Cold, Wet Sunday - Extended Stay through Wednesday ...Storms in February?

Last year Near This Date

TODAY: Rather cool with decreasing sun and increasing clouds. Abundant cloud cover harvested over the Gulf in association with an upper level disturbance to graze across Florida early Sunday through late afternoon .  Temperatures rather cool though some sunny breaks always possible now and then through sunset to add a step to the day and some warmth, but not in all areas. South to Central will fair the best for today in regard to sun and warmer.

OVERNIGHT-SUNDAY:  Guidance very consistent for several days now on a chance of rain with cold air aloft to drag some of that down to the surface. Latest NAM and not quite so much the GFS models show highs in the low end of the mid 50Fs possibly cooler toward the 48F-50F range where cloud cover and/or rain might fall. 

Rain will generally work from west to east reaching east locations of North Central and Central sometime after 2AM - 5AM. Rain chances and or cloud cover continues until early afternoon Central, and later down to South Florida. Highs again well below climatological norms. Guessing for Central it will end from west to east from late morning and moving off the east coast around the 1PM time frame though clouds might persist until dark. South Florida the rain will be in place possibly until dark-time.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind to pick up a bit from the NW by Monday  but and begin to decrease into Tuesday. So far, appears skies not an issue but watching for high cirrus clouds to be problematic. So will see on that one. Morning lows not showing anything too unusual (mainly mid-upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs immediate east coast and south); it's the afternoon highs that stay well below par for the course, barely reaching 60F on Monday and lower to mid 60Fs Tuesday and Wednesday.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Back to normal, pleasant and continued dry with light wind.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Next weekend looks to be everything this weekend won't be.

BEYOND: Entering into February, the leaves begin to turn in due time.  GFS off and on and more so the CFSV2 long range climate model is showing 1, 2, now 3 'potential 'weather events' spaced from 7 -10 days apart from each other during the month. However, there is no consistency in the signal thus far, and will change on a daily basis. Whether more severe weather events will be on the way cannot be stated with any certainty; however, February has been known historically to be a big month for severe weather in Florida going into Mid- March (though not every year obviously).

All in all, looks like this upcoming 'cold weather outbreak' will be our true real taste of winter's extended stay...out much beyond mid February though it can get cold again, and does...the cold events begin to get shorter in length, and more spaced apart.

Enhanced Risk of Severe Potential Remains Real Late Sunday

Uprooted Tree Remains Post-Matthew from October - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Warmer and a bit muggier today as advertised with developing S-SW wind this afternoon. High in the lower 80Fs mostly though some areas might see a mid-80F. Any rain/storms would remain north of I-4. 

Meanwhile. the first severe weather threat period moves in across the Panhandle region mainly from Tallahassee and west. A few tornado warnings are already on the horn further west .

Radar simulations from the HRRR model  indicate the chance for a high end tornado near Pensacola toward Panama City area of possible EF3 strength. (that  is only a forecast, but the 'threat' is real), but that is from only one run (which is done hourly) from one short term model. On the other hand, other guidance is not nearly as menacing. Regardless, an enhanced severe threat remains with the activity projected to impact that area late morning hours toward noon time.

SUNDAY: Nice start to the day with increasing SW. The next episode of severe enters the picture first again toward the Panhandle sometime late morning, possibly a bit further east than round one, which then continues to press east and expand southward along what appears would be a bit of a broken, QLCS squall line.

As being noted in varying models, timing remains an issue as to when North Central to Central Direct will be impacted. There appears to be agreement though, that some kind of a squall line type formation will develop early to mid afternoon from near JAX SSW to west of Tampa which will then strengthen and expand southward into near sunset; however, not all focus should be on the line if it were to develop. 

Some guidance also indicates discrete , isolated storm cells forming acorss 'anywhere' Central Florida after 4pm toward dark and moving off the east coast. Though small and quick moving if so, such activity in the given situation can produce a quick tornado and//or strong wind gusts.

