Cold, Wet Sunday - Extended Stay through Wednesday ...Storms in February?

Last year Near This Date

TODAY: Rather cool with decreasing sun and increasing clouds. Abundant cloud cover harvested over the Gulf in association with an upper level disturbance to graze across Florida early Sunday through late afternoon .  Temperatures rather cool though some sunny breaks always possible now and then through sunset to add a step to the day and some warmth, but not in all areas. South to Central will fair the best for today in regard to sun and warmer.

OVERNIGHT-SUNDAY:  Guidance very consistent for several days now on a chance of rain with cold air aloft to drag some of that down to the surface. Latest NAM and not quite so much the GFS models show highs in the low end of the mid 50Fs possibly cooler toward the 48F-50F range where cloud cover and/or rain might fall. 

Rain will generally work from west to east reaching east locations of North Central and Central sometime after 2AM - 5AM. Rain chances and or cloud cover continues until early afternoon Central, and later down to South Florida. Highs again well below climatological norms. Guessing for Central it will end from west to east from late morning and moving off the east coast around the 1PM time frame though clouds might persist until dark. South Florida the rain will be in place possibly until dark-time.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Wind to pick up a bit from the NW by Monday  but and begin to decrease into Tuesday. So far, appears skies not an issue but watching for high cirrus clouds to be problematic. So will see on that one. Morning lows not showing anything too unusual (mainly mid-upper 40Fs to lower 50Fs immediate east coast and south); it's the afternoon highs that stay well below par for the course, barely reaching 60F on Monday and lower to mid 60Fs Tuesday and Wednesday.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Back to normal, pleasant and continued dry with light wind.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Next weekend looks to be everything this weekend won't be.

BEYOND: Entering into February, the leaves begin to turn in due time.  GFS off and on and more so the CFSV2 long range climate model is showing 1, 2, now 3 'potential 'weather events' spaced from 7 -10 days apart from each other during the month. However, there is no consistency in the signal thus far, and will change on a daily basis. Whether more severe weather events will be on the way cannot be stated with any certainty; however, February has been known historically to be a big month for severe weather in Florida going into Mid- March (though not every year obviously).

All in all, looks like this upcoming 'cold weather outbreak' will be our true real taste of winter's extended stay...out much beyond mid February though it can get cold again, and does...the cold events begin to get shorter in length, and more spaced apart.