Risk of Strong to Marginal Severe Storms Eastern Peninsula

Arcus On the Leading edge of the Gust Front - Cape Canaveral, June 11, 2014

TODAY: Final stages of the current weather pattern of the past several days will be set in motion as inferred in a previous post would be the case.

 That being, the former area of low pressure over the Deep South would be lifted out only to be replaced by a secondary digging of its supporting upper level trough  as Jet Stream winds from Canada plunge down the back side of the trough, causing it to 'dig deeper' once again, with the net effect of 500mb heights lowering (and consequently upper level temperatures going down / becoming colder once again).  In other words, though the state was in a bit of a respite yesterday (in-between stages) the reinvigorated trough appears will be back to center stage today and tomorrow for much of the state.

To note: The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is already 'outlooking' the northern part of the peninsula with a "Marginal Risk" but it appears  that the greater 'Risk' will be along the east coast of Florida south of Ormond Beach (though an isolated strong to severe is not out of the question at all toward the JAX area either).

Guidance is continuously showing moderate to high Convective Available Potential Energy today (CAPE), especially along and south of I-4. Cloud cover might hinder regions further north due to early day activity already in progress  along the Gulf Coast spreading its cloud over across the Northern peninsula. 

Accompanying this greater CAPE will be cooler temperatures aloft, and 'nary the chance a sea breeze will be able to form today?' 

That is the Big Question, especially north of Vero Beach
. Suspect it will be able to form from Canaveral , southward.  

The image above shows the 'early morning' outlook from the SPC (will be interesting to see what their later outlooks reveal. Those will be coming out around 8:30AM and 12:30PM locally) coupled with the blogger's 'other area of interest'.

For "Blogging Purposes" more interested in the region shown below in 'Red" for a 'risk' of Isolated Strong to Marginally 'Severe' . 

Noting that not all will even get rained on today. Key word is 'Isolated'..but nonetheless, in and near any said storm wind gusts of 40 mph + are possible and in them stronger wind and/or small hail up to 'severe' possible (1.00 inch in diameter or more). We might be hearing reports of 'funnel clouds' today as well.

THURSDAY: Thursday might well hold the same sort of "RISK" potential for a similar area, other than the region north of I-4 might be 'in the clear for severe' altogether as a frontal boundary will be working southward to reach Central by late morning Friday where it 'withers and fades'...that is, goes under frontalysis.

FRIDAY:  Pattern change to come into full effect during the course of the day. 

Onshore east coast breezes to come back by mid-morning (or earlier). though winds in the 'storm steering level' remain weakly from west to east. 

The word is that the regime will favor 'all west coast' by late in the day', but am questioning if that will be the case truly, especially across Central Florida.

 Appears more like a better set up for Storms to favor SR 27 to right down the spine of the state with a drift toward the east coast in the early evening.

WEEKEND: Might start to see late night to early - mid morning activity move ashore along the east coast. Sunday could be temporarily 'wet' for many east coast locations for a brief time,even prior to noon or shortly thereafter from on shore moving showers, perhaps even with thunder. In short, don't be surprised if it rains over night Saturday night or Sunday night, or even prior to noon time Sunday-Monday for those along the east half of the state especially right at the coast.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: Activity to favor the west coast mostly, but rather isolated as moisture might be lacking.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Storms might again favor the east coast.