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| Thunderstorm Erupts over West Cocoa as a Result of Seabreeze and Outflow Collisions |
TODAY: Soundings came in with high precipitable water content once again (surprise surprise) and almost no steering of which to speak of. Atmosphere was not terribly unstable at the low levels however upper levels are still rather cool.
The CAPE came in with a convective temperature of only 82F but surrounding areas were running around 86F to 87F. Models are not breaking out any true rainfall of convective nature until after sea breezes get going and more so as they approach each other accompanied by areal lake breezes well inland going toward mid-afternoon which makes sense.
The only fly in the ointment in regard to 'location of best rainfall' chances appears with the late morning visible satellite image showing the best clearing over the North Half of the state but the southern area might begin to catch up in the 'clearing' department over the next few hours. What effect that might have on the potential for slightly stronger and heavier storms cannot say as there are no indications that this clearing will have much affect on future outcomes which looks suspect. More clearing means better heating and as a result more heat energy to add some punch to the activity that does manage to erupt.
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| Undulatus Type Altocumulus Over The Ocean This Morning |
Models are generally focusing on the direct spine of the state running north - south almost anywhere to get the heaviest rainfall in the form of thunder and showers with inevitably 'some location' getting the lions share going toward late day into sunset.
So far an area not far from where that happened to be last night is in favor again, namely the Osceola/Polk/part of Orange/Southern Lake Counties, but not exclusively for bigger totals,noting that there will also be areas that won't see a drop today, with that mostly likely being anywhere along any coast.
The wind aloft is still strong from the west above the storm steering level, so either way you look at it by day's end most areas will end up with high to mid level overcast conditions outside of the rain fall areas.
SUNDAY: Not too much change this day but thinking is that rainfall might be able to occur over a better expanse, 'and/or' it might come in the form of slightly 'healthier thunderstorms' than it will today .
MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: A frontal boundary will drop to the Deep South and toward the North Florida border going toward the Wednesday time frame. By Monday and especially Tuesday-Wednesday - Thursday storm steering will be from the west southwest to southwest at 15-20kts (as opposed to almost non-existent like today/tomorrow) which will push activity to the east coast locations.
Some days might have an 'early onset' meaning no waiting until 4-5pm to get your chance of rain and thunder in.
On Wednesday some storms 'might' be on the stronger side if the 'GFS" gets its way with more unstable and colder aloft as opposed to this 'sunk in the muck' non-descript type of atmospheric puddle we are currently under.
BEYOND: GFS brings the frontal boundary down to South Florida greatly diminishing rain chances for the north half of the state for a day or two, only to lift it back north and increase chances once again.
Not sure if the ECMWF (European) takes it as far south as that though. We are talking now at Thursday of next week, so plenty of time for things to change. Either way, the rain chances do not appear to be going away much anytime soon or if so for very long...and in regard to next week they only increase (especially for 'anywhere east coast').
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