'Poof! Just Like That': A Vanishing Rain Chance Act - Means More Heat

June 23rd, 2015 - Prolific Arcus Feat Entombed Cape Canaveral

TODAY: The long and short of it today is - 'Change of Plans'.
 In less than 24 hours the 'heralded rain chance per the GFS for days' suddenly vanished. 

The short range guidance so far is following in line. There is a glimmer of hope for those who want a 'cool down' from now what will otherwise result in being another hot day (warmer than yesterday inland since there will be less cloud cover from yesterday), however.

 Instability will be strong today and lapse rates rather steep both in the lower and mid levels. Now there is all things working for us to produce storms, but one minor problem - lack of overall moisture up through the mid-levels right where the steep lapse rates will be today, as 500mb temperatures might fall nearly to -10C (a good ingredient for strong/severe storms). 

The short term guidance is showing the chances of some 'showers' going up late in the day along the east coast sea breeze, but whether that be 'showers', an 'enhanced batch of clouds', or a 'full blown storm' cannot be known at this stage. Going with persistence , will go with 'clouds'. If we see showers some lucky few will see them in from the coast. If per chance a full blown storm goes up, look out! If any do, they (or it) will be very isolated.

Temperature wise, another warm one today but for the coast where the east coast sea breeze will lower the 'what would be otherwise' temperature by a good 10F. 

Mid-afternoon temperatures yesterday for example right near the coast under the cloud cover were around 84F, but with full sun today even that will be warmer today. Away from the sea breeze, different story with dangerous heat indices, and highs in the mid-90Fs possibly even higher.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Again, these days are now coming in drier (and warmer) as a result. The heat continues 

WEDNESDAY-BEYOND: Details sketchy, but in general appears to approach a more typical 'summer like regime'. Sea breeze convergence over the interior. Folks at the coast remain dry other than possibly along Southeast Florida area (mainly south of Ft Pierce) whereLake - Sea Breeze induced activity might be able to get under way. Steering aloft will be close to nothing so would not expect to see a good 'push back' to the coast (either West or East Coast).

THE Next pattern change is showing up (for now) to begin next weekend, with a more definite push of activity toward and off the east coast. At least for now that is how it looks.

TROPICS: No hints of any tropical threats and wouldn't expect to see any now until we reach August. June ended up being a 'tropical dud' with only one 'questionably' named 'system'.