Pattern Change Begins Sunday Night - But Until Then...

Sunrise Friday Morning

TODAY: Another variation of the same theme since the post-tropical wave passage of Wednesday. Easterly flow will pile up moisture along the west coast, especially near to even west of I75 in the mid-late afternoon where the strongest thunderstorms will occur. Elsewhere sufficient moisture was in place for some showers earlier today, even some thunder from South Brevard on southward, but overall the air mass especially North Brevard northward is too dry in the mid-levels to produce much than a small rain shower in the absence of any synoptic scale disturbances.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Not much overall change to this pattern. The GFS shows East Central Florida to be 'especially dry' all things considered, whereas South Florida might see a surge of moisture on Sunday for greater coverage there. Otherwise, the Panhandle and spots along the west coast later in the day are the better areas for thunder with the spine of the state westward all potential clients of at least a rain shower.

SUNDAY NIGHT- MONDAY: Trough of low pressure over the northeast states (aloft) will carve south enough to shift the low level ridge axis to South Central Florida ending the easterly flow of recent days ..which will result  in morning offshore winds mainly north of West Palm (though quite light)..while the mid-level ridge aloft will meander somewhere across South Central to Central Direct. Thus, expect to wake up early to a completely different scenario at sunrise than will be the case the next two more mornings.

This overall scheme of things especially sets in around Tuesday, though there are some variations of the theme  in location as to where the ridge axis will be on any given day in particular;  it's just too soon to get into the nitty-gritty details. However, the scene is set it now appears for a new pattern to be established for several consecutive days in the next coming wee.

Overall, the period of MONDAY-FRIDAY appears will be one that sea breezes from both coasts will be at hand with enough moisture to play with, especially as they begin to converge on the center of the state with some days perhaps acquiring a slight leaning tendency to favor toward the east  just a bit for rainstorm and thunderstorm coverage. No days so far show enough of an easterly push for storms to work the whole way off the coast though, so many coastal locations (meaning within 1/2 mile of the beach) could well remain dry almost this entire upcoming week. Suspect many afternoons will end with much cloud cover however from anvil debris (at least)...and some outflows from inland might work their ways to the beaches...producing at least some showers.

Must point out that as this time approaches the forecast each day will greatly be contingent upon smaller scale parameters and localized 'events' such as outflow boundaries, lake/sea breezes, as well as exactly WHEN the early day activity actually gets going. All it takes is for a cluster of earlier day activity, even before sunrise (e.g. toward the Cedar Key area on the west coast)..to throw a wrench in the forecast for the entire day for some areas, especially in regard to the timing of when the best chances of rain will be. In other words, this time frame could be categorized as one of the 'typical summer' patterns, of which there are several.

TROPICS: The GFS is picking up on a tropical disturbance to enter the picture (potentially) by early next week to be located over the Western Caribbean region in general and to continue moving west and north in the general direction of South Florida in days to come; however, variations to this theme are already cropping up to include a tropical storm or even low end hurricane to curve well before reaching the state. 

The thing to consider is that it by that time it is not out of the question for tropical storms to begin to play a larger role in the long term forecast as we find our way out of the ' early-mid July lull".