TODAY: Little change from yesterday's post - ETA is emerging off the North Central Cuban Coast late this morning. Weakening occurred over the mountainous terrain but strengthening and organization even further highly expected throughout the day and into this evening, early Monday.
RAIN CHANCES: Given the weakening of system and latest data showing a sharp demarcation line of very moist atmosphere to not nearly as much (nor as deep) expect that most rain today at least in any true measurable amounts will remain over mainly South and far South Central Florida. There could be a few quick sprinkles further north, but for the most part today looks to be a 'status quo with what you got now as of late morning' situation until ETA gets reorganized AND begins to expand its wind field which is still anticipated going into mid-evening tonight through mid-morning Monday.
Expecting the rain chances to almost 'suddenly emerge' into South Central but more specifically from near Ft Pierce northward to North Brevard County after 2-3 AM tonight, with a more discrete/heavier rainstorm/squall quality/nature to it rather than as a predominant rain shield as is currently at play.
This change in nature (if of course it occurs) would be due to a nocturnal wind max in the mid-levels combined with the storm's expanding wind field in the 2000-7000 ft. level above ground adding to helicity and shear as this occurs.
Discrete cells thus will be more likely mid evening tonight (South Florida and moreso toward the wee-hours post-midnight tonight -- especially where the 5000 ft level winds expand/radiate outward from at least Ft Pierce if not further north than that. Thus, for folks north of Ft Pierce the more likely time for this storm activity we've all been hearing about emerges well after midnight but prior to sunrise, Monday.
It is possible storms will acquire rotation coming in off the warm Atlantic water mainly from the Brevard /Volusia County line southward toward Ft Pierce during the course of events. Further south toward West Palm and south the same can be said to occur (more likely) after sunset tonight through midnight.
PLEASE NOTE: This is only a blog post - and not official. Hence, below is the 'Official Forecast" from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) for 'today's' tornado risk area. Also note, the SPC has NO TORNADO RISK (as of now) for any other areas other than what is shown below. They show NO RISK for Monday over Central Florida. In fact, for Monday they only show a small area across far Southwest Florida - that is a big difference worth nothing from what this blog post is reading.
This image above shows SPC's Forecast for TODAY (in green) for 'Tornado Probability'
The HSD Forecast is that this area will begin to validate AFTER 8pm tonight or thereabouts,
mainly for far SOUTHWEST Florida then spread out as we approach midnight and thereafter.
The 'RED AREA" shown is the HSD Forecast as a result for late tonight going into MONDAY
with the area from Ft. Pierce and north more likely after 3AM and into Brevard by 5AM and thereafter into the afternoon.
The only change from yesterday's post was to remove areas further north than Southern Volusia County from the 'Risk Area"
Otherwise, strongest wind gusts/wind in general will likely be restricted to near or over discrete rain cells/squalls. Outside the 'storms' winds will more than likely remain in the 15-30mph range including where the rain takes on a more 'shielded region' form rather than smaller discrete rain storms.
Strongest winds right along the coast will increase for South Central to Central LATE today (more notably) into early evening and remain steady and even increase more steady state going into after midnight coincident with the increased tornado risk. Again, all due to the expanding wind fields as the storm starts to interact with the Florida Peninsula's land mass.
WHEN WILL IT ALL BE OVER? It appears the 'worst of it all' will be on Monday. Thereafter the pressure gradient between ETA and high pressure to the north is to decrease even as ETA weakens (at least temporarily). Going into Monday the bulk of the storm should be over the Southeast Gulf, perhaps infringing upon the far Southwest Florida Coast. There is still a lot to be said for the 'future cast' of ETAs - so this post will avoid going into details that won't verify anyway.
Point being, as far as all of Central Florida is concerned , after Monday the wind overall will be much weaker than will be experienced today into Monday -and rain chances will also decrease (but not entirely). Rain could remain in the forecast into Tuesday, and perhaps we'll have to watch for a small tornado risk at least early Tuesday for some area yet to be revealed. Much depends on the storms future which varies in models anywhere from it becoming a hurricane to nothing more than a weak tropical depression...and where it goes is another 'Big If'...will it cross the state? If so, it could go anywhere from Central Florida to the panhandle, or simply remain over the Gulf and weaken.
Otherwise, temperatures to remain at to slightly above normal (especially overnight) through all of next week and rain chances decrease.
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