As anticipated a low level jet coupled with a 500mb (as opposed to 300mb) jet streak well aloft (500mb is lower in the atmosphere) along with a little bit of directional shear will result in bulk shear (speed shear plus directional shear) which would abet in resultant rapid updraft formation. There will be sufficient instability from day time heating coupled with dewpoints in the upper 60Fs (moisture) to add to the mix. These factors along with low level helicity values in the 200/300 m2/sec2, which is like a cork screwing horizontal wind field racing parallel to the ground will lay down the framework for the Tornado Threat Welcome Mat  ....   as has not been seen in this area for quite a while in regard to potentiality. 

Given the important relevance of this upcoming 'situation' have refrained from making a personal map of where activity might occur and left it up to what is readily available. "IF" I had made a note it 'will mention' that just because areas south of the red hatched (see below) are not in there, the risk for tornado threat remains all the way down the state. Those areas are almost guaranteed any mode of weather will occur during the overnight hours, especially south of Vero Beach.

The Storm Prediction Center has place all of North Central in a 

HATCHED ENHANCED RISK which means a 10% greater risk

 for a significant severe weather event anywhere within 25 NM 

of any given point.

 Enhanced includes EF2 (or higher) tornado strength, straight line winds of 74 mph or greater, or large hail. The greatest threat (in the bloggers opinion only) appears would be wind as noted in previous post up to almost 90MPH , though said wind would be extremely isolated, and/or a tornado. 

Some models (the ones that include this parameter) show 'updraft helicity swats  ' which indicate a rotating updraft (of supercell thunderstorm nature). 
Will not include in the post as those are only a general indication and change , sometimes significantly, in both intensity of the activity as well as location from run to run.

As such, this means that the 4KM - NAM model , for instance, has consistently indicated a few 'particularly nasty storms' based on that parameter alone from near Orlando/Canaveral in general and further north, with the strongest activity north of a line from Brooksville toward Ormond Beach. 

Threat period from far North Central southward toward the Vero Beach area best guess runs from around 3PM (north) to after 10PM (Vero Beach). Some areas as inferred earlier might see activity more than once if activity begins to erupt ahead of the prefrontal broken line, which would be prior to dark. Suspect that the actual organized area, for example, will reach a line from near Titusville toward Sarasota between 8:30pm - 10:00pm but it could be sooner. Other pre-line activity would be prior to or even during sunset time frame.

This does look more now like a 'live coverage' 

situation for local TV Channel networks.

BEYOND: Monday will be breezy with westerly wind, some cloud cover and cooler with the coldest air to arrive Tuesday through Wednesday morning as wind begins to decrease.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Rapid turn around Wednesday. Very cool in the morning (upper 40Fs inland to lower-mid 50Fs near coast) with a southerly flow develop late morning , sending highs into the upper 70Fs to near 80F in the afternoon as the next front approaches.

FROM FRIDAY ONWARD: The GFS and the CFSV2 are trending on more of a prolonged cool down period, as in, " WINTER PHASE II  ". 

 Not only cooler, but a few episodes of 'much cooler'. 

For just how long it will go on is questionable and the entire period (into mid-February) would not be cool to cold constantly. Regardless, winter isn't over yet.  The GFS has hinted on a few runs of near freezing to freezing temperatures south of Orlando but mostly indicates mid-upper 30F in the colder areas if such a situation were to develop. This is all well out of range of foreast accuracy anyway, only to say, 'don't be surprised' if local forecasts begin to allude to more chilly weather on tap. 

Severe Weather Threat Increased for Sunday/Sunday Night

Sunrise Wednesday Morning - (Sunset Image at End of Post For Same Day)

TODAY-SATURDAY: Continued above normal temperatures with light wind today through Friday.

By Friday wind becomes a bit more Southerly, continued warm

By Saturday afternoon things now become sketchy . Chances of shower/storms (if possible) appears would be restricted to north of I-4. Elsewhere, increasing high clouds.

SUNDAY: Big Day of Questions: Latest GFS model overnight run (and continuity from previous post) continues to advertise the risk of a squall line moving across the state.

The  factors most contributing to the risk would be strong mid-upper level winds of 90Kts (mainly north half of state), with a 500mb 'jet' of near 90knts  with up to 30kts of bulk shear contribuiting even in the lowest 2000 ft from surface to 925mb, with higher amounts of shear up through the column. 

