Remote Chance of Strong Storm/Near Record Highs - Tuesday/Wednesday

A Particularly Peculiar Situation  (PPS) Over Cocoa Beach Pier Friday Morning

TODAY: Gradual air mass modification continues with light easterly winds and not much in clouds. All in all a nicer day than yesterday - less cool and more comfortable for the natives on the beach.

TUESDAY: As noted in previous post, wind was to become  more southeast Monday evening to south and eventually SSW into late morning on Tuesday. This outlook is still on track.  Appears the east coast sea breeze will make an attempt to develop and press inland, but if so will make little progress if any. Chance of low cloud cover and/or fog in the morning but will rapidly burn out into mid-morning in areas where it might be able to form.

The bigger issue is the potential for showers and/or even a thunderstorm (possibly strong) to occur mainly east of the Orlando longitude and closer toward I-95 and east somewhere from East-Central Volusia south toward Indian River County. For now will target in on Brevard County as reference region.
Convergence near the east coast coupled with good low level lapse rates (localized upward forcing) in the presence of rather cold air aloft could make for a storm akin to a 'stronger type-summer storm' siutation coupled with a little help from wind aloft. All in all, if the tell-tale signs being advertised by the NAM bear merit, could call for small hail and maybe winds gusts near 50mph. 

Overall, the situation might be one of those Port St John to far southern Volusia County situations for a stronger storm. On the other hand, the NAM has a preponderance to over-hype which has been implying this chance. The other option might be for a broader range of rain showers and larger area of potential general thunder. Either way...

WEDNESDAY: Less chance of rain this day with continued southwest wind. This is the day that for now appears might approach 'near record highs' for the date. I do not know what the record high is for the various locations of East Central, but if guidance implies an 83-84F, chances are it could be even warmer especially from near Vero Beach and north toward Titusville.

THURSDAY: The front that was thought to come through by early this day is now slated for after sunset. Thus, another warm day with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs wiith a west to WNW wind in the 10-15 mph range during mid-afternoon, especially south of I-4 . There is a chance of seeing some rain immediately either during or after frontal passage late Thursday toward evening along the east coast, otherwise mainly only some cloud cover.  The front will come down almost straight from the north to be followed by rapid turn to NE and eventually ENE wind; as such, the East Coast will be spared  much in the cold air department with return flow off the Atlantic.

FRIDAY: Lows in the upper 50Fs to near 60F Brevard and south but cooler inland and even cooler yet still further north. Either way, nothing unusual.

BEYOND: Moderating temperatures to near normal values as another front will slide by perhaps late weekend, but won't go into this one for now. It appears whatever the next front will do will have even less affect than the previous one late Thursday with an even less chance of rain.

IN SUMMARY: Beyond next weekend it appears Central/South Florida is 'out of the woods' in the Cold Air Department up through Mid - February.