Showers / Thunder Possible Central/North Late - Above Normal Temperatures Continue

February 24 2014 - Cape Canaveral

TODAY: Not much change from previous reasoning. Low level surface ridge axis across far South Florida combined with closest approach to the north of upper level trough will yield a general SSW flow aloft while sea breezes will still be permitted to become active. Slight surface based instability with very cool air aloft but with poor lapse rates in the mid levels could still yield some thunder where greatest upward forcing occurs late today toward interior Central/East Central up toward eastern portions of North Central (Volusia County) the vicinity of the west-east coast sea breeze collision zone where best surface based instability will also be present after a full day of heating. 

Otherwise, continued warm with temperatures averaging 10-15F degrees above climatological norms for this time of year. At this time of year in history past there has been historic freeze events (only to emphasize how varied one year can be from the next).

Best chance of showers will be approximately 10 miles from any coast "South to most of Central Florida" but with a working toward the immediate coast mainly from Central Brevard northward. A thunder might occur near the Lake Okeechobee / Sea Breeze collision boundary  South Central but the greater focus appears to be in the Orlando/Osceola County region to east side of Orlando, maybe even working toward I-95 Central Brevard most likely near to after dark. After sunset would 'expect' the activity would quickly dwindle (at least in regard to lightning chance) with some strangling in-cloud lightning aloft remaining a possibility with thunder audible some areas.

Activity could potentially work offshore Volusia County as thunder and rain showers from Central Brevard northward is not entirely out of the question.

Many areas will not see rain at all today but those that do it will be a welcome sight for days ahead appear to continue to be on the dry side, as would be generally expected this time of year.

MONDAY- TUESDAY: Dry most areas and continued warm. Best chance of showers or maybe some thunder mainly interior western parts of North Central up toward I-10. (Lake County, areas around Ocala, Gainesville). This will occur as the ridge axis currently far South Florida lifts toward North Florida putting the majority of the state under a light easterly flow pattern. Thus, coastal afternoon temperatures will continue to be greatly modified by cool air advection off the near shore Atlantic waters making for 10F or less degree variations between overnight temperatures and afternoon highs at the beaches.

WEDNESDAY-NEXT SUNDAY: Little change in temperatures with dry conditions. A frontal boundary to ease down the state in a rather  ' backdoor fashion ' will modify temperatures just a bit come Friday into Saturday time frame with little to no fanfare. Saturday might be a bit cooler with a recovery on Sunday at least as is currently being reflected by the GFS model. Even so, those cooler temperatures will still be above 'normal' and not below the 64F mark overnight (interior).

FURTHER OUT: Any big cold blasts from the past on the horizon? Yes and No. Very long range climactic model guidance has at times been showing 'much colder' coming into the first or second week of March which is questionable given how far out in time that projection is. It is not unusual to have a very cool to cold spell in the first half (at least ) of March, but usually they are rather short-lived. The trend, however, has been to ease off that potential.