Consider, that when we have thunderstorms, sometimes strong in the summer, there is normal NO shear at all.

Additionally, at least early on, there would be Convective Available Potential Energy between 800-1200 J/kg2 (though the GFS might be underscoring this value). Helicity values in the 200m2/s2 don't hurt, but are not particularly of great concern , but could contribute to brief tornadic spin ups (that rather weak as far as tornadoes are concerned)

Factors that would prevent this 'possible event' from reaching a solid MDT RISK DAY is poor mid-level lapse rates and directional wind shear values mostly having passed east of the state before other factors that do contribute come together, mainly after dark Sunday evening.

As a result, and given that there is still a few more days to monitor and many more model runs to monitor as Sunday draws closer, this situation does bear close, scrutinous monitoring.

As seen below, for purposes only, the highest risk for the strongest Category of severe levels in the winds mostly appears would be All of North Central to northern parts of South Central Florida.

Further south , however, has some other factors which 'could have' brought that region into greater threat but will leave well enough alone. The Storm Prediction Center has already placed all of North Central in a 'Substantial Severe" watching mode. 

Thus, Sunday might evolve into being a MODERATE RISK DAY. Rare for Florida.
Greatest threat appears to be high end severe straight line winds, quick and difficult to warn for tornado spin ups , especially if this ends up being a QLCS SQUALL LINE, with broken line segments.

Expect that if nothing else changes, this will be one of those weather events where TV CHANNELS will be doing continuous LIVE COVERAGE. 

BEYOND: Breezy on Monday and cloudy. Cooler but not cold, possible light rain though clouds seem to be prevalent mode. Temperatures running near normal.

EVEN YET: As noted in previous post, if conditions line up this time for one SEVERE EVENT, the chance that more could follow is always a potential. 

The Latest GFS does show not only one but TWO possible events up to the first week of February. The latest of all might be a humdinger but given how far out in time that is, and that it was only of the latest run - there is no continuity so would discard ..and revisit in about a week.

YET EVEN STILL: GFS continues to show a big but short lived 'COLD EVENT" - though the model does seem to over exaggerate cold events beyond Day 7, so will disregard. Point being, not time to put away the mitts, scarves, and snow shovels.

Sunset Wednesday Evening

Warmer Yet Still To Saturday - Severe Sunday Night?

Start of a New Work Week - Sunrise Cape Canaveral

TODAY-SATURDAY: More of the same, more or less, with an above normal temperature regime with an increasingly decreasing chance of shallow, low topped ocean showers near the coast during the overnight to early morning hours as wind becomes progressively southerly come Friday into Saturday. Though, up until that time, a brief sprinkle is possible -- that chance will wane.

Warmest afternoon temperatures inland away from the cooling affect of the near shore waters, with highs in the upper 70Fs to just near 80F or so, while inland highs will reach the lower 80Fs to lower range of mid-80Fs.

BY FRIDAY, even the east coast will begin to get in on the warmer afternoons as well with comfortably cool mornings with a SSW-SW wind developing around this time frame.

SATURDAY: The latest GFS model has been 'Implying" (in varying degrees with each 6 hour run) that there will be the potential for a squall line to form along a pre-frontal trough ahead of a cold front moving from west to east across the Gulf of Mexico, with the better chance of any affected area being near to north of I-4. 

On the other hand, the latest run implies that risk could cover the length of the peninsula.

SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Given the POTENTIAL (which as of this time is based only on the latest model run and will likely change around with time)  will at least mention the chance of a Quasi-linear Convective System (QLCS) to cross the state beginning after sunset Sunday night to pass to the east coast sometime after 2-3AM  Monday  morning. 

Though factors/timing are not lining up which would maximize strength, namely in the wind fields and instability (which will be greatly limited ), might expect that there might be more than is being implied. Overall, as being an overnight situation based on current timing , bulk shear in the mid levels might be being 'under estimated' in the model which would compensate for lack of more instability.

Either way, given the latest , might be seeing a Severe Thunderstorm watch, if not Tornado watch issued for parts or all of the state Late Sunday afternoon into Sunday night (first panhandle/north Florida) then further south - though there's still plenty of monitoring time to see what evolves. 

