Chance of Showers/Thunderstorms Late Today through Mid-Day Friday

Evening Storm Off Shore Cape Canaveral, Florida  - May 5, 2015

TODAY: Rather complex forecast in regard to timing of 'potential' rainfall periods and intensities thereof today from late afternoon toward early afternoon Friday. Will use this post to describe one of the possible  scenarios that at time is being implied will evolve across two particular models --the NAM (North American Mesoscale Model) and the HRRR (High Resolution Rapid Refresh)

Current initial boundary producing rains and some lightning across Western Panhandle (see below image)  is advancing east. This boundary itself is not expected to have a 'direct' impact on peninsular Florida. 

During the day increasing SW Flow just above the surface should abet in propagating the west coast sea breeze well beyond the spine of the state while the east coast sea breeze runs more parallel to the coast with a much slower inland progression. 

Sea breeze convergence coupled with sufficient instability and slowly  increasing winds aloft coupled with seasonably cooler air aloft could set off a broken line of heavy rainstorms and/or thunderstorms up and down the east coast from near Daytona Beach and southward sometime after 5PM toward 7PM. Further west expect mainly showers along the leading edge of the west coast sea breeze , mainly near Rte 27 and eastward.

Some storms (near or east of I-95) might end up being on the 'strong side'  , mainly from Central Volusia southward due to the better chance of low level convergence/forcing along the sea breeze and less late afternoon cloud cover in those areas.

TONIGHT: Meanwhile, a cold frontal boundary will still be on the approach toward Central Florida prior to sunrise Friday. Timing on the boundary is still a bit sketchy though it will clear all of Central before mid-late afternoon .

Latest NAM guidance has been consistent on potential rains and even thunder to enter into the region south of I-4 near sunrise but then again, could be delayed toward noon time or so. The areas most likely to be impacted by this secondary boundary appear will be north of the Ft Pierce area and south of line running from Jacksonville toward Cedar Key on the west coast (see below).

 Again, there is the remote chance of stronger storms especially along the more northern areas (e.g., near to just north of I-4), but then again possibly toward Central as well if the boundary is delayed until late morning. 

FRIDAY NIGHT: Either way, rain chances will end all areas from North to South - first by mid -morning , North..then late morning to early afternoon North Central..to Central to South Central heading toward mid-late afternoon. Clearing sky conditions systematically work in behind the end of the rainfall, but exactly when a good dose of sunshine will be the prevalent mode is uncertain.

 With these rains as noted thus will end the last chance of rain for the state for many days to come, at least for over a week to 10 days.

SATURDAY/SUNDAY: Clearing skies  on Saturday but much cooler with lows in the upper 50Fs to lower  60Fs ; highs in the 70Fs with a westerly wind. 

Sunday will start out also cool but warm to near normal in the afternoon with highs in the lower-mid 80Fs interior and closer to upper 70Fs close to the east coast as winds become more north to north-northeast and weaken.