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| October, 2015: Arcus and Attendant Shelf Descend from the North on Cape Canaveral |
Already, cloud cover is over-coming South Florida while the gathering storm is still well to the south as can be seen below. A distinct closed circulation was a bit hard to see last I looked, regardless one can trace with the eye the attempt of it's coming together as a bona-fide cyclone even now.
Below is ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY as of 10AM
THIS AFTERNOON: Warm Central/North Central before cloud cover takes over announcing the coming changes. Rains with potential stronger activity will occur first toward Far SW Florida and around the Keys working to the east coast. Then work north with time.
POINT OF NOTE AS SEEN IN THE "BLOG" FORECAST: The 'sketchy' area of most interest from my perspective is shown generally to be in the 'White Box'. This area is the more 'upon certain conditions area' which might or might not occur zone.
To the South it looks more certain for at least the chance of larger rainfall totals in some areas, especially along and south of a line from Vero Beach toward Sarasota. The 'White Box zone" addresses a concern of the chance of better instability and upper level shear coming into play in that area after 9PM through 2AM in the morning (mostly) as the cold front and attendant very sharp upper level trough begin to enter the picture. Model consistency has been honing in on the region further south, but must add that in the past 2 days over 8 model runs of the GFS/NAM that area has spread out a bit and seemed to be being lifted north bit by bit. The point being is this:
The weather to impact the majority of the state will not be directly related to any tight circulation with might be linked to TBD Philippe. The mid level circulation appears will be stretched well to the Northeast of any surface circulation of " unknown at this time strength" as the system encounters upper level shear from the approaching trough
AS SUCH WITH THIS PHILOSOPHY: Suspect the risk of stronger activity, even the risk of larger rainfall totals up to maybe 4" could occur as far north as a line from Canaveral toward a region south of Clearwater beginning very late after dark, with light rain before that time. There is a risk of a 'quick change in the turn of events' as time goes on after the 8pm time frame, with the Caveat to such events that far north being indicated as being 'White Boxed".
Thus, the 'white box zone'. Again, that area is a 'conditional risk' though frankly almost all of what might occur today is rather conditioned upon several factors making it difficult to be more precise in where what will happen when and to what degree.
Therefore, this post is taking the broad-brush approach to encapsulate in general terms all potentialities.
As usual, all interests for pain or pleasure should consult the NWS information and/or local media viz. their radar interpretation musing for more information later today. South Central sometime beyond 3PM and more toward the Central/North Central after 7PM onward.
SUNDAY: Cold front to move through all of the state early in the day. Most rain will be over prior to sunrise all area but for perhaps along the east coast Vero and South. As skies begin to clear so too will the wind pick up from the NW. Chance we might see Lake Wind Advisories being hoisted for gusts about 32mph, once clouds clear and mixing of the lower mid-levels winds attempt to work to the surface.
Some guidance is showing wind at only 5000 feet to be near 35 kts so there is always the risk we could see gusts above 30 mph , even 35 mph for a short -time from early afternoon-sunset. Highs generally in the lower 70Fs.
MONDAY: This morning might be even cooler than the previous cool spell, with wind mixed in. Generally looking at some upper 40Fs well inland/interior north, with more widespread lower to mid 50Fs elsewhere. The afternoon might also struggle to break 70F in some locations, but we'll see. Wind will have already decreased some at daybreak Monday, and will likely continue to progressively decrease through out the day. By sunset wind will be light and skies clear.
TUESDAY: Day breaks mainly clear and a bit warmer at the coast then the day before. If not, at least the wind factor will be absent and within two hours after sunrise the temperature should quickly rise toward the mid 70Fs, no issue. Tuesday looks to be a fine day. No tricks, all treats.
WEDNESDAY - BEYOND: Wind becomes easterly and slowly increases as high pressure either to the north of the state or over the Atlantic (take your pic) have influence over Florida for quite some time to come. Temperatures to be in the normal range of lower (nterior) to upper 60Fs to near 70F (east coast) and highs in the lower to maybe even mid 80Fs going toward next weekend.
By Thursday or Friday might see some isolated low topped inconsequential showers work ashore for a few days as well.
Latest Guidance indicates that we could be seeing normal to above temperatures to at least mid November, if not much longer than that . Not possible to know for certain.
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