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| Sunday Morning Paddle Out |
The increased humidity with dry air aloft and a mid-level capping means nearly hot AND humid as well, over the interior during early to mid afternoon. The high down by Miami proper yesterday was 98F if that was harbinger.
Today very warm with wide spread mid-90Fs inland and some isolated upper 90Fs down along the St John's River Valley Basin west of JAX into Central and parts of South Western Central Florida as well; warmest locations appears will be near and north of the Orlando area.
Otherwise, though moisture is lacking at time it is increasing hence higher dew points and a more humid feel to the day will be at hand as opposed to what it was like on Friday and Saturday. Temperatures aloft are a bit warm so hard to see how deep convection (thunderstorms) could get really going today, even rain showers. On the other hand, with sea/lake breeze convergence at play with the moisture to continue increasing...there could be some 'accidents' today resulting in showers across South West Florida and up along or near Rte 27 to west side of Orlando and/or even as far north/east as Western Volusia county after dark. That would be on the high end of the rain-chance potential spectrum, to maybe even have some lightning "Central very late". On the lower end of the spectrum potential is very little rain chance much of anywhere.
TUESDAY: Again, warm with a better chance of shower/storms as noted in previous blog post several days ago. Guidance is still rather bullish on overall coverage and is shifting around on where rain will fall. Will side with the more consistent GFS and place the better rain chances near to west of I-95 from Indian River County and north toward St Augustine late in the day with isolated potential any other interior location. Temperatures aloft are expected to be much cooler tomorrow , instability sufficient, and moisture still in place.
There is a bit of an easterly push aloft in place which might put the east coast beaches into the 'rain chance' realm after dark (though it would be light, unless things change between today and tomorrow which is always possible).
WEDNESDAY: Again, like Tuesday with seemingly an even better rain chance of sea breeze convergence activities up and down more of the peninsula but again favoring the more northern 1/2 to 2/3 of the state over Interior regions. Again, chance of a push back toward the east coast or at least anvil/debris blow off making for cloudier conditions toward or after dark on the east coast north of Lake Okeechobee.
THURSDAY: Perhaps again a chance of thunder/rain however upper level cloud cover from cirro-stratus or alto-cumulus cloud decks might actually put a big strain of whether storms can even form, especially going into Friday-Sunday. ON the other hand, increased cloud cover means not nearly as hot for afternoon high temperatures. Will hold off on specifics for this time frame in regard to rain/storm locations or their favor-ability due to the potential of the aforementioned cloud cover coming into play make rain chances nearly nil except in some locations. Even without cloud cover this day, the more western side of the state is favored.
Heading into the weekend might not hurt to be watching for showers closer to the coast in the early morning hours toward late morning though afternoon rain chances might be on the decrease due to hints of increasing upper level cloud cover possibly all weekend. That would mean, 'so much for a completely sunny weekend' -- unlike our previous one.
Does all of the above said spell "Wet Season!"? Not necessarily just yet though 'climatologically' it can and has begun this soon, but also much later into the second week of June. The GFS implies what looks like the more 'assured' reality of the Wet Season and hence drought relief to be more likely heading toward the June 3-5 time frame and beyond so either way it won't be long now.
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