Rain/Thunder Chance Sunday - Tuesday : Winteresque Wednesday

White Egret / The Cove at Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Old frontal boundary that slid through last evening has lost steam across South Florida. Chance of a shower or two mainly far SW Florida today. Otherwise, light easterly wind today and sunny to partly cloudy with pleasant temperatures. Might see an increase in cloud cover near the east coast for East Central as satellite imagery does show the potential for more clouds to advect onshore (see image below).  

REMINDER: Daylight savings time begins at 2AM Sunday morning.

TONIGHT: Old boundary will be drawn back north in advance of the next disturbance approaching from the west. The boundary will act as a 'warm front' more or less and appears might lift back as far north as a Cedar Key - Ormond Beach line , though how far north it actually gets will be important in regard to how far north a 'thunder chance' will exist on Sunday. Will ride with that for now.

SUNDAY: Net affect of the lifting boundary will be for increasing moisture (from yesterday's and today's rather parched conditions) and increasing cloud cover going into mid afternoon. Surface based instability looks meager at best but for near the east coast, but cold air aloft will be present coupled with mid-upper level 'energy' (vorticity) in association with the first disturbance. Exactly when the effect of said disturbance will be realized (and there might be more than even two of them going into Tuesday) is hard to say, but for Central to Southern parts of Florida appears it could be as soon as noon to as late as 3-4PM. The later  the better chances of thunder chances. Either way, increasing cloud cover and at least rain chances increase later on Sunday but not for everyone.

MONDAY: Not all said and done just yet. Cold front still 36 hours away at least as yet another disturbance gets kicked by over-heard. This day might see much more cloud cover, and precipitation timing is much less certain though late morning to evening almost anytime is possible at this point. Again, chance of thunder. If better heating is realized this day, might see an isolated strong storm or two.

TUESDAY: yet again like Monday with still a rain chance for Central up to early afternoon or so. The latest guidance seems to imply a frontal passage sometime early evening or just before dark when much drier air and NW wind brings in a taste of early February to the air.

WEDNESDAY: Cool start with interior lows in the mid-upper 40Fs and closer to 50-54F beaches. Rather breezy NW wind dying down some toward sunset. Below normal afternoon highs - this time of year gets tricky as sometimes models under-estimate how warm it could get. GFS implies barely breaking 60F degrees this day, though numerical guidance has no problem with mid-upper 60Fs. Wouldn't be surprised however if was only see a 64F at best.

" Hey, Who Forgot to Close the Refrigerator Door ?!"

THURSDAY: Much cooler yet still with lows in mid-40Fs and upper 40Fs to near 52F beach side. Highs perhaps around 65F - 68F? (but at least the wind will not be an issue)

FRIDAY -INTO NEXT WEEKEND: Continued very cool mornings but at least the wind will be close to NIL or only very light by this time, even Thursday. Warming into the afternoons from lower 70Fs heading toward upper 70Fs by the end of the weekend. No rain foreseen at this rate for NEXT weekend.