First Day of Spring (Tuesday) Might Come in Like a Roaring Severe Lion

Dandelion , March 17, 2016  

TODAY- SUNDAY: Warming trend has commenced and will continue through Tuesday. Though Sunday and Monday mornings will still be on the cool side, a quick warm up toward mid-morning will ensue, with temperatures running at to just a bit above normal. Atmosphere will gradual moisten a bit so it won't be quite as dry. Meanwhile, a complex mid-upper level low pressure system is already beginning to take shape from the Southern Plains states toward the Southeast states, which will move toward the east coast through Tuesday.
This system will be responsible for severe weather threats across multiple states in the next few days.

MONDAY: The 'risk' of the first of two impulses could impact the state mainly North - North Central areas. Latest GFS is showing sufficient low level instability, cold air aloft, and wind shear aloft to support strong storms mainly north of a line from Clearwater area (west coast) toward Sebastian or Vero Beach (east coast). Better risk will be north of I-4. This day is still questionable as earlier guidance was barely squeezing out a rain shower toward the east coast late in the day. The latest run is much more aggressive so bears watching.

TUESDAY:  Tuesday is the First Day of Spring, beginning at 12:15PM EDT, most fitting for the cliche of March (or Spring) coming in like a Lion and goes out like a Lamb. Any truth to it? Not Really. 

 Risk of severe storms roaring through appears to be increasing.

 GFS has been consistent in the potential now for two days, and the latest run only increased that potential several notches. Ample surface based instability, cold air aloft, and strong speed shear aloft is forecast as the nose of a 120 knot jet stream wind aloft points to passing right over North Central Florida    enhancing lift right during the time of peak heating.  Bulk shear of 50-70kts between 10-20,000 feet aloft added in definitely points to 'Severe Parameters'.  Directional shear is lacking a bit at this point however.

All said parameters align ahead of a prefrontal trough and cold front, with the boundary as it stands now to enter Central Florida during to just after peak heating hours through sunset. Timing of course could easily change on the system during the next 48 anticipated hours, but chances are we will begin to hear about it on the evening local news stations. 

  As of Today the biggest threat appears to be South of I-10 and north of Route 60 or roughly north of a Vero Beach to Sarasota Line on Tuesday. Strong storms possible from a line running toward Melbourne to South Tampa Bay on Monday but this is quite sketchy still.

Given this is still several days out the apparent 'most at risk' area  is subject to change/ intensity modifications. The Storm Prediction Center is already watching all of Central Florida on Tuesday for a 'severe risk' with parts of North Florida on Monday.

WEDNESDAY - BEYOND: Cooler and breezy Wednesday into Thursday. Coldest air does not reach the peninsula until over night Wednesday through all of Thursday into Friday. Looks like temperatures will cool to below normal once again, but not as cold as this last go around. At this stage it looks like we'll recover to near normal temperature range a bit quicker as well, so that by the weekend all will be 'near normal'. No other rain chances in sight at least until Easter time frame (at least).