TODAY: Slight 'improvement' in the rain chance category over the Interior today, mainly for North and North Central to parts of Central.
Morning soundings at MIA/Tampa/and KSC all came in with a shallower dry layer air in the mid levels at and above 700mb , though there is still an inversion it is not as strong. Temperatures aloft at the standard 700mb/500mb levels have cooled 2C to 2.5C as well with 700mb no longer reading the difficult to penetrate 11C but rather around 8.5C at the Cape. This should allow showers to form more readily except where a thin veil of higher clouds is currently located over parts of North Central (and as seen below).
Last evening a storm or two lasted well into the evening where remaining boundaries interacted across regions that retained some instability during the day and suspect the same will hold true this evening as at this time of year small patterns of 2-3 days tend to repeat themselves in the absence of any large (synoptic scale ) invasions or changes. Image shown above is but a general representation of where the better chance of thunder might occur, but not necessarily exclusively so.
MONDAY: Aforementioned frontal boundary mentioned in previous post now near the Florida/Georgia border will be undergoing frontalysis as it is forced toward Central Florida on Tuesday. In the interim, another day of storms , some possibly 'strong' mainly near to north of I-4 is in the cards as colder air aloft starts to over take that region. For now it looks like 'possibly stronger than usual' storms will be along the east half of the spine of the state or close to the St Johns River Valley basin west of JAX southward toward Interior Volusia and Seminole to Orange Counties. More activity possible elsewhere down to Lake Okeechobee.
TUESDAY: Again frontal boundary as of the last GFS model to make it to about Titusville or Canaveral toward Sarasota before losing all identity later in the day. Stronger storms possible most anywhere on this day across the same regions as the day before but with an even closer favoring toward the East Coast with some making it off the coast mainly from near South Daytona northward. Increasing cloud cover as well most areas by later in the day, though more than likely the morning will start off with more clouds as well from remnant debris clouds lingering from the day before yet to have been completely dissipated.
WEDNESDAY: Easterly flow starts to take hold through the remainder of the week favoring the west side of the state for afternoon/evening thunderstorms through Friday, with a remote chance of an early to mid morning shower at the beaches in isolated fashion mainly from the Cape south before noon time.
WEEKEND: Appears we could enter a phase, especially by Sunday that will continue to favor the west side but will also manifest storm coverage over much of the interior as flow could become less easterly and more southerly in nature. All but the areas east of I95 could see storms though the further south one goes the more to the west the storms will be as the Atlantic ridge axis meanders between Dead Central northward up to the Florida/GA border at this time; quite typical of a summer like pattern.
FOURTH OF JULY: Looks like a typical summer time pattern will be fully in place with showers/thunder possible driven mainly be sea/lake breezes (at least for now), and remaining over the interior with perhaps a leaning that would favor more toward the east side of the state later in the day into early evening (though it's too early to say for certain as guidance this far out is extremely inconsistent )
No comments:
Post a Comment