PRIOR to that last model run, thinking (on this end) was for a good chance of rain accompanied with some gusty wind and maybe severe in the panhandle region through the Big Bend (only).  


TUESDAY ON: Regardless, post frontal passage shows west wind for a good two days to follow with temperatures near to just below 'normal'. Not real cold, just cool , ranging through the 50s/60Fs to near 70F for lows / highs respectively.

BEYOND YET STILL: Winter isn't over yet. We could still see some colder spells of several consecutive days as the GFS model and the CFSV2 models are implying, even out to mid-February.  Will also watch for yet another severe potential (if this upcoming situation evolves into one). Such circumstances tend to come in twos or threes spread out from 7-10 days apart from each other, though this year is not an El Nino year which is when that kind of set up might evolve in greater likelihood.

Increase Clouds, Rain. Storm Chances : Brrr-acious Saturday Thru Monday Morning

The "Observation" Tower Reflects the Calm Nature of Friday Morning - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Gorgeous start to the day but changes   in the making . are on the way to the Northern and Central Peninsula as we speak / read. A simple glance at radar and satellite imagery reveals that things are not quite what they might seem to be and will be on the down-swing going into this evening. 

A Cold front has already cut through the far Western Panhandle with grievous low level cloud cover and rain (even some sleet) occurring behind the boundary back in the cold air.  

The boundary will progress to a line per the GFS/and 4KM-NAM models to near South Tampa Bay to near Canaveral by around 1:30PM Saturday. (Noting that the North American Model (NAM) is considerably slower with the surface boundary's passage and has been consistently so in the past several runs, but for now will discount it).  

Meanwhile, continued warmer than 'normal' today ahead of the boundary with SW wind and highs in the lower 80Fs mainly south of and near I-4 . Increasing cloud cover with some showers and possibly thunder storms of strong to near severe levels mainly from near Cedar Key south toward Brooksville with a secondary area being watched for the near Sarasota toward Punta Gorda region  much later today toward evening (though that is a very low threshold risk for them being watched for at time of writing). 

 Otherwise, am expecting there is a chance of a 
"No Watch -but Warnings Possible" situation  

No Watch issuance for severe as coverage looks like it would be too isolated and factors are not lining up for all that much of a likelihood as well despite that there are several factors at play for severe  - they just are not adding up together to occur all at the same time.  

Either way, chance of it becoming breezier after dark with the first hints of rain fall not to occur Central (Interior) and Eastern Coastal areas until well after dark. Anytime after the 10PM time from for isolated activity well ahead of the boundary across all of Central but there is a chance nothing will occur in that time frame. 

The better chances more directly related to the front after midnight going into the sunrise time frame for  areas north of Ft Pierce to Punta Gorda line.

Cloud cover  and light to a few spots of moderate rain with a chance of embedded shear induced rotation where pockets of vertical uplift is concentrated could result in some lightning  and 'small' (non-severe) sized hail , with the chance of stronger wind gusts in (and in the vicinity of) even heavier isolated rain storms .

 Any activity beyond 'light rain' (if even) will be very isolated and quite brief in the 'in and outta here' fashion. At time not expecting that a Weather Watch will be issued for the upcoming situation at hand, unless conditions shift and one would be justifiably warranted.

THE BIGGER STORY WILL BE THE 
COLDER/BLUSTERY CONDITIONS POST FROPA

Saturday Afternoon: Assuming the GFS guidance which has held steady for days is reasonably accurate and holds intact, the front will pass through Central Florida from North to South from around 10:30AM (Northern parts)  to 3:30PM (Southern Parts) followed by a deliberate and noticeable shift in wind direction with much colder temperatures chasing down behind it eager to swift in for the kill.

Highest temperatures of the day will occur Saturday across all of North Central and Central prior to 1PM as a result (contingent upon the actual time the front passes through any given location).

Chances for  small craft advisories willlikely  be issued with winds gusts to near 33+ MPH possible with temperatures falling into the mid-upper 50Fs and yet colder still mainly west of I-95 / North of I-4 into the evening and to Sunday morning. 

SUNDAY MORNING: Coldest readings to occur from near Brooksville to Ocala across to Ormond Beach and north with below freezing readings for over six hours possible all across the Panhandle and down toward the Ocala National Forest regions with 'cold' WCI (wind chill index) readings.

