the state from time to time from the east. So far the first pocket appears might reach East Central before sunrise from around the Cape south toward Ft Pierce. Other days show much less moisture and other days more so timing of which days exactly early day ocean showers will be possible cannot be ascertained that far out in time at this point. Otherwise, most thunder later in the day would be well inland toward the West Coast.

SUNDAY-BEYOND: There is a remote chance that tropical activities might be worth watching for come Sunday into next week. The latest Coupled Forecast System (CFSV2) shows a tropical storm or depression possibly crossing Central Florida from east to west while the GFS has a system approaching far SE Florida only to curve north then northeast at the last minute sometime late next week. 


If either of these is even close to correct is not really possible to determine this far out, for it was only two days ago the GFS nearly showed a hurricane near the state as did the other model and  no sooner did that 'potential'  appear di it but disappear  completely one model run later .

The point being, tropical storm season is clearly making a showing and will continue to allude forecasters   from time to time well into September if not October as well.