Secondary cold area from near Punta Gorda  northeast to across western parts of the Orlando area and northeastward toward Central Volusia County though probably above freezing of if any freezing, for a very short period of time.

Outside of those regions incrementally warmer the further east and south one goes.

Coastal Brevard and Southward might not get below 50F during the entire event, outside of some Upper 40S   North or Central Brevard  along the coast. West of I-95 or US1, different story. 

Brrracious! with the wind.  

ALL Day Sunday will be characterized with a NNW wind becoming more northerly with time with highs never cracking the big "6-0 F " .


SUNDAY NIGHT - MONDAY: Continued cold but again, northerly to becoming more  NNE wind with time should prevent the immediate Coast from falling below 50F once again. Wind becomes more NNE-NE to even ENE by day's end Monday and slowly decreases. So far, guidance implies increasing low level cloudiness as the wind veers to more easterly as well, meaning increasing low level pancake stratocumulus clouds with only a few cloud breaks possibly all day Monday and if it were possible some light patches of rain spits straight through to Tuesday morning and possibly the same that day as well.

VAST IMPROVEMENTS BEGIN on TUESDAY AFTERNOON (?) from east to west, with warming and wind shifting to more southerly by Wednesday with temperatures returning to normal and even a bit above  " 'so called' 'Normal'" by Thursday.

BEYOND: Other than perhaps a weak boundary pressing through, the GFS has been showing that this upcoming colder , blustery weather will not be followed by a repeat performance any time soon. 

At least not with in the next 10 days to follow. 

At ease,  soldiers .

Chance of Mainly Interior Thunder , Convective Type Showers Possible at Beaches

Late Last Week, Cocoa Beach Surfing

TODAY: As noted in previous past last Thursday, it appeared there might be the potential for 'thunder on Monday'. Consistency is everything, and despite some ups and downs on the prognosis the signal is coming yet still as of this morning for that chance as short range guidance 'suddenly' just jumped on board, so will hoist the flag for a chance of thunder mainly from the NW Corner of Lake Okeechobee North and East to Volusia County with a bulls eye running close to or just east of the Orlando Metro or toward Sanford, to Northern  Osceola County though not exclusively.

The answer will be known later in the afternoon depending upon how much of a direct onshore component the east coast sea breeze attains. The less from the east and more from the south it is, the closer toward I-95 is the thunderstorm chance. Temperatures aloft are cold and the best divergence aloft  (for evacuation of updrafts) has been showing up to occur from Brevard South toward Vero Beach, Therefore, will watch interior Osceola County mostly then north-northeastward with time. Activity could press to the beaches (possibly after dark)..but whether it will be thunder or not is a tough call as we will have lost heating of the day by then (assuming any can form).

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY: So far, today appears to be the better rain chance day. These days will be more characterized with continued warm to warmer as SW winds at the surface take hold. Chance of showers is greatly reduced but still watching Tuesday afternoon for the east coast (though nothing is showing up in guidance for that day). Regardless, well above 'normal' temperatures through Wednesday afternoon.

LATE WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Frontal boundary glides down to Central or South Central and begins to undergo frontolysis  (or dissipation of identity). Regardless, cooler air will be hence coming behind the boundary with  reinforcements toward Friday or Saturday. For now, will leave well enough alone and saw a cooler period in store for these days with light winds with some clouds.

Overall, the general trend is that  it will be warmer Tuesday and Wednesday which  appears to be the end of it for quite some time.

The period of the 7th and 8th might be much cooler yet more (akin to recent days), and after that there is a big divergence in consensus from model run to model run for the GFS.

Paddle Boarder Greets the Morning

NOTE: We are entering the coldest time of year now from the first week of January into the last week of the month, with cold times also possible later. Climatologically though, this is the coldest month overall baring unusual circumstances which is always possible.

We will also be entering a period after this week into March of the potential for severe weather (aka, tornadoes) if the right ingredients can pull together. Every year is different, and at time there have been hints in the longer range guidance that something might make an attempt, but so far nothing concrete has yet been shown for a severe weather event, even in the long range